Power Rankings -- Week 2

These are my power rankings for Week 2. Beginning this week (and in future weeks), I will also include what I believe to be each team’s probability of winning their division and of making the playoffs (which will be a rough estimate based on their current record, future opponents, and how tough their division is overall).

1^st: Boston Blitz (2 – 0) (+1 from last week). Another impressive win by the Blitz against a tough Queens team, and they seem to be the only choice for the top spot. While they do have some more tough opponents coming up, they’ve no doubt shown an ability to weather any opponent, and in my eyes are the definite favorites to win the East. (Win Division: 34%, Make Playoffs: 80%)

2^nd: San Francisco Mechanics (1.5 – 0.5) (-1). The Mechanics nearly had their long unbeaten streak come to an end this past week, and it seems likely they may be put in that situation again this week facing a somewhat desperate New York team which absolutely cannot afford another loss. I still feel the Mechanics are the best team in the West for sure, but it seems clear they are not invincible either. (36%, 85%)

3^rd: Dallas Destiny (1.5 – 0.5) (+0). Dallas continues to demonstrate why I believe them to be a very strong team in nearly knocking off the “unbeatable” San Francisco team, and it should be clear at this point that their best lineups are capable of beating any team in the league. Should they continue to submit rosters with Stopa on board three, it seems they will be a very tough team to hold back. (28%, 73%)

4^th: Philadelphia Inventors (2 – 0) (+3). The Inventors have certainly managed to prove me as likely being wrong on two counts, both on them finishing last in their division in my preseason predictions and them not having beaten a strong team in my first week’s power rankings. While it’s clear that I underestimated them to some degree, before I move them to the very top echelons of these rankings, I’ll want them to overcome at least one or two more challenges, and this week’s showdown with Boston could be one of them. (26%, 65%)

5^th: Baltimore Kingfishers (1 – 1) (-1). The Kingfishers unfortunately couldn’t manage to pull off another upset in their second week, but despite that, I really do like their overall chances this season as especially with Enkbhat playing as well as he has the first two weeks. Once they get their GMs into the mix, their strong lineups with him on board two seem very dangerous. (15%, 53%)

6^th: Seattle Sluggers (1 – 1) (+3). When I questioned how two of the preseason favorites, Seattle and New York would respond to the early setback they each suffered in the first week, the Sluggers definitely responded in a positive way with their resounding victory. Seattle’s season definitely seems to be looking very up after this win along with the fact that two of their next three opponents, Tennessee and Carolina, they completely dominated last season. However, Seattle hasn’t fared all that well against the other top teams based on their results against San Francisco and New York last season as well as their loss to Boston this season so it remains to see if they can solve that problem. (23%, 64%)

7^th: Queens Pioneers (0.5 – 1.5) (-1). Though Queens suffered a tough defeat to Boston perhaps in some part to an unfortunate mouse slip, it’s clear they’ve faced two very tough opponents and so far luck has not been on their side. Add to that the fact that their two big guns have had Black both weeks against two of the most formidable players in the league, I still see Queens as being a strong contender overall in all regards. (12%, 41%)

8^th: New Jersey Knockouts (1 – 1) (+0). The Knockouts have definitely showed themselves to be a team of miracle draws, having managed narrow escapes into drawing both of their matches. However, having held a significant rating edge in both matches, they definitely cannot look at those matches as overall positive results, and if they don’t step up their play, I don’t seem them being in the playoffs. (8%, 34%)

9^th: Carolina Cobras (1 – 1) (+2). Carolina did have an impressive victory this week against a somewhat weakened Baltimore lineup, and so far have not really showed the holes at the top that were so costly to them last season. It still remains to be seen though if the lineup they used this week can score consistently against the best teams using their best lineups. (8%, 41%)

10^th: New York Knights (0 – 2) (-5). If ever I had to eat crow over a preseason pick, this might be it as without a drastic turn around right away, this is one team which isn’t going to win their division or even make the playoffs. If Mr. Anonymous from last week wants to blast me again for dropping them down this far, well go right ahead as it seems I’m far from alone in this current belief. If any team has the tools to make this miraculous turn around a reality, I do think feel it is New York, but the scheduling gods aren’t doing them any favors either as they are facing San Francisco and Boston in the next two weeks. (5%, 27%)

11^th: Miami Sharks (0 – 2) (-1). Another internal problem unfortunately forced the Sharks into yet another match where they were fairly out gunned on paper. Though it may be that this instance didn’t affect the overall result (given the lopsided result which did happen), and was certainly well beyond their control if they cannot begin to submit their best lineups and play their best matches, I don’t see them turning their season around. (4%, 32%)

12^th: Tennessee Tempo (0.5 – 1.5) (+0). As I mentioned last week, I don’t feel I can move Tennessee out of the bottom spot until they show me an ability to stop shooting themselves in the foot near the end of their matches, and they really didn’t manage to satisfy that condition this week. So even though it happened to be in a drawing effort this time, I feel they must keep this position. Overall, given the rating disadvantage they are likely to have in nearly all of their matches, adding a constant inability to convert winning positions isn’t going to do them any favors or put them in the playoffs. (1%, 5%)

Week 2 Game of the Week

This year for game of the week we have three judges, all ranking their top five games. The games are then given anywhere from one to five points, based on these rankings, and whichever game receives the most points wins the award. Also note that this year the winner each week will receive a $100 bonus prize. Our three judges are: IM Greg Shahade, NM Arun Sharma, and Jonathan Hilton. Click here for more details.

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1st Place: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0


Jonathan Hilton: Vinay pulls through for his team in a must-win situation. He showed excellent opening preparation, but Bartholomew, an expert in the Scandinavian, managed to neutralize most of his initiative. Vinay was left pushing for a win in a rook and bishops-of-opposite-color endgame, and with the help of some neat tactics and his own persistent pursuit of the point he managed to garner the point after eighty-two grueling moves. (1st Place: 5 points)


Greg Shahade: I wasn't jumping out of my seat to give this game the game of the week prize, but after comparing it to the competition I felt compelled to give it the nod. Some people are not so excited by endgames that take 40-50 moves to win. However Vinay did display tenacious technique, never letting John forget his blunder that he made with 32...Re8, allowing 33. Rxh5. Adding to this game's standing was the fact that the fate of the match hung in the balance. If Vinay couldn't win, the Dallas Destiny would move to 2-0 and clear first place in the West. Now the two teams remain tied. Dallas is showing that they are ready to challenge San Francisco for supremecy in the West, but we will have to wait till the very last week of the season for a rematch between these two. The way things are going, this final match could determine the division title. (1st Place: 5 points)


Arun Sharma: Although the middle-game in this encounter might not have been especially exciting, I felt the ending was interesting and dramatic enough to warrant this game being Game of the Week. Unfortunately, like many of the other games this week it was somewhat marred by the fact that one of the players spent the most interesting moments being in severe time pressure (in this case Bhat). Overall though, I felt he conducted the endgame very well considering the circumstances, and I also felt that Bartholomew defended the endgame much better than the spectators seemed to be giving him credit for. Add to this the fact that the result of this game was going to determine if the Mechanics’ unbeaten streak since the beginning of the 2006 season would stay intact and also would declare who’d have the early division lead in the West, made this the best game of the night to me. (1st Place: 5 points)




Bhat vs Bartholomew after 33. Kb2

Bartholomew now blundered with 33... Re8? as the attack on the bishop was a phantom attack after 34. Rxh5! now if 34....Rxe6 35. Rh8 forces black to give up his bishop and leads to an easily winning rook and pawn ending for white after 35....Bd8 36 Rxd8 Kc7 37. Rf8. Even after this error Bhat needed 45 more moves to win against extremely stubborn defense by Bartholomew.


Total Score of Bhat vs Bartholomew: 15 points

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2nd Place: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Ildar Ibragimov (QNS) 1-0


Greg Shahade: This was a pretty nice game by Christiansen, however it was hard to give it a first place vote when the game ended almost immediately due to a blunder by Ibragimov (37...b4 lost immediately). Christiansen did seem to have a powerful edge a bit earlier, but somehow lost the thread. Bartholomew also lost due to a blunder, however it took Bhat almost 50 moves to exploit it, which is one reason that I ranked that game higher. In all this was an entertaining game, and the most watched game of the evening on ICC. (2nd Place: 4 points)


Arun Sharma: Though like the above game, this one probably had the clock situation somewhat determining the outcome, I still felt this was overall a very nice performance by the legendary attacker Christiansen. The abrupt end to the game was also somewhat surprising as the game seemed basically equal a couple of moves earlier. Granted, as Christiansen himself pointed out, Ibragimov missed a few chances to draw the game late (though I haven’t analyzed this with a computer, my cursory glance seems to suggest that Black is still very much in the game with 37… Qd6 instead of 37… b4), but overall it was still a very nicely played game by Christiansen and a huge help to the Blitz in winning the match. (2nd Place: 4 points)


Jonathan Hilton: Christiansen eschews quiet play in search of a tactical win. His magical ability to turn the game into a tactical slugfest paid off heavily and quickly, as Ibragimov made a few inaccuracies, eventually going down the exchange. The move of the game was 25. f5!?, a wild pawn sacrifice that turned out excellently for Christiansen after 25...exf5?, but might have met tough resistance with 25....f6! 26. Ne3 Nxf5. (3rd Place: 3 points)


Total Score of Christiansen vs Ibragimov: 11 points

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3rd Place: FM Teddy Coleman (QNS) vs Ilya Krasik (BOS) 1-0


Arun Sharma: Although this game might not have ended up having any effect on the overall match result, I think it may well have been the most exciting game of the night. There were so many interesting tactical moments in the game and while the position was really heating up the overall match was still very much in doubt. I might have ranked this game even higher if not for the fact that it didn’t end up playing a role in the overall result and also that Black's time pressure almost certainly caused him to make mistakes near the end and lose the game. (3rd Place: 3 points)


Greg Shahade: It's a real shame that Krasik didn't either win or draw this, because if he did I'm pretty sure it would have gotten my vote for game of the week. You have to admire a chessplayer who plays the move 38...Kh5 while in serious time trouble and who also eschews the oppurtunity to play 38...Kg7 likely leading to a repetition. Well okay, if you are one of his teammates in a tight match you might not admire him, but if you are sitting at home watching online, you do. In all I felt that Krasik outplayed Coleman from a difficult position, but that Coleman was the better practical player and this led to him scoring the victory. Also Krasik missed the powerful blow 31...d3! (4th Place: 2 points)


Jonathan Hilton: One of the evening's most eventful games! Both sides missed some tactical shots throughout the course of the game, yet it was not until Black marched his king all the way up to h5 in a position with great material imbalance did it seem Krasik lost the threat of the position! This game was a real slugfest and the overall quality of the game was quite high, especially considering the relatively fast time control! (4th Place: 2 points)


Total Score of Coleman vs Krasik: 7 points


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Other Considered Games (judges' scores in parenthesis)


6 points (Jon 4, Greg 2): IM Mikhail Zlotnikov (NJ) vs FM Todd Andrews (TN) 1-0

4 points (Greg 3, Arun 1): NM Elvin Wilson (PHI) vs Matthew Herman (NY) 1-0

2 points (Arun 2): GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) vs GM Sergey Kudrin (PHI) 1/2-1/2

1 point (Jon 1): FM Oleg Zaikov (CAR) vs WGM Katerina Rohonyan (BAL) 1-0

Week 2 Predictions

Here is what I think Week 2 will entail:


Boston over Queens 2.5 – 1.5

Carolina ties Baltimore 2 – 2

New York over Philadelphia 2.5 – 1.5

New Jersey over Tennessee 3 – 1

Dallas ties San Francisco 2 – 2

Miami ties Seattle 2 – 2

Prediction Results -- Week 1

So once again this season we shall have a prediction contest to see who can best predict the match winners and scores ahead of time. This year the contest will be amongst myself (picks posted here), Ron Young, and Josh Gutman. For each correct result picked you receive 2 points. You also receive the following bonuses for picking the exact final score as follows:

Each exact score of 2.5 – 1.5 receives 1 bonus point.
Each exact score of 2 – 2 or 3 – 1 receives 2 bonus points.
Each exact score of 3.5 – 0.5 or 4 – 0 receives 3 bonus points.



With that being said, for the first week here is how we all fared (AS = Arun Sharma, RY = Ron Young, JG = Josh Gutman from here on out).

Total after Week 1:


Arun Sharma: 12 points
Josh Gutman: 9 points
Ron Young: 8 points

Read below to see how these scores were tabulated.

NJ ties QNS 2 – 2

AS: Correct +4
RY: NJ 2.5 – 1.5 +0
JG: NJ 3 – 1 +0

BAL over NY 3 – 1

RY: NY 2.5 – 1.5 +0
JG/AS: NY 3 – 1 +0


PHI over MIA 2.5 – 1.5

JG: Correct +3
AS/RY: Tie +0


DAL over TN 3 – 1

JG/AS/RY: Correct +4


SF over CAR 3 – 1

AS/RY: Correct +4
JG: SF 3.5 – 0.5 +2


BOS over SEA 2.5 – 1.5

JG/AS: Tie +0
RY: SEA 2.5 – 1.5 +0

Power Rankings -- Week 1

This year I shall be doing "Power Rankings" for all the teams each week to see how strong I feel each team is week in and week out. The primary criteria for this will of course be a team's record, and the other criteria will be a team's upcoming chances in potential matches, any internal problems they might be having, and several small intangibles of the type that I talked about in my preseason article.

Here is how I think things stand after the first week.

1^st: San Francisco Mechanics (1 – 0). Who else? The defending champions won in fairly convincing style against Carolina, and with the team I felt would give them the biggest challenge for the best regular season record, New York, suffering an alarming setback in Week 1, they seem to be the clear front runners now. Their only minor worry may be that the other two Game of the Week judges seem to be conspiring against them, managing to award their only loss in Week 1 as Game of the Week.

2^nd: Boston Blitz (1 – 0). Boston, despite using a lineup which probably isn’t one of their strongest (given they could have replaced Perelshteyn or Sammour-Hasbun on Board Two and still have had the lineup be legal), defeated a tough Seattle team who was likely using one of their best lineups. Like San Francisco, with their biggest potential competitor New York losing in Week 1, I now see them being front runners to take their division and even the best overall record.

3^rd: Dallas Destiny (1 – 0). I liked Dallas’s chances before the season, and recent developments have made me like them even more. Aside from their solid win, having gotten Boskovic back on the regular roster, it seems likely they can have a lineup with an IM on Board Three nearly whenever they should want it which should make them quite a force. At the same time, defeating Tennessee is one thing, and in the next two weeks they will be facing San Francisco and Queens which should prove to be quite a test for them.

4^th: Baltimore Kingfishers (1 – 0). The 2005 Champions just might be quite a bit stronger than I gave them credit for before the season. Despite using a lineup with neither of their GMs, they managed to defeat a very tough New York team that was using one of their best lineups. A huge step in the right direction, but it remains to be seen still if the Kingfishers can perform consistently like this as they were unable to do in 2006 or whether this win was simply another example of how Baltimore always owns New York. Only time shall tell.

5^th: New York Knights (0 – 1). It might be surprising that I still rate a team which lost Week 1 so highly, but it’s too soon to panic after just one match, and I still see them as being one of the best teams in the league. On the other hand, given how tough the East Division is in general, the margin of error for any team is only so large, and another setback could put a severe dent in their future chances. Of course, New York did put themselves in a similar hole last season starting 1 – 2, and still managed to reach the USCL Finals so I definitely wouldn’t be counting them out just yet.

6^th: Queens Pioneers (0.5 – 0.5). Despite being a bit out rated in their first match, Queens managed to tie (and were really the team which was in a position to win the match if either did) which hopefully is a good harbinger for the rest of their season. They do have a couple of severe tests coming up though facing Boston and then Dallas in the next two weeks.

7^th: Philadelphia Inventors (1 – 0). Though Philadelphia must be very relieved to have started off on the right foot with a victory (especially after their 0 – 4 start last season), realistically they defeated an “injury – ridden” Miami team, and are likely to be facing much stiffer opposition in the near future having New York and Boston as their next two opponents.

8^th: New Jersey Knockouts (0.5 – 0.5). New Jersey managed a narrow escape in their first match despite being the favorites in most people’s eyes, and will probably need to step it up a notch if they want to be one of the best teams in the East.

9^th: Seattle Sluggers (0 – 1). Seattle, a team which has always seemed to hold high expectations for themselves, like New York suffered a disappointing defeat in Week 1. While in most activities it’s easy to play well when winning, it will be interesting to see if they, like New York, can recover after suffering this early setback (especially considering their 4 – 0 start last season).

10^th: Miami Sharks (0 – 1). Miami, though a very strong team on paper, unfortunately suffered some severe internal problems in Week 1, which effectively wound up them not playing any of their top three players in the match (top two, now that Perea has left the team). They did put up a fairly valiant fight, but for their sake they really need such problems to be confined to the first week as the league as a whole is just too strong for any team to be able to afford to be plagued by such internal difficulties.

11^th: Carolina Cobras (0 – 1). Carolina unfortunately suffered some setbacks in Week 1 both in losing and having to use a weaker lineup then they should generally have to. One bright spot was Milman’s victory as it seemed like the top two boards would likely be Carolina’s Achilles heal this season. If he can keep performing like that, along with having Zaikov and Jones play in their more traditional spots on boards three and four, Carolina could easily become a dangerous team.

12^th: Tennessee Tempo (0 – 1). Tennessee, like many of their matches last season, seemed to have a very legitimate chance to score in their first match, but faltered at the wrong moment. If they could begin to finish matches the way they appear to start them, they could quickly become a competitive team, but until that happens they’re likely going to stay in this position.

Remainder of Week 1 Predictions

These are my predictions for opening Wednesday. I will not provide any explanation for these theories; instead will leave that in the capable hands of Ron Young and Josh Gutman saving my commentary for the feature matches on Monday Night.


New York over Baltimore 3 – 1

Philadelphia ties Miami 2 – 2

Dallas over Tennessee 3 – 1

San Francisco over Carolina 3 – 1

Boston ties Seattle 2 – 2

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