2008 Season Predictions Part 3 -- Playoffs

Be sure to read Part 1 and Part 2 to see how I got to this point.



Playoffs:


While I've listed many "strongest lineups" for all the teams, I certainly don't necessarily think all of a team's such lineups are of about the same strength, with certain ones unquestionably stronger than others for certain teams. Even though that is the case, I wouldn't jump into trying to further narrow down what a team's playoff lineup might be since as mentioned, teams often settle into a groove late in the season which may well involve using a lineup which doesn't seem to be their best lineup on paper. Add to that the fact that there are often unique nuances like team's rosters changing mid-season, a player randomly being unavailable for the post-season, and similar such things which can also be a determination of the lineup, and it would be rather bold to try to make too specific assumptions about the lineups because of these issues. Nevertheless, I will attempt to make some guesses as to what might occur in the matches based on the general teams as well as their history for trying to determine who will emerge victorious in December.



Quarterfinals:



Boston Blitz vs. Philadelphia Inventors:


This is a match-up which the Blitz have completely dominated in the first three seasons (5.5 / 6 matches). Now of course several of those matches occurred while the Inventors were playing at a severe disadvantage, but it's still not something to be ignored and add to this the fact that Boston will have draw odds and color choice, I think the Blitz take this.



Queens Pioneers vs. New York Knights:


These "subway" matches always have something special to them, and a playoff match between these two teams definitely will be as such even if isn't in the finals like the Yankees vs. Mets showdowns can often be. Essentially, depending on the style of lineup Queens really uses, I see New York having a decent rating advantage on one of of the bottom boards with the remaining boards being fairly close. Given that, along with the way New York has shown a good tendency to shine in the late season, having won a match facing draw odds in each of the last two playoffs, I think they likely do it again here pulling off the upset.



San Francisco Mechanics vs. Miami Sharks:


A playoff match-up which already has a fairly tremendous history with Miami overcoming the odds in two of the first three seasons to knock off the Mechanics in the post-season despite facing draw odds. Can they do it again or will it be third times the charm for San Francisco? If the Sharks go with one of their "stacked" lineups, it seems they will have a small rating edge on Board Three in exchange for a big disadvantage on Board Four. With one of the more balanced lineups, San Francisco (using current ratings), will have a small edge on both of the bottom boards. Either way, San Francisco seems to get a slight edge, both draw odds and color choice, and knowing the Mechanics' general drive, it seems hard to imagine that with such an advantage that they will allow yet another painful playoff loss to the Sharks. San Francisco advances here.



Dallas Destiny vs. Seattle Sluggers:


These teams had a very interesting playoff encounter in 2006 with Seattle pulling off a miracle save when they appeared to be on the verge of losing yet ended up advancing due to draw odds. If the regular season goes as I've outlined it, then the opposite team will be enjoying the draw odds for this match. What does that mean? Well Dallas's lineups are mostly of a similar shape, but Seattle's three lineup styles are really quite different. From a spectator's perspective, I naturally hope that Seattle chooses to stroll out a double GM lineup so I'll work under the assumption that they'll pull out all the stops and use that here. If so, I see Seattle having a nice edge on the top two boards with Dallas having a reasonable edge on the bottom two. In total I would probably give the slight score advantage to Seattle. Also, no defending champion has even made it back to the Semifinals in the next year and both teams overcame draw odds in the Wildcard Round last year so I think Seattle pulls off the upset here also.



Semifinals:



Boston Blitz vs. New York Knights:


I know readers may not be pleased about me always predicting this to be the East Semifinal Match, but when it continues to be correct and to me is far and away the biggest rivalry in the USCL, it's not unnatural to hope for it either. Unfortunately, I can't rely on my traditional anecdotal evidence to help guide me as I have in many other places, since each team has gotten the better of the other once in the last two such encounters. There is however, one big difference this year should things unfold as I have described. If this match occurs as such, Boston will have both draw odds and color choice. While I feel the ability to choose colors for a particular match can range from very mildly relevant to extremely important depending on the players on the respective teams, I think for the players on these teams, this match falls into the latter category. That being the case, it seems Boston will repeat as Eastern Champions.



San Francisco Mechanics vs. Seattle Sluggers:


A rematch of the 2006 Semifinals; like the other Semifinal, the important difference of the first team receiving both draw odds and color choice could prove quite pertinent here as while I don't feel it's quite as important a consideration as it is in the Boston vs. New York encounter, it definitely is relevant for the players on these teams still. Assuming Seattle again chooses their double GM lineup, it doesn't seem especially dissimilar to the Dallas vs. Seattle Wildcard; again I give Seattle an edge on the top two boards, and San Francisco an edge on the bottom two. However, here I feel the Mechanics edge on Board Four is even larger and with the ability to properly utilize that by picking the color of that board, I think San Francisco takes this.



Finals:



San Francisco Mechanics vs. Boston Blitz:


The structure of how this match might go down, depends greatly on which direction Boston chooses to go in their lineup style, as who is better on what board can really vary. The Blitz seem likely to have the edge on the top board, but two and three really depend on the choices each team makes. However, using current ratings, it seems almost certain that the Mechanics will have a large rating advantage on Board Four. Since I expect them also to edge the Blitz when it comes to regular season record and allow themselves to pick colors for this match, those two jumps will give them what they need to become the first team to repeat as USCL Champions.



Once again, I hope everyone enjoys this USCL Season even more than last season. Good luck to all teams and players involved, and hopefully you all can provide us observers with even more entertainment than you have in the past years. As always, any comments, suggestions, or flames (especially the latter) are appreciated!

2008 Season Predictions Part 2 -- Western Division

Be sure to read Part 1 to see how I am breaking the teams down.



Western Division:



1st Place: San Francisco Mechanics


Strongest Lineups:

1st / 2nd: Two of Wolff / Friedel / Bhat / Pruess / Donaldson
3rd: Shankland
4th: Naroditsky / Young

1st: Bhat
2nd: Pruess
3rd: Donaldson
4th: Naroditsky / Young


Strength / Flexibility: San Francisco continues to stick to the creed of "experience at the top, youth at the bottom", something which has served them very well all three seasons, and it seems probable to do so again this season. The Mechanics definitely have a good array of ways to fill their top two boards as only their Board Three flexibility seeming a possible issue, with it being very likely that Shankland will have to have the vast majority of the action there. However, given his rather over the top overall league performance in the past two seasons, it seems that it would be hard to find someone better suited for the task. Along with him, having World Under 12 Champion Naroditsky and US Junior Co-Champion Young to hold down the bottom board, things look as bright as ever for San Francisco this year. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: The Mechanics seem to have the league easily trumped in this regard. While having a fourth board (Naroditsky) who is around 150 points higher than his league rating might not that be unusual in the league, having a board three also with the same advantage (Shankland) gives them some lineups of really ridiculous strength (not dissimilar to the huge edge Boston had last year with Shmelov and Williams on the bottom boards which lead them to the League Finals). Add to that the fact that Bhat, who by every indication is unquestionably stronger than his league rating, a lineup with all three of them seems rather ridiculous when compared to its probable current strength. I think San Francisco trumps the rest of the league here. Score: 10.

Dedication: I have to also put the Mechanics higher than any other team in this category as I simply know of no other team who puts as much preparation into their matches as the Mechanics and that's really by quite a large margin. They certainly aren't lacking in the unity department either with several of their players training together on a regular basis. I think San Francisco trumps the rest of the league here as well. Score: 10.

Other Factors: The main possible worry for the Mechanics may be of similar nature to last season. With Wolff expecting a child soon along with them having three (!) Samford Fellows on the roster who may well be traveling abroad at some point for further chess pursuits, it's very possible their ability to use the rosters they would really want might be somewhat compromised (something which may well have happened in last year's heartbreaking Wildcard loss). Score: 5.


Total Score: 33
Projected Record: 7 – 3



2nd Place: Dallas Destiny


Strongest lineups:

1st / 2nd: Two of Boskovic / Zivanic / Kuljasevic / Bartholomew / Stopa
3rd: Shneider / Vedrickas
4th: Zorigt

1st / 2nd: Two of Zivanic / Kuljasevic / Bartholomew
3rd: Stopa
4th: Zorigt


Strength / Flexibility: Dallas definitely seems to have taken an unusual path with their roster; giving themselves a great amount of choices on how to fill out the top boards, but only a single way to ever fill out the bottom (except when using alternates). Granted Zorigt, being an All Star last year, is almost certainly not a bad choice to fill such big shoes, but it nevertheless does raise concerns about their general flexibility. I still really like their rosters in general, especially those with Stopa on Board Three (and such rosters certainly showcased their power last year on the way to the Championship). While the fact that Stopa didn't play an excessive amount last season might be a concern, he did in the most important matches for them, and if he's available to do so again, Dallas may well be the first repeat champions. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: Once again, with many of their players not having played a great amount in the US, it's difficult to gauge how accurate their ratings might be. One can however make some pretty reasonable assumptions based on their league play, and I think it's safe to say that both Kuljasevic and Stopa fit the bill here. Score: 7.

Dedication: With UTD having won every Collegiate Championship one (at least me) can remember and their players basically all from those teams, obviously they have the knowledge of what it takes to win at team events and likely the team unity to match. Granted, this is probably a much more level playing field than they deal with in the college tourneys but still a key ingredient for them. One does often forget though that while the Dallas players are in something of a chess environment, they are still at the core all students whose most difficult part of the semester likely occurs around playoff time. Score: 7.

Other Factors: The previous two defending champions really didn't come close to repeating (neither making the Semifinals), and I'm sure Dallas is looking to change that. It is unfortunate for them that their Championship Roster from last season (Boskovic + Kuljasevic + Stopa + Zorigt) can't be used again this year, but given the addition of Zivanic and the continued presence of Bartholomew, that may well not be much of a detraction. Score: 8.


Total Score: 30
Projected Record: 6 – 4



3rd Place: Seattle Sluggers


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Nakamura
2nd: Serper
3rd: Readey / Lee / Sinanan
4th: May

1st: Nakamura / Serper
2nd: Tangborn
3rd: Mikhailuk
4th: May

1st: Nakamura / Serper
2nd: Tangborn / Mikhailuk
3rd / 4th: Two of Readey / Lee / Sinanan

(can't use Nakamura + Tangborn + Readey + Lee)


Strength / Flexibility: One can only postulate about how much Nakamura might play, but assuming he does so regularly, the double GM lineups Seattle can throw at their opponents look very dangerous. Even if that doesn't happen often, Seattle still has a very flexible collection of lineups headed by a single GM which have always been very solid in the past, and there's no reason why that should change now. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: Seattle has really had their big trumps on Board Four in this category in the first two seasons, and they have one again with May, but this year they seem to have also spread this luxury out a bit. Adding the highest rated player in the league, Nakamura, to the team, Serper who has turned in near All Star performances in both seasons, and the still underrated Lee, now probably mostly playing on Board Three, they seem to have a good distribution of underrated players to take advantage of in every spot. Score: 8.

Dedication: With their top player Nakamura residing a few hours away, it seems unlikely there will be much preparation involved when using him. I know he has stated his desire to do better this season, and I'm sure most hope along with me that that is indeed the case, as if he can perform at his true strength, Seattle could well be the best team in the league. While of course there are reasons to be skeptical if that will be true, I think the rest of the Seattle team has shown a good amount of dedication in their first two seasons so they should have no reason to fear. Score: 5.

Other Factors: Seattle, due in large part to their late starting matches, has always been one of the lesser watched teams. However, the addition of Nakamura seems likely to take them from the low end of the spectrum to the top in a hurry. If the Sluggers can feed off the general energy that his playing is certain to create while also maintaining their general solid nature, the mix could provide what Seattle needs to rise back to the top in 2008. Score: 7.


Total Score: 28
Projected Record: 5.5 – 4.5



4th Place: Miami Sharks


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Becerra
2nd / 3rd: Two of Martinez / Lopez / Lugo / Perea
4th: Perez

1st: Becerra
2nd: Martinez / Lopez / Lugo / Perea
3rd: Galofre
4th: Rodriguez

1st / 2nd / 3rd: Three of Martinez / Lopez / Lugo / Perea
4th: Galofre / Rodriguez

(can't use Martinez + Lopez + Galofre here)


Strength / Flexibility: Another very unusual roster as the Sharks seem to be somewhat sacrificing strength for a huge amount of flexibility. Using a player of rating 1860 (though 1960 currently) is simply unheard of in the league. It's really tough to tell how using a lineup of a 2650, two 2500s, and an 1860 (Becerra + Martinez + Lopez + Perez) would really fare in the long term against the more traditional lineups of other teams but that will undoubtedly be put to the test this season. Hopefully the Sharks can also finally field a lineup without their star Becerra which isn't at a severe rating disadvantage as they've really suffered the few times in the last two seasons when they've had to play without him. Score: 7.

Underrated Players: I often chastised Miami, like Baltimore, for not having a strong underrated player on the bottom board. Well they definitely have attempted to satisfy me, but I wasn't really anticipating they would do it in this fashion. Perez, while obviously an underrated and improving player, will still clearly be at a severe rating disadvantage in nearly all his games. On the other hand, if he can score a reasonable amount, Miami nearly by necessity will be a super powerful team, especially with two time MVP Becerra leading them. Score: 7.

Dedication: This has undoubtedly been the area where the Sharks have had huge problems with in the past couple of seasons, with many players canceling last minute putting them at a huge disadvantage both in terms of average rating and time penalties. That along with other responsibilities distracting their regulars (Miami Open and the Puerto Rico tournament) has been apt to put the Sharks in a hole. It's fervently hoped that the former issue will not be occurring again this season with their revitalized lineup, but the latter still seems likely to cause some issues. Score: 6.

Other Factors: Miami was definitely last year's Cinderella story, overcoming a 1 – 4 start to make it to the Semifinals. The league only seems to grow stronger as time passes which inevitably make it more difficult for any team to dig themselves out of a big early season hole. I have a feeling the first few matches showcasing the new Miami team will be very telling as to what path they will take this season. Score: 6.


Total Score: 26
Projected Record: 5 – 5



5th Place: Arizona Scorpions


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Barcellina / Altounian
2nd: Aldama
3rd: Harper
4th: Martinez

1st: Barcellina / Altounian
2nd: Ginsburg / Rensch
3rd: Adamson
4th: Harper

(can't use Barcellina + Ginsburg here)

1st: Aldama
2nd / 3rd: Two of Ginsburg / Rensch / Adamson
4th: Harper

1st: Barcellina / Altounian / Aldama
2nd / 3rd: Two of Ginsburg / Rensch / Adamson
4th: Martinez


Strength / Flexibility: The Scorpions seem to have taken on a similar path as the Destiny – giving themselves a large number of possibilities on the top three boards, but will largely rely on a single person for most of the Board Four responsibilities (not in entirety like Dallas but still very often). Although they do have a good degree of flexibility on the top boards that may in some sense be something of an illusion as physical location may be more of a determination of what lineup they happen to use in a particular week instead of what they feel to be the optimal choice (as Arizona will sometimes play from Phoenix and sometimes Tucson). Hopefully this does not impact them to the point where they end up having to use clearly suboptimal lineups, but it seems almost certain to hamper their choices to some degree. Score: 6.

Underrated Players: Unfortunately, it's hard to give the Scorpions much credit here, as other than Rensch and Haerper who have made some marginal ground in comparison to their league ratings, their players generally seem to be at fairly stable ratings. Score: 4.

Dedication: In one sense, I think Arizona may be one of the top teams in this regard as they've clearly shown their tremendous dedication both in getting a team to begin with and how enthusiastic they've been in other regards (most notably blogging). I can only assume these qualities will translate to appropriate preparation and team unity. While I still have concerns about how physical location may affect their ability to prepare as a team, I still give them high marks here. Score: 8.

Other Factors: Arizona may have both expansion team blues as well as player rust to contend with as it seems several of their players, most notably Barcellina, have not been especially active on the tournament scene recently. Once again, I think Arizona seems to be dedicated enough that they will be determined not to let either of those issues hinder them, but determination is not always enough. Score: 7.


Total Score: 25
Projected Record: 4.5 – 5.5



6th Place: Chicago Blaze


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Mitkov
2nd / 3rd: Two of Van de Mortel / Felecan / Tate / Pasalic / Young
4th: Meerovich / Strunk

(can't use Van de Mortel + Felecan here)

1st: Van de Mortel / Felecan
2nd: Tate
3rd: Pasalic
4th: Young


Strength / Flexibility: Chicago is very strong in this regard, having available rosters very similar to others with a GM, two IMs, and an improving youngster on Board Four. They also though have access to a very unusual roster, namely the four IM roster I alluded to at the beginning of this article (perhaps not four IMs in actuality, but given Pasalic is an IM-elect, close enough for my purposes). I have no idea how much they intend to use that roster, but having access to it definitely seems like it could pay dividends. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: The Blaze, like most teams, have youthful players anchoring on the bottom board. However, unlikely many other teams, it's tough to reasonably ascribe their anchors, who while likely improving, as really being "underrated" when the team is using very recent ratings as their league ratings. More promising may be both Tate and Young, both who have had ratings far higher than their league ratings at many stages of their career. Whether their recent drop represents a decline, inconsistency, or a bad run is really anyone's guess, but if Chicago can gain an edge in this phase, it likely would be through them. Score: 4.

Dedication: Unfortunately, Chicago's pre-season took a disturbing turn when their top two players ended up leaving the team. While that might simply have been a personal issue of the players, it can't help but raise serious concerns about just how dedicated the rest of their roster might really be to the team and just the general excitement and unity the team has if something like that can happen right before the season. While their fans and promoters seem more excited about the league than perhaps any other team, if the players are not so as well, that doesn't seem to equate to success. It's also hard to know how Tate will fit into the roster given his distance, but that can naturally cause further preparation and unity issues. Score: 5.

Other Factors: When I saw Chicago's original roster, I really felt that they might well be reasonable candidates to hold the top spot in the West. While, as mentioned, recent events have definitely troubled me as to what the future really holds for them, that nevertheless seems to be something which is really in their own hands. They still definitely have very strong lineups and players and to me the first few matches will be very telling as to whether the recent unrest will end up being a mere nuisance or a catastrophe. Score: 7.


Total Score: 24
Projected Record: 4 – 6



7th Place: Tennessee Tempo


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Ehlvest
2nd: Burnett
3rd: Andrews / Bereolos
4th: Bick / Wheeler / McCarthy / Larson


Strength / Flexibility: For the first time the Tempo have four players on their roster that together would not be a legal lineup. Obviously, this indicates what a great stride they have taken to heal their general strength issue which has been a monkey on their back for both seasons. While that's obviously a great first step, it's still tough to give them very good marks when it comes to flexibility as they still need both Ehlvest and Burnett in every roster to really match other teams in the league rating-wise. It's also really anyone's guess how much Ehlvest might actually play, given he only played four matches in 2006 when competing for Philadelphia. That, along with the fact that there is a much greater distance involved for him to compete this year, makes it seem unlikely to me that he will play in the majority of their matches. I personally hope I'm wrong, but objectively I really can't give Tennessee a high mark in this category until I know for sure. Score: 4.

Underrated Players: As a team of mostly grizzled veterans, this is another place where Tennessee has never had many assets in. While that certainly changes with the addition of the high rated Ehlvest, especially if he can perform at the level he did in 2006, I'm not sure they have any bright spots here other than him. Score: 4.

Dedication: The Tempo have always been one of the most dedicated teams in the league, and now that they have moved to the point where they can be clear playoff contenders, I would anticipate that such motivation would only grow. While it's unlikely their top player will be a part of that preparation, I still give Tennessee high marks here. Score: 8.

Other Factors: To me there have really been two major issues which have held the Tempo back from being a far better team in their first two seasons. The first obviously lies in their inherent rating disadvantage which hopefully they have solved for a good portion of their matches this season. However, the second issue has been a constant knack for blundering late in their matches when they often appeared to be on the verge of winning or drawing. If the Tempo can solve that issue as well, they might well be completely unrecognizable in 2008. Score: 6.


Total Score: 22
Projected Record: 3 – 7



Stay tuned for Part 3 to see who I think will emerge victorious at the end!

2008 Season Predictions Part 1 -- Eastern Division

With the fourth season of the USCL sneaking up on us, it's time once again for you readers to be subjected to another strong dosage of my incoherent babble. Traditionally, this whole process begins with me making preseason predictions and since that has worked so well in the past (or has it?), there seems to be little reason not to follow that same trend this year. As has been the case the last few seasons, it seems very clear that this coming season should be the best one yet given the huge increase of top players competing along with the two additional teams. Last year we were treated to new displays like a double GM vs. double GM match, and I would only guess that such things will be amplified further this season along with several new things like perhaps one team using a lineup of four IMs (read further to see what I mean!). To try to decipher what teams have the small advantages this year to help them overcome the general parity of the league and rise to the top, I will again use the same general system I used last year (East and West predictions from 2007) to try to rank them. However, as more and more seasons of the league are completed, certain trends become apparent which naturally forces me to somewhat reexamine the exact way I evaluate the teams, and here is how I will do it in 2008.


Strength / Flexibility: Last year I had each of these aspects as an individual category, but I feel it's appropriate to combine them this year. In terms of strength, since all teams are capable of submitting rosters near the rating cap, to me this has always been more a question of being able to be able to do that while also being able to "stack" a particular board. This sort of goes hand in hand with flexibility as the ability to do that naturally hinges on having many possible lineups which are near the rating cap. The larger issue of general flexibility to me lies in being able to use a near maximal lineup even in the absence of any one of your players since as the league grows stronger and stronger, invariably more of the strongest players will have to be away for other chess obligations. On the other hand, history somewhat suggests that that advantage may become somewhat unimportant in the later portions of the season as the majority of the more successful teams seem to settle into one or two specific lineups in the later matches, probably based mostly on what has carried them to their success in the early part of the season. This might perhaps render such lineup flexibility to be somewhat irrelevant at those later stages, but as the league players become more and more familiar with one another as more matches are played, another issue in being flexible may well lie in being able in an appropriate situation to switch between players of similar strength when you feel one is a better matchup against the player you expect the opposing team to use in the same spot.

Underrated Players: This may well be the most important factor. Simply put, due to the rating parity of the league, having players who for whatever reason are clearly stronger than their "league rating" is an obvious advantage. The three most natural ways this occurs is with players above 2590 who count only as 2590 when determining lineup legality, female players who count as forty points lower, and most importantly young players who have the greatest ability to capitalize on this edge with their current strength often being a hundred or even more points higher than their league rating.

Dedication: Again, teams who put extra preparation to their matches are naturally likely to have a distinct advantage. I know some would likely be skeptical of how important this might be, but I feel the near Game of the Year Winner, Martinez vs Zilberstein, from last year's Wildcard Round clearly demonstrates how much home preparation can really pay off. In addition, I think team unity is another aspect of this general concept which is also quite important. Once again, I know some would disagree with that since even though the USCL is at heart a team event, when it comes time to play the matches, the players play individually at that point. But once again, based on history, teams which display such unity just generally have seemed to perform better. I'm not sure if that's merely psychological or the more natural assumption that teams with more unity are far more likely to prepare together, but it's clear to me that it's a factor to be considered.

Other Factors: Now that the league has at least a semi-reasonable amount of history to look back on, many teams and individual players have definitely developed some unique advantages. These of course vary greatly amongst the teams (as will be noted when I discus them), but certainly in a league which is so uniform any small edge can be a huge boost. One general factor I included in this last season was "schedule strength", something that seems quite debatable as to its importance as with all teams now being able to have lineups of near optimal rating, in most senses no team's schedule should be much easier than another's. So while I might mention that factor on occasion, I will never view it as more than a very slight advantage.


So once again, I will assign each team a score from one to ten in the four above categories and use that to rank the teams in each division and project their record. Remember also that when I list a team's strongest lineups, that will only be players from their main roster as since alternates cannot play in the post-season, their role is pretty limited overall.



Eastern Division:



1st Place: Boston Blitz


Strongest Lineups:

1st / 2nd: Two of Christiansen / Perelshteyn / Sammour-Hasbun
3rd: Esserman
4th: Krasik

1st: Christiansen / Perelshteyn / Sammour-Hasbun
2nd / 3rd: Two of Vigorito / Shmelov / Riordan / Esserman
4th: Krasik

1st: Christiansen / Perelshteyn / Sammour-Hasbun
2nd: Shmelov
3rd: Riordan
4th: Esserman


Strength / Flexibility: Boston, as always, comes bearing a very strong lineup, very stacked at the top. While they might not have quite the sheer power they had last season with the two vastly underrated players Shmelov and Williams, they still have plenty of strong lineups with many possibilities up top. They only really lack real flexibility in the bottom spot, as Krasik by necessity will almost certainly be forced to hold down that spot in the vast majority of their matches. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: One might think that after this category was likely Boston's biggest trump in 2007 that they really don't have much to boast about here in 2008, but that really doesn't seem true to me. Of course, both of their GMs counting as 2590 is a natural benefit and after sporting a 2833 performance rating in 2008, it would be difficult to not ascribe Sammour-Hasbun as an asset in this regard. Esserman's recent results and current rating also clearly place him as such an asset and if Krasik can perform at the level he did in 2006, he can definitely be one as well. Score: 7.

Dedication: This has likely been the major thing that has allowed the Blitz to capture the East in the past two years as they are definitely one of the teams that puts a good amount of preparation into their matches, and when it comes to team unity, it's hard to think of a team which can best them in that regard as evidenced by their numerous videos and interviews from last season. Score: 9.

Other Factors: After two close but not quite finishes in the past two seasons, I doubt any team will be hungrier for the USCL title this year than Boston. As I've stated before, with Boston doing a bit better each season than the last would be a very good trend for them to follow once again if they wish to realize their dreams this year as that can have only one outcome if they do so. However, the big thing in their favor is very simply the fact that they've won the East Regular Season title in both of the last two years, and in a league as tough as balanced as this, that clearly shows they are doing something right so I see little reason not to follow that trend further. Score: 8.


Total: 32
Projected Record: 6.5 – 3.5



2nd Place: Queens Pioneers


Strongest Lineups:

1st / 2nd / 3rd: Three of Stripunsky / Vovsha / Schneider / Lenderman
4th: Ostrovskiy

1st: Vovsha
2nd: Schneider
3rd: Lenderman
4th: Katz

1st / 2nd: Two of Stripunsky / Vovsha / Schneider / Lenderman
3rd: Zhao
4th: Thaler / Katz


Strength / Flexibility: Queens again has a very powerful roster with many possibilities on basically every board. One weakness they seemed to have in 2007 was Stripunsky and Vovsha being forced to play nearly every match on the top two boards, which clearly is something they have solved for this season. Strangely, the place Queens might be a tad lacking is in the Board Three spot – basically being forced to either stack that board or be out-rated on it (I say strange since last year Queens had three players in the 2300 – 2400 range on their initial roster; players who essentially tend to be ideal for Board Three in most teams' makeup). Score: 7.

Underrated Players: Queens is definitely one of the most armed teams in this regard with Stripunsky well over 2600 and Vovsha based on last year's performance and recent showing at the New England Masters almost certainly such an asset also. Most importantly though, Queens has a nice array of young talent: recent IM norm scorer Zhao, current master Thaler, and National Elementary Champion Ostovskiy, all now well above their league ratings. This to me is where Queens might really have a notch up on several other teams. Score: 9.

Dedication: Again as a team which probably functions a reasonable amount as the lower boards being students to the higher boards, they will always have an intrinsic edge both in preparation purposes and team unity. Score: 8.

Other Factors: Queens narrowly missed out on a playoff birth in their first season and with a year's experience, I have a feeling this may be a break out year for them. Although Stripunsky had a sub-par 2007 season, if he can return to the realm that he scored in 2005, Queens will be a super strong team. In general though, after being a fairly one dimensional team in terms of lineups in 2007, they seem to really have expanded greatly on that which bodes well for them. Score: 7.


Total: 31
Projected Record: 6 – 4



3rd Place: New York Knights


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Shabalov
2nd: Krush / Braylovsky
3rd: Bonin
4th: Herman / Zenyuk

(can't use Krush + Herman here)

1st / 2nd: Two of Fedorowicz / Charbonneau / Krush
3rd: Braylovsky / Bonin
4th: Herman / Zenyuk

(can't use Fedorowicz + Charbonneau + Braylovsky + Herman)


Strength / Flexibility: With the league's first triple GM roster, New York obviously has no shortage of strength. Having such an array along with Krush and sometimes Braylovsky to handle the top two boards, they definitely have a good amount of flexibility in stacking the top couple of boards also. They really don't seem to be lacking sufficient possibilities for handling the bottom two boards either; there only real issue to me is with several of their players likely to be away for several events (Miami Open and Mind Games Olympiad in China). Nevertheless, given the large number of choices their roster really seems to afford them, I think New York is probably the strongest team in the league in this regard. Score: 9.

Underrated Players: While New York may not have the 100+ point underrated players that other teams boast, they certainly have some real assets in this category with Shabalov a frequent super 2700 player along with both Herman and Zenyuk whose league results and current ratings definitely establish them as beyond their league ratings. Those factors, along with having two females who will likely be very active roster members definitely give the Knights a nice boost here. Score: 8.

Dedication: Given the fairly large changes to the Knights roster, it's clear that the manager (Krush) has taken strides to sew up any problems she might have perceived last year. It's rather difficult to know if this largely new team will be able to display the appropriate unity to rise to the top, but with Shabalov residing in a different state, and Charbonneau hard at work for on many days, it's hard to imagine that they will be able to match many of the other teams when it comes to preparation. Score: 7.

Other Factors: I have a feeling most will be surprised by predicting the Knights to not finish in one of the top two spots, especially with the league's first triple GM roster. However, like their arch-rivals, the Boston Blitz, I really feel history should not be an overlooked factor as the Knights have greatly struggled in the first half of their season in both of the last two years. While some might consider it ridiculous to consider that pertinent when this year's roster is so different from last year's, I've been proven wrong too many times by ignoring the league's, albeit short, historical evidence. Score: 5.


Total: 29
Projected Record: 5.5 – 4.5



4th Place: Philadelphia Inventors


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Kudrin
2nd: Smith
3rd: Bartell
4th: Bady

1st: Kudrin
2nd: Smith / Bartell
3rd / 4th: Two of J Shahade / Yeager / Costigan / Wilson

(can't use Smith + Yeager + Costigan here)


Strength / Flexibility: As shown last season, Philadelphia's typical roster with Kudrin manning the top board is quite strong, and given it really didn't change this season, there's no reason why it won't be this season. Plus with the addition of Bartell to give them a little more flexibility on second board along with a different way to stack the roster, they definitely have a good improvement in that regard. While they still suffer with being forced into a suboptimal roster should Kudrin need to miss a match, it's hard to see them really lacking in any other regard here. Score: 7.

Underrated Players: Philadelphia basically has the same trumps here as last season with Yeager now well above his league rating and Costigan and Wilson both continuing to perform above their league ratings. Score: 6.

Dedication: The Inventors still have the handicap of having a GM not in the near vicinity, but things do look up for them this season with Bartell, a friend of Smith's, joining and with J Shahade returning after a long layoff trying to prepare for China, I have a feeling she'll be quite dedicated also. Score: 7.

Other Factors: The Inventors have always had the advantage that my almost universally picking them to finish in last has undoubtedly served as great motivation. Now that they don't have that edge this season, it's very possible that they will just collapse completely without it and finish in last. On a more serious note though, one disadvantage I really felt the Inventors had last season was their being rather one dimensional in nature – all of their lineups basically being of a very similar shape which seems to be something they have definitely expanded on with the addition of Bartell. The Inventors mostly have tended to rely on the extensive experience of their veteran players, but recently have taken strides to utilize some of the other key advantages like have a better variety of lineups and also using the rating advantages both a female and a youth can provide. Now that they have moved into the current times in those regards, they may now really have what it takes to compete for the League Championship. Score: 8.


Total: 28
Projected Record: 5 – 5



5th Place: New Jersey Knockouts


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Benjamin
2nd: Gulko
3rd: Ju / Molner / Shen
4th: Lian

1st: Benjamin / Gulko
2nd: Ippolito
3rd: Friedman
4th: Lian

1st: Benjamin / Gulko
2nd: Ippolito / Friedman
3rd: Ju / Molner
4th: Shen

1st: Ippolito
2nd: Friedman
3rd: Ju
4th: Molner


Strength / Flexibility: Having added Gulko to their campaign, the Knockouts definitely have a wider variety of top lineups to wield, something I felt they were a bit lacking in 2007. As noted above, New Jersey seems to have four different lineup styles, all of which are quite powerful and should give them a good amount of flexibility. While they can't use the lineup with a GM on the top board and Ju on the bottom; something which served them quite well last season, the additional new possibilities likely more then make up for that. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: This might be one category where the Knockouts aren't quite up to par with most other teams in the league. While they do have two 2600+ GMs and a good amount of youth, it seems for the league ratings their youth really aren't far off from their current ratings. Score: 4.

Dedication: Benjamin by most indications, in addition to being their top board, seems to also have taken on a semi-role of preparing the team. Given that he's also something of a pseudo-mentor to both Ju and Shen due to the recent US Chess School, I would only expect that to be amplified this season. The Knockout players in general seem quite dedicated to the team in general given the large number of annotated games by the players themselves from their last year's matches and so New Jersey seems quite strong here on the whole. Score: 7.

Other Factors: With Benjamin's wife expecting a baby soon, it's really unclear if he might suddenly become unavailable for some portion of the season. While in one sense, the Knockouts definitely have a few very good lineups they could still use in that circumstance, given his position as the general team leader, it seems quite likely that his being unavailable would adversely affect the team beyond him simply being unable to play. Score: 7.


Total: 26
Projected Record: 4.5 – 5.5




6th Place: Baltimore Kingfishers


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Erenburg
2nd: Blehm
3rd: R Kaufman / Zimmer / Kahn
4th: Defibaugh

1st: Erenburg / Blehm
2nd: Enkhbat
3rd: L Kaufman
4th: Defibaugh

1st: Erenburg / Blehm
2nd: Enkhbat / L Kaufman
3rd / 4th: Two of R Kaufman / Zimmer / Kahn


Strength / Flexibility: The Kingfishers are a squad who I've often criticized for not having any youth on their team, but they have changed that this season with two young players Defibaugh and Low (one as an alternate) who will allow them to use their probable most favored lineup of GM + Enkbhat + L Kaufman (incidentally the lineup that essentially was used in their 2005 League Championship). In addition, they are also one of the few teams who can use a current 2300+ on their Board Four with them having several lineups with Zimmer manning the bottom board. I definitely think Baltimore has a great deal of flexibility more than last season. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: Baltimore has mostly been lacking in this regard the past couple of seasons, but this year they definitely have two big assets with R Kaufman recently achieving his third IM norm and Defibaugh now well above his league rating. Score: 6.

Dedication: This was definitely a place where I felt the Kingfishers likely weren't quite up to par in 2007 with R Kaufman not being on the main roster, and just in general having several team members who only played one or two matches all season, naturally suggested that they didn't have a great deal of team unity. This year's roster definitely seems more conducive to them being better in that regard this season but how good remains to be seen. Score: 7.

Other Factors: Once again I feel I must dock a bit from Baltimore here based on recent history, having finished last in the East each of the past two years (on the other hand, the reward for this is mathematically the easiest schedule of inter-league opponents). It might seem ridiculous to deduct based on this given that a loss in the last week each year has been the difference between a playoff spot and finishing last, but I still feel having that winner's mentality from the start is never a bad thing (which is why I continue to rely on past performances when making judgments for the teams in general). Score: 5.


Total: 26
Projected Record: 4.5 – 5.5



7th Place: Carolina Cobras


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Milman
2nd: Schroer
3rd: Zaikov / Simpson / Jones
4th: Dana / Bapat

1st: Milman / Schroer
2nd: Zaikov
3rd: Simpson
4th: Jones


Strength / Flexibility: In terms of strength, Carolina on paper is certainly a fine team, but realistically when looking strictly at their players, the fact that they are unable to use the lineup they used nearly all of last season really sticks out. Given they failed to qualify for the post-season when mostly using that roster, in the sense that that lineup is no longer legal, their roster seems to have somewhat decreased in power. Given that most of the other teams have seemingly increased their strength, the Cobras seem likely to be fighting an uphill battle this season. Score: 6.

Underrated Players: Unfortunately, I see the Cobras extremely lacking here as their two main trumps in the past in this regard, Zaikov and Jones now have increased to the point where their league ratings are probably fairly close to their actual strength (as mentioned, their ratings have increased enough that their traditional lineup from last season doesn't work anymore). Score: 3.

Dedication: Carolina's main roster seems to be quite disparate in profession with Milman and Zaikov both students while Schroer and Jones the opposite (ok, of chess, but you get the idea). That does seem to naturally make it difficult to mesh well for team preparation in general. Carolina does on the other hand have a very similar roster to last season, and hopefully that can give them some edge in the unity department. Score: 7.

Other Factors: I'm sure Milman was not the most pleased individual to hear of the Cobras return to the East given him personally performing much better against the West. On the other hand, both Zaikov and Jones performed very well in the East in 2006. Granted both of them will likely have to play different roles this season compared to then, but if the Cobras want to find something to build on, perhaps it can start with the two of them. Score: 7.


Total: 23
Projected Record: 3.5 – 6.5



Stay tuned for Parts 2 and 3, where I will try to break down the West and then the Playoffs!