Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Game of the Year 7th Place Prediction
Once again my ineptitude has pushed me to the brink of getting fired so hopefully I can finally get something correct in this week's prediction. However, I'm really hoping more that by the time Greg finally elects to get rid of me, this contest will actually be over and then he won't have any grounds to fire me (that's my theory anyway, but I might have to speak to my union rep about it). In any case, one minor victory I did score (along with picking the number of points the game got precisely) was that changing my strategy didn't end up backfiring as the game I would have picked as most likely in my original theory to go wasn't the one chosen either (I guess being completely, totally wrong can occasionally have its advantages sometimes?). I have a nice trick prepared this week to make me twice as likely to be right, simply giving the top two games the same percentage! (if only I'd thought of this before). Here's what I would guess for next week.
27%: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0
27%: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0
15%: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0
15%: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1
8%: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0
5%: FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0
3%: GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1
Number of Points: 66
Hopefully, something in these ideas is close to correct, but if not it's been nice knowing you all!
I think you should probably get fired for that "nice trick" - you can make the percentages equal for every game all season long and thereby "win"! Seriously, that's a cheap trick you shouldn't do again...even though you're probably going to be wrong on both guesses this week.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I never thought about that, but you're absolutely right, and I might do just that in a later week! (I mean come on, a person can only take being wrong every time for so long can't he, so if I need to pull a little trick like that to up my chances how can anyone really object?). As for me getting fired, Greg certainly doesn't need any extra incentive like me using a cheap trick to fire me, he has more reasons than he can count, just doesn't have the backbone to do it.
ReplyDeleteAs for you though, saying I'm "probably going to be wrong on both this week", that seems like you're foreshadowing something which must be based upon your own rankings and that's strictly forbidden (no revealing rankings or anything about them ahead of time!). Maybe YOU need to be fired as a GOTY judge for pulling a "stunt" like that!
I'm just guessing based on your track record, but getting fired as a judge sounds good. Don't tempt me!
ReplyDelete