Game of the Year 16th Place Prediction

Well my streak came to a very abrupt halt as the game eliminated this week was obviously one of the ones I wasn't really expecting. A slight bump in the road no doubt, but hopefully that's all it is and from now on the picks will return to my expectations. Here's what I think the chances are for next week.


34%: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0


16%: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0


13%: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TN) 1-0, SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0


10%: IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0


7%: IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0


7%: Any of the Other Games (Total)


Number of Points: 37


Hopefully I'll have reverted to my winning ways when this is announced!

Game of the Year 17th Place Critique

So it seems that my predictions for the GOTY contest were actually not 100% correct (sorry to disappoint you all!). This unfortunately has a rather serious consequence for me though; prior to this week I had the luxury of mocking all the judges for their stupidity when they ranked a game far different than where it actually wound up. But now that I've demonstrated a similar ineptitude with my inaccurate placing of this week's game, my ability to laugh at the judges when they do likewise in the future might be seriously impeded. That might be the the natural assumption anyway, but the Commissioner insists that I still make fun of the judges on the off chance that some out there find it entertaining. So luckily for me, though perhaps not you, I get to keep doing it!

Why though was I so off in my placing of this game (I predicted it to finish 10th while I personally would have ranked it 11th)? A large number of reasons suggest themselves, but one big thing I might not have taken into quite enough consideration was that a major attraction of this game, aside from the piece sac, was its huge playoff implications (which naturally is always a reasonable factor in deciding GOTW). This quality is of course probably not considered nearly as important in GOTY (and rightly so I think) which could well be a reason I was so off. There could be other factors, but I doubt anyone cares so I'll just jump into examining what the judges said and thought.


Ron Young: Well I don't mind his ranking really, but any discussion of his comment would have to include some talk about the nature of his custodial abilities, and I doubt most actually want to hear that.


Jennifer Shahade: It's nice to see that Jenn has reverted back to trying to please me with her rankings (as her ranking this week nearly mirrored my own). She unfortunately may have chosen a rather bad time to do so given this game's overall ranking, but I have to appreciate the fact that she's trying to satisfy me so I won't blast her this time.


Alex Shabalov: Shabalov also seems to be at least making some effort to meet my demands, including a half nickname with his commentary. I hope he takes the next step in further weeks to make them truly complete.


Robby Adamson: I can't really verify that his comment about the opening is correct, but I think it's safe to assume that Robby knows more about openings than myself (yes, quite a feat, I know) and thus if he's right, it's hard to argue with his ranking.


Dennis Monokroussos: I personally felt the sacrifice in this game was a little more complex than his and most others' comments seem to suggest (another reason why I put this game higher than most?). Unfortunately, based on the voting system, this is definitely one scenario where majority rules, and I suppose this is an argument I can't win.


Hopefully I can get back on track with next week's elimination!

Game of the Year -- 17th Place

This is the fourth part in a weekly series of articles which will count down to revealing what game was voted as the 2007 USCL Game of the Year. For more information on exactly how this process works and the prize information, please refer to: Game of the Year Preview.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


17th Place: IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0






















IM Bonin found the crushing 18. Nxf7!!, freezing Black's position and soon forcing a decisive win of material.



Below are the comments from the judges on why they ranked the game where they did and in parentheses is the ranking given by that judge and the number of points awarded for that ranking.


FM Ron Young (9th Place, 12 points): The A43 opening, whatever its descriptive name, seems to be great for garnering Game of the Week / Year nominations. I was going to dig out a Rudolf Spielmann quote to describe Nxf7, but my copy of "the Art of Sacrifice in Chess" fell apart long ago (that’s not symbolic of anything, unfortunately, except for my skills as a book custodian).



WGM Jennifer Shahade (12th Place, 9 points): A victory for New York in this battle of former teammates. Bonin wins a clean attacking game after finding the knight sacrifice, 18. Nxf7! One thing I liked about this game is that if White had missed the opportunity to sack, his attacking chances would have been slim. Even in the final position, it's nice that White can only win with one move, 29. Be6+, although both players probably saw this a few moves before.



GM Alex Shabalov (15th Place, 6 points): Bonin vs Wizard's Apprentice. Good eye by Jay to recognize that Black will be paralyzed after his 22. Rb7. Nice ergonomic effort.



FM Robby Adamson (16th Place, 5 points): This game got consideration because of the piece sac with 18. Nxf7 that appears to work out nicely. The main drawback to this game is that Mackenzie, as usual, made up the opening and got a very bad position by playing a suspicious line as Black. If the game were judged solely on the Nxf7 sac, I would have ranked it higher, but there was nothing else special about it. The creativity of the sacrifice and the fact that it actually worked is why this got nominated for GOTW in the first place. I award this five points.



NM Dennis Monokroussos (18th Place, 3 points): A nice combination by the Bone, but the game is kind of a stump. They had barely finished the opening, Mackenzie blundered, and that was that. One tactic does not a Game of the Year make.


Total Score of Bonin vs Molner: (17th Place, 35 Points)


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Stay tuned for fifteen more such articles as the field shrinks by one game each week to see which of the following games will be the 2007 Game of the Year!


Week 2: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

Week 3: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0 Article

Week 4: GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1 Article

Week 6: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0 Article

Week 7: IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 0-1 Article

Week 8: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 1-0 Article

Week 9: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0 Article

Wildcard Round: FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0 Article

Semifinals: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1 Article

Finals: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #1: IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #2: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #3: IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs GM Gregory Serper (SEA) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #5: IM Eric Tangborn (SEA) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 0-1 Article

Wildcard #6: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs FM Marc Arnold (NY) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #7: IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0 Article


Eliminated:


17th Place (35 Points): IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0 Article

18th Place (30 Points): FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1 Article

19th Place (29 Points): IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs IM Lev Milman (CAR) 0-1 Article

20th Place (7 Points): IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Denys Shmelov (BOS) 1-0 Article

Game of the Year 18th Place Critique

So I'm now three for three. It may just be that all of you who are so desperate to know at this stage what the final order of the games will end up being can get it far ahead of time here if this continues (no guarantees though!).

Since of course this week was basically spot on in giving the game I expected along with its number of points, I don't really have anything new to add in terms of revelations for the future so I'll just jump into examining the judges' choices.


Jennifer Shahade: I guess Jenn was really determined to throw me for a loop as after I regained my faith in her last week, she shows up with this "unusual" ranking (unusual at least compared to what the other judges and I seemed to think). I can certainly appreciate her logic for ranking this game high (after all Greg and myself gave this game a similar praise when we voted it GOTW), but I just can't quite agree with it here. This of course is strictly a matter of opinion, but I am still firmly of the belief that quality should be the overriding factor by far in a contest which measures the "best" games of the whole season.


Ron Young: As always a nice side story to explain his ranking. Even if I feel he ranked this game a bit too high, I certainly will never be able to complain about his commentary being boring.


Alex Shabalov: Shabalov also seems fairly determined to mess with my mind as he too after reassuring me last week, chooses again to show up with this boring no nickname comment?? I guess I can only be so hard on him for that given that I find his ranking of this game fairly agreeable, and I suppose some might want to thank him for this omission since a reliable source informed me of the danger his life was put in when he referred to one of last week's unfortunate victims by this chosen moniker to his face. I definitely don't count myself amongst that group though and really hope for a return of them in future weeks.


Robby Adamson / Dennis Monokroussos: Hard to criticize much here given their comments and rankings were basically dead on with my line of thought on this game.


Be sure to keep in tune to see if my perfect streak can stay alive for one more week!

Game of the Year 17th Place Prediction

Well no real surprises this week (at least in my view) so hopefully I can continue to pick correctly. Here's what I think the chances are for next week (note that while I might have thought two games had about the same chance of being eliminated last week, that could well change for this week or future weeks due in large part to the most recent elimination providing new insight into how the judges chose to make their rankings).


32%: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0


16%: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0


13%: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TN) 1-0


10%: IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0, SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0


7%: IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0


6%: IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0


6%: Any of the Other Games (Total)


Number of Points: 34


We'll see if I can continue my perfect streak next week!

Game of the Year -- 18th Place

This is the third part in a weekly series of articles which will count down to revealing what game was voted as the 2007 USCL Game of the Year. For more information on exactly how this process works and the prize information, please refer to: Game of the Year Preview.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


18th Place: FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1






















IM Schroer uncorked the powerful 31... Nd3!, exploiting FM Mikhailuk's overzealous 31. h4?, after which the numerous threats were too much for White to handle.



Below are the comments from the judges on why they ranked the game where they did and in parentheses is the ranking given by that judge and the number of points awarded for that ranking.


WGM Jennifer Shahade (8th Place, 13 points): The tactic was hard to find, particularly because the position was far from clear after it. Some judges may take points off for a sacrifice if it's not 100% sound, but for me this added points because it took guts to go for it.



FM Ron Young (13th Place, 8 points): When I was playing one of the kids at a chess camp some years back, the kid said "Oh, coming in with your pieces again. That’s all you know how to do." One could make the same criticism of Schroer from this game. But even Billy (the Kid) was forced to concede "I guess you could say that it wins".



GM Alex Shabalov (16th Place, 5 points): Final attack by Black is very pretty, starting with the brilliant 31... Nd3! However, the star move 28... f3 was not enough to save the game after the experimental 11... f5 went sour.



FM Robby Adamson (19th Place, 2 points): This ranking might surprise some because the last few moves had some sexy tactics from Schroer. The reason this game was not awarded more points is because Mikhailuk outplayed Schroer for most of the game, only to falter at the end in time pressure. I must say though that Schroer did a good job of keeping the game complicated enough such that Mikhailuk had to use more time than he probably would have liked. If the game had been a little "closer", I would have ranked it higher. In any event, I gave it two points.



NM Dennis Monokroussos (19th Place, 2 points): I liked Schroer’s creative kingside attack, but both 31. h4 and 32. Qxd3 were very serious errors.


Total Score of Mikhailuk vs Schroer: (18th Place, 30 Points)


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Stay tuned for sixteen more such articles as the field shrinks by one game each week to see which of the following games will be the 2007 Game of the Year!


Week 2: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

Week 3: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0 Article

Week 4: GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1 Article

Week 6: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0 Article

Week 7: IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 0-1 Article

Week 8: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 1-0 Article

Week 9: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0 Article

Week 10: IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0 Article

Wildcard Round: FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0 Article

Semifinals: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1 Article

Championship: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #1: IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #2: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #3: IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs GM Gregory Serper (SEA) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #5: IM Eric Tangborn (SEA) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 0-1 Article

Wildcard #6: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs FM Marc Arnold (NY) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #7: IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0 Article


Eliminated:


18th Place (30 Points): FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1 Article

19th Place (29 Points): IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs IM Lev Milman (CAR) 0-1 Article

20th Place (7 Points): IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Denys Shmelov (BOS) 1-0 Article

Game of the Year 19th Place Critique

So I'm two for two. Well sort of I guess. This was the game I was expecting to see, but I never would have expected to be so far off on the number of points it would receive (predicting eleven but it receiving twenty nine). What does this mean? Well had the judges' rankings been reasonably in sync with each other, it would have been natural for the 20th place game to have gotten around five points, 19th place around ten, 18th place about fifteen, and so on. Now that the 19th game has shattered that theory completely in receiving twenty nine points, I think we can draw a few conclusions:


(1) The games in general, other than last place and perhaps the top few, will be much closer in terms of points than I expected (I predicted point jumps from thirty three to forty, from forty eight to fifty five, and from fifty eight to sixty six). It seems very unlikely based on the jump from 20th to 19th that there will be almost any further reasonably sized jumps of that sort (certainly not as many as I hinted at). This could of course be a hope for most of the people remaining in the contest since the scores being more tightly packed means it takes only a small amount of luck for any game to squeak into the Top Five.

(2) The judges definitely have very different rankings for the most part. Why? Well as mentioned, the amount of points we would have expected for this game and the next few would have been along the lines of ten, fifteen, twenty, etc. Since that's clearly not going to happen, the most logical reason is that the next few games all received a mix of high, medium, and low rankings (just as this game did) which of course implies there was some fair difference in opinion.

(3) Another (perhaps simpler) way of looking at (2) is that all of the future games will average at least six points per judge while four out of the five judges have yet to have their two or three point game (i.e. their 18th and 19th place games) eliminated. Naturally wherever those particular rankings happen to be, the corresponding games will also have to have received some much higher rankings to balance out their average. Barring something unusual where one judge ranked a game close to the top and all the others ranked it near the bottom, this likely means the judges had very different rankings for several of the games.


It also seems, up to this point, that the majority of the judges are weighing a game's quality factor as its most important trait. Again, it might be too early to make that assumption based on only two games, but given their comments on the Bonin vs Shmelov game along with three of the five judges giving the Friedel vs Milman game a reasonably high ranking (a game whose only real attraction was the fact that Milman played a very high quality game throughout), it seems to be a natural conclusion that quality was weighing heavily on the judges' minds. Only time can tell for sure, but if that's the case it seems probable that the following games might happen to do worse in this contest than most expected: Becerra vs Boskovic, Bhat vs Nakamura, Molner vs Kaufman, and Mikhailuk vs Schroer while the following games might do better than most expected: Friedel vs Serper, Tangborn vs Kuljasevic, and Smith vs Perelshteyn. Personally I would hope that assumption is actually true as I really would prefer the GOTY rankings to be centered mostly around quality and that the judges not be polluted by the Commissioner and his brilliant "Stop worrying about quality and worry more about fun sacrifices" line.


Let's take a brief look at the judges' comments on this game.


Robby Adamson: Not much to say here, just that I'm surprised he made no mention of the 39. Rxc5? blunder.


Alex Shabalov: Ahh, now this is more like it! After all, these nicknames are the real reason we keep GM Shabalov on as a judge (I mean being US Champion, pfff). I must say I don't quite understand the fascination he had with the game's final position (and I'm surprised that he, like FM Adamson, didn't make mention of 39. Rxc5? either). But then, he's the GM, and I'm not, so who am I to argue?


Dennis Monokroussos: His comments were basically dead on with my train of thought on this game. Why though if we seemed to share the same basic mindset about this game did he give it a fairly reasonable ranking while I felt it shouldn't have been in the contest to begin with? You know, I'm really not sure, but maybe his comments on future games will provide some insight as to why he felt some of those deserved to be ranked lower.


Ron Young: Well I can't say I know much about workmen, but I agree with his ranking so I won't dispute the theory.


Jennifer Shahade: Ok, I've officially regained my trust in Jenn as she, like NM Monokroussus, seemed to pretty much mirror my feelings about this game. I'm glad though that she, in addition to matching my feelings, also essentially matched where I felt this game deserved to be ranked.

I should also note that while I'm glad to have regained my faith in Jenn, I am somewhat surprised that she essentially mirrored Ron Young in his "You're all Winners" speech. While I can appreciate them wanting to give the game they award last place an easy letdown, I have a feeling most readers (including myself) would get more enjoyment out of a harsher critique of such games (even if such commentary happens to get them censored like GM Shabalov last year).


Stay tuned for another installment of this next week as we eliminate another game!

Game of the Year 18th Place Prediction

Now that the GOTY contest has taken a fairly surprising turn (i.e. the 19th place game getting a whopping 29 points), there definitely seems to be some issues to evaluate (unfortunately having predicted the games up to 16th place to finish with <= 25 points, it might be awhile before my point predictions are anywhere near reasonable so I'll need to make some new theories about them). I plan to discus most of the enlightenment behind this fact during the judges' critique. Nonetheless, given the surprise of it and since there could well be more surprises in store in the future, it seems it could be a fair challenge to predict what those might be ahead of time. Hence every week I will publish what I think the probabilities are for the most likely candidates (most likely in my view anyways) to be the next ousted game and how many points it might receive. Obviously this is sheerly a matter of opinion so feel free to disagree, but I have chosen the first two eliminated games correctly, and maybe I can continue to get lucky. Unfortunately, I feel from this point on that getting this correct will be a much harder prospect with there not being any clear candidates for the next spot(s) (of course "clear" is relative, but had I done this article last week, I would have put the Friedel vs Milman game at 80%+ to be eliminated while I won't be giving any game even 50% this week).

Though I did predict the correct game, as mentioned I was extremely off in terms of number of points I expected it to receive (I would definitely have surmised that it wouldn't get any rankings not in the bottom five and yet it got three!). This of course means the scores are much more tightly packed then I envisioned in my predictions (again I will probably delve more into what this means in my judges' critique in a couple of days) and so any small variation in the judges' decisions is much more likely to change the results (obviously something slightly different wouldn't have changed the 19th Place vs 20th Place result, but from now on it's probable that the Games' Point Totals will be differing by much smaller amounts meaning minor differences can definitely change things). Ok, once again I'm rambling into incoherent drivel so here are some probabilities for you (when multiple games are listed under the same percentage, that percentage is each game's chance individually).


25%: FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1


20%: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0


15%: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0


10%: IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0, GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TN) 1-0


5%: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0, IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0, IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0


5%: Any of the Other Games (Total)


Number of Points: 33


Be sure to keep tuned into next week's results to see if I was even close to correct!

Game of the Year -- 19th Place

This is the second part in a weekly series of articles which will count down to revealing what game was voted as the 2007 USCL Game of the Year. For more information on exactly how this process works and the prize information, please refer to: Game of the Year Preview.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


19th Place: IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs IM Lev Milman (CAR) 0-1






















Here Josh blundered with 39. Rxc5? where, as NM Monokroussos
points out, 39. Re5+ Kf7 40. g4 would have forced a nearly immediate
draw. This was likely why this game was unable to muster a better than
second to last place finish.



Below are the comments from the judges on why they ranked the game where they did and in parentheses is the ranking given by that judge and the number of points awarded for that ranking.


FM Robby Adamson (12th Place, 9 points): Milman gets credit for playing 1... e5 which he does not bust out very often and some style points are awarded for going into a Marshall Attack. Josh didn't play the line that well while Lev showed good understanding. I award this game nine points.



GM Alex Shabalov (12th Place, 9 points): Desperate Housewife vs Milkman. If not for the final position, the game itself, which was not remarkable for anything other than highly ungrounded, overly ambitious play from both sides, wouldn’t be so much fun. The final position itself adds nine points which brings the game itself to 12th place.



NM Dennis Monokroussos (13th Place, 8 points): Greg seemed really high on this game in his GOTW comments, but this tells me that he hasn’t seen enough Marshall Gambits in his life. Pretty much everything was typical through Black’s 30th move -- Milman had played well, but it was just another equal Marshall ending. Milman’s play both before and after that point was more convincing than Friedel’s, but had the latter chosen 39. Re5+ Kf7 40. g4, it would have been a well-played draw that no one would ever remember.



FM Ron Young (19th Place, 2 points): A nice, workmanlike performance by Black, though White missed a simple finesse at the end which would probably have drawn. And if you start making workmen feel special, who knows where it will end?



WGM Jennifer Shahade (20th Place, 1 point): Let me start with a really cheesy preface. All twenty of these games are winners: The best games from the best players in America from the greatest cities in our nation. However, I had to rank one game 20th place, and this was just as difficult as deciding which would come in 1st place.

My "Worst of the Winners" award goes to Friedel vs Milman. I do give props to Milman for fighting hard to reel in the win. But the Marshall Opening followed by a huge exchange of pieces was just not very inspiring to watch, and inspiring is definitely something I look for in my rankings. The fact that Josh could have easily drawn the endgame also bothered me.


Total Score of Friedel vs Milman: (19th Place, 29 Points)


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Stay tuned for seventeen more such articles as the field shrinks by one game each week to see which of the following games will be the 2007 Game of the Year!


Week 2: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

Week 3: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0 Article

Week 4: GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1 Article

Week 5: FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1 Article

Week 6: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0 Article

Week 7: IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 0-1 Article

Week 8: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 1-0 Article

Week 9: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0 Article

Week 10: IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0 Article

Wildcard Round: FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0 Article

Semifinals: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1 Article

Championship: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #1: IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #2: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #3: IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs GM Gregory Serper (SEA) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #5: IM Eric Tangborn (SEA) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 0-1 Article

Wildcard #6: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs FM Marc Arnold (NY) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #7: IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0 Article


Eliminated:


19th Place (29 Points): IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs IM Lev Milman (CAR) 0-1 Article

20th Place (7 Points): IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Denys Shmelov (BOS) 1-0 Article

Game of the Year 20th Place Critique

Once again, since I'm not a GOTY judge, it seems reasonably appropriate for me to jump in each week and give my impressions about the selection the judges happened to make and their comments on the selection.

I should note first off how my predictions have started off with a bang, not only predicting the place of this game correctly but also its number of points exactly! (I mention this not only to gloat but in response to Mr. Anonymous's comment about all my picks being wrong. I would use Elizabeth Vicary's patented in your face line here, but given that I don't know what Mr. Anonymous's face even looks like, I better not take the chance).

Although I did predict this game's placing and points exactly, I must confess I didn't anticipate it happening in exactly this fashion as my feeling would be that a couple of the judges would wrestle between putting this game and Friedel vs Milman in last place (just as myself and FM Braden Bournival did), and that it would manage to finagle two 19th place votes in that fashion (I must say I'm rather curious as to which game Jennifer Shahade picked lower than this one other than the aforementioned one).

I'll reiterate that I was a bit surprised by some of this game's commentary/rankings and here were some of my reactions (keep in mind I've been given tremendous leeway to be as harsh as possible):


Jennifer Shahade: What? Jenn really respects this game being picked a Wildcard? If she really respects this game's inclusion, I fear she might lose all HER respect as a judge from the get-go.


Alex Shabalov: Huh? That's it? No nicknames or anything? How boring! I mean I didn't expect nicknames for everyone, but for a game like this I at least expected a comment as juicy as the one he made on the Privman vs Krasik game last year. There he at least said some stuff about ... err wait it was censored wasn't it? Ok, never mind!


Ron Young: Wow. The way he says "It's not about winning or losing, it's about playing the game" is really quite eloquent. I don't know what Ron Young does, but he likely should look into becoming a kindergarten teacher. I mean that's where they first start teaching that concept right?


Stay tuned until next week when we announce the 19th place game, and I once again critique the judges' performance!

Game of the Year -- 20th Place

This is the first part in a weekly series of articles which will count down to revealing what game was voted as the 2007 USCL Game of the Year. The eligible entrants are the thirteen Games of the Week along with the seven Wildcards (full list). There are five judges who ranked the games from 1st to 20th. If a game is ranked in 1st place by a judge, it receives 20 points, if it's ranked 2nd place it receives 19 points, and so on with 20th place receiving 1 point with the games then being placed based on their total number of points. If there is a tie at a certain total, whichever amongst those games have a higher individual ranking will win on tie-break. (e.g. a game which gets a 1st + 4th ranking is higher than a game which gets a 2nd + 3rd).


The five judges are:

FM Robby Adamson
NM Dennis Monokroussos
GM Alex Shabalov
WGM Jennifer Shahade
FM Ron Young


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


20th Place: IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Denys Shmelov (BOS) 1-0


Below are the comments from the judges on why they ranked the game where they did and in parentheses is the ranking given by that judge and the number of points awarded for that ranking.



WGM Jennifer Shahade (18th Place, 3 points): I ranked this game 18th because Boston had already clinched the match while Shmelov was still in the game and also because Bonin was lost after a series of exchanges. On the other hand, I definitely could sense a lot of determination and fighting spirit from Bonin in this game, so I respect its inclusion as a Wildcard pick.



FM Robby Adamson (20th Place, 1 point): This game really should not have been even in consideration given that Shmelov outplayed Bonin for most of the game, and Bonin only won when the match had been decided, and Shmelov clearly relaxed and let his guard down. Therefore, I awarded this game only one point.



NM Dennis Monokroussos (20th Place, 1 point): In my opinion, this game shouldn’t have been eligible in the first place. If this was a contest for swindle of the year then okay, I’d understand. But not for Game of the Year! Shmelov was winning, easily, for many moves, before self-destructing in the face of White’s one and only trump. I’m a Bonin fan, but I’m not blind!



GM Alex Shabalov (20th Place, 1 point): A dramatic change of events, but both players were hardly in control of this game.



FM Ron Young (20th Place, 1 point): It is unfair to call this game "twentieth-best". Let’s call it "last among equals". I wish I could just split the prize twenty ways. The honor lies in the competing, not in the outcome. You’re all winners.


Total Score of Bonin vs Shmelov: (20th Place, 7 Points)


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Stay tuned for eighteen more such articles as the field shrinks by one game each week to see which of the following games will be the 2007 Game of the Year!


Week 1: IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs IM Lev Milman (CAR) 0-1 Article

Week 2: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

Week 3: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0 Article

Week 4: GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1 Article

Week 5: FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1 Article

Week 6: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0 Article

Week 7: IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 0-1 Article

Week 8: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 1-0 Article

Week 9: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0 Article

Week 10: IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0 Article

Wildcard Round: FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0 Article

Semifinals: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1 Article

Championship: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #1: IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #2: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #3: IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs GM Gregory Serper (SEA) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #5: IM Eric Tangborn (SEA) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 0-1 Article

Wildcard #6: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs FM Marc Arnold (NY) 1-0 Article

Wildcard #7: IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0 Article


Eliminated:


20th Place (7 Points): IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Denys Shmelov (BOS) 1-0 Article

Blogger of the Year Award

When the Blogger of the Year Award was announced, it was initially intended to be a tribute to David Glickman at the Boylston Blog. He did a tremendous job of reporting on the League in 2005 and 2006, and it was expected that he would continue to dominate the USCL Blogosphere. Things changed in 2007 however as the number of bloggers multiplied, and in the end there were three main contenders for the prize: Boylston Chess Club Blog, boston-blitz.com, and lizzyknowsall.blogspot.com

Because of boston-blitz.com's cutting edge video interviews and coverage, along with many nice reports and previews, they seemed to be the likely winner with a few weeks left in the season. Things took a major change once the playoffs began though as boston-blitz.com became very quiet while lizzyknowsall brought dozens of interviews that shed light into the players that most knew nothing about. Elizabeth Vicary's blog was close to outright receiving the award because during the most important time of the year, the postseason, her blog dwarfed the competitors in terms of content. It seemed as if every single day there was at least one new interview posted on her blog. In fact in the month of November, she posted 14 interviews including one with nearly every key member of the USCL Champion Dallas Destiny and at least two interviews from every other Semifinal team.

On top of this she generated a lot of controversy with what is likely the most popular blog entry in the history of the USCL: when she responded to Mark LaRocca's analysis of one of her moves. While some of the commentary in the thread may have been a bit over the edge, it was also entertaining and garnered over 80 responses.

At the same time though, we had to look at the overall professionalism of the boston-blitz site and the high quality and entertainment value of their videos. These attributes combined with Mark LaRocca's match recaps, the large photo galleries, and the chance to be a "Blitz Buddy" were impressive features which were hard to ignore.

In the end, given how much trouble we were having in making the decision, we elected to put it in the fans' hands (well sort of). We decided to let the team managers (other than Boston and New York's) each cast one vote between boston-blitz.com and lizzyknowsall.blogspot.com to decide the winner, and they wound up choosing in favor of lizzyknowsall.blogspot.com

In regards to David Glickman at the Boylston Blog, I will say that Glickman's individual reports are probably the best out there, but without the excellent video coverage, it was hard for him to measure up to the boston-blitz website. He still should be given a lot of credit for his detailed reports along with really being the pioneer of USCL Blogging back in the 2005 Season.

In other good news to those who want to compete for the 2008 award, Elizabeth Vicary has agreed for her blog to no longer be eligible as she will become the official interviewer for the USCL.


In all it was a great season for the USCL Blogosphere. Congratulations to Elizabeth Vicary at lizzyknowsall.blogspot.com and also thanks to all of the other contenders and the many other bloggers that I didn't mention here. Your predictions, power rankings, stories, and interviews were a big part of making the 2007 USCL season fantastic for everyone involved!

Arizona Scorpions and Chicago Blaze join the USCL

The United States Chess League is pleased to announce the two expansion teams for 2008. Both of these teams come from areas of large chess activity with plenty of chess stars to keep them competitive and lots of fan support to help their chess communities.

The Arizona Scorpions will be managed by NM Leo Martinez who will also be playing on the team. The Scorpions have already confirmed that IM Levon Altounian, IM Mark Ginsburg, FM Daniel Rensch, and FM Robby Adamson will also be on the team. The Scorpions will be joining the West Division.

Arizona will also become the first team to have two home playing sites. They will have a site in both Phoenix and Tucson, and the players will travel back and forth depending on which playing site happens to be more convenient for them for a particular match (of course all of the players will play from a single location in any given match).

Here is a quote from manager Leo Martinez: "We are honored to be a part of such a prestigious league that is clearly on the rise. The competition involved is clearly amongst the best in the nation, and we are enthusiastic and eager to compete. The Arizona community is excited about our introduction into the league and are confident that we can succeed. The chess community in Phoenix, Tucson, and across the state has always been strong, and this is another opportunity to show this. The depth of strong players across the state that are available is incredible and fitting a team of 8 players will be a challenge as there are many options."


Also joining the West Division will be the Chicago Blaze. Below is a quote from Blaze manager, USCF TD Glenn Panner:

"We are very pleased to introduce the Chicago Blaze into the US Chess League. The Blaze already have commitments from GM Dmitry Gurevich, IM Angelo Young, FM Mehmed Pasalic, and Adam Strunk to compete. The remainder of the roster will be determined at a later time. Glenn Panner will be the manager and Tom Panelas our PR manager. This team would not be possible without Angelo Young, our host at the Touch Move Chess Center, where we will play from. Another key contribution is from Sevan A. Muradian, the 2007 USCF Organizer of the Year, who has stirred the renaissance of Illinois Chess and will be handling our internet connection for the matches."


Because both of the new teams will be joining the West Division, one of the Western teams must move over to the East. The Carolina Cobras will be rejoining the East Division, where they played and qualified for the playoffs in 2006.

The league is very enthusiastic about these teams and looks forward to both being competitive additions to the USCL from the start.

Game of the Year Predictions/Picks

Now that the process for announcing the Wildcards is over, the time to debate which game should win is upon us. Even though I’m not a judge for the Game of the Year (GOTY) Contest this season, I figured why should that deter me from making some picks/predictions about what might occur. The prominent rankings will be based on what I suspect the judges this year might happen to do (though I will also note at the end where I would have ranked each game if given the chance).

In my opinion, I feel the contest for the GOTY winner is much trickier than last season. Although I was quite off in terms of predicting what would actually win the contest last year, I was still fairly certain that there was a batch of games which would definitely wind up being the pick of the litter (and given that the top five games were the same top five games that I picked, though not in the same order, it seems I was right). This year though I’m not nearly as confident in anything of that sort as I simply don’t see any clear front runners to win the contest. But I suppose that’s what will make it the most fun for you readers huh? I don’t plan to give any deep analysis of these games while I rank them since plenty of that was done during the Game of the Week (GOTW) contest, and I’m sure the GOTY Judges will provide much more meaningful insight in that regard than I can. I will merely be focusing on a few simple reasons as to why I think certain games will wind up being about where they are.

Now of course in order to try to predict where the games will finish, the immediate question is: Which amongst the criteria quality, excitement, relevance to match, intrigue, etc. will be considered most important? While there were endless debates during the season about which of these should be considered most pertinent when ranking games for the GOTW award, the only really relevant question at this stage is: What will our judging panel consider most important? Well let's take a brief look at our judges to see what they might hold in the highest regard.


FM Robby Adamson: As the judge who was almost certainly the most prominent watcher of the USCL this season (both via the early Chess.FM coverage and later on), it seems reasonably likely that his picks will favor the excitement factor. In my view, it's much more likely for any person to favor this factor when they view the games first hand as it gives you a completely different perspective to be "in the moment".

NM Dennis Monokroussos: Almost without a doubt the most thorough of judges. Between his Chessbase Shows, his blog, and his being the only judge who analyzed all the entrants last year with a computer (to my knowledge none of the other three judges: GM Shabalov, IM Shahade, or myself used a computer for any of them), I definitely expect him to be the judge who puts the most effort into ranking the games. This might lead one to think that he will favor a game's quality factor (as computers tend to), but his last year's rankings clearly also did consider the games' other attributes. I see his picks being a fair mix of the mentioned factors.

GM Alex Shabalov: As the obvious strongest judge (and based on his last year's rankings), I definitely expect him to favor a game's sheer quality quite heavily. However, there was a nasty rumor floating around last season that most of his time in judging this contest had been spent in dreaming up nicknames for the players (click here for an example) rather than actually looking at the games! While I can't establish any veracity to that rumor, it does seem likely that his commentary this season might give us more of a clue as to whether that has any merit.

WGM Jennifer Shahade: Being the editor of Chess Life Online, Jen clearly understands the balance of posting material which is a proper mix of quality and excitement, and I would guess her rankings will follow that pattern also. As someone who either wrote or proofread an article on the USCL each week she should also be reasonably familiar with all the entrants which should definitely be in her favor. Then again, she is a relative of the Commissioner so that can't be in her favor.

FM Ron Young: The toughest judge to nail down as his only known endeavor in the league, prior to this point, is his entertaining match predictions. How will he function when he has to be serious (at least in terms of his rankings)? Your guess is as good as mine, but I have a feeling we might hear some debates about whether his or GM Shabalov's commentary is more humorous.



A few minor notes. As you might notice, there will be some Wildcard games which I will rank higher in either place than I ranked them in comparison to their GOTW counterpart in that particular week. This could be a result of coming to the belief that I made the wrong pick then or simply my feeling that the judges will happen to hold the game in question in higher regard (or perhaps a combination of the two). Also, for "number of points" in these predictions, that refers to the fact that each judge will assign a game between 1 and 20 points so that's my feeling of about how many points a game will wind up with total. Do also note that I might happen to predict a game to finish lower than another game despite listing the former's probability to finish in the Top Five, its probability to win, or its number of points as higher. This could be a result of either variance (e.g. while I might think the game in question will on average have a lower ranking, in more situations I feel it will wind up in the Top Five), or it could be me simply predicting an upset of some sort.

Ok enough rambling, onto the predictions!


20th Place: IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Denys Shmelov (BOS) 1-0. I must say that I was shocked when this game was picked as a Wildcard. Why? Well because I frankly didn’t think it deserved to be in the GOTY contest. And if it doesn’t deserve to be in the contest then why should it do well in it? Simple answer: it shouldn’t.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 100,000
Probability of Winning: 1 / 1,000,000
Number of Points: 7

Article



19th Place: IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs IM Lev Milman (CAR) 0-1. As I stated when this game won GOTW, I personally didn’t think it was even close to deserving it. If it didn’t deserve to win GOTW, why should it do well in GOTY? Err wait, didn’t I just ask a question like this? I suppose I did, but luckily the same answer should suffice: it shouldn’t.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 10,000
Probability of Winning: 1 / 100,000
Number of Points: 11

Article



18th Place: FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1. Despite the fact that this was an exciting game, it seems that there were probably more mistakes late in it than was initially realized. Given those mistakes were the main reason why this game was exciting doesn’t seem likely to sit well with the judges.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 1000
Probability of Winning: 1 / 10,000
Number of Points: 18

Article



17th Place: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0. Even though this was only one of two games which was a unanimous choice for GOTW (the other being the Bhat vs. Nakamura game), I don’t see it getting a high ranking. It simply was not that exciting an affair, and even though the endgame was interesting, given that two time pressure blunders from Black were largely responsible for the result, it seems unlikely the judges will be overly impressed.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 3 / 200
Probability of Winning: 1 / 800
Number of Points: 25

Article



16th Place: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0. This was a fairly exciting encounter, but like the Mikhailuk vs. Schroer struggle, the moves which made this game so interesting really may have been mistakes with Black seemingly missing a couple of chances to get a clear advantage. Once again, that seems unlikely to make a favorable impression on the judges.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 150
Probability of Winning: 1 / 800
Number of Points: 24

Article



15th Place: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0. This game definitely held a large amount of importance being from the Finals and like basically all of Sammour-Hasbun’s games containing some nice tactical tricks. The opening was also very interesting with the piece configuration White had so early in the game not being something that you see every day. But realistically given that it seemed that Black was better for nearly the whole game until the tactical trickery kicked in, I’m not sure the judges will be that enthused.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 75
Probability of Winning: 1 / 400
Number of Points: 33

Article



14th Place: IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0. This was just a very solid performance from White fairly dismantling one of the strongest players in the league. Obviously a good game, but it was fairly one-sided and didn’t contain any especially flashy moves so it just doesn't seem to quite hold a candle to most of the other candidates.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 60
Probability of Winning: 1 / 250
Number of Points: 40

Article



13th Place: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TN) 1-0. This was a fairly simple yet nice encounter which was a pretty clean game from both ends and had some nice tactics by White along with a fairly interesting finish. A good game to be sure, though I’m skeptical as to whether the things which made it so were any better than many of the other candidates. That being the case, I see a medium to low ranking for this game.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 45
Probability of Winning: 1 / 200
Number of Points: 43

Article



12th Place: IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0. I must confess that I really have no idea where the judges will rank this game, but given it seems uncertain in that regard probably a middle of the road ranking won't be especially far off.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 40
Probability of Winning: 1 / 175
Number of Points: 48

Article



11th Place: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs FM Marc Arnold (NY) 1-0. This game should have perhaps won GOTW when it had the chance, but it seemed at the time that Black really hadn’t made much of an effort to defend basically assuring that the game was inevitably going to go to White. As it turned out though, it may well have been that Black really just didn’t have a way to defend his position making White’s sacrifices much more impressive than originally thought. Impressive yes, but Nd5 sacs aren’t exactly original in the Najdorf either so I’m not really sure how impressed the judges will be. Putting this in the dead center seems most appropriate.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 2 / 15 (13%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 90
Number of Points: 58

Article



10th Place: IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0. A very pleasing piece sacrifice by White to force an immediate win and save the New York Knights' season. I’m sure this sac will score several points in the judges’ eyes, but at the same time Black’s somewhat overly cooperative play walking into it might cause it to lose some points too. Another medium type ranking seems the most likely place for this to wind up.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 15 (7%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 125
Number of Points: 55

Article



9th Place: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0. This was by far the trickiest game to predict as to where it would end up as I could see it getting a higher or much lower ranking depending on the way the judges look at it. It definitely wasn’t one of the more accurate games, but you don’t exactly see games where a person having a 70-1 time disadvantage and a worse position winds up winning against one of the best blitz players in the world everyday so that has to count for something. Once again, I could see this game getting a wide variety of rankings so placing it near the center of the pack seems like the only safe bet to me. However, the preliminary voting in the GOTY Poll on the USCL Site seems to suggest that many people think this game will achieve a much higher ranking than I've given it (and perhaps even win). As I said, I think this game is a bit of an anomaly in terms of the appeal it has and so won't be especially surprised by nearly any ranking it gets. Overall, I think it just has a few too many mistakes to outweigh its intrigue value and highly doubt we'll see it in the Top Three.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 3 (33%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 30
Number of Points: 69

Article



8th Place: IM Eric Tangborn (SEA) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 0-1. This game was definitely exciting and quite well played. It probably will get some high marks for Black’s near flawless play both tactically and positionally but once again the fairly one-sided nature of it due in large part to White’s seemingly passive opening might prevent it from getting too high a ranking. One thing that definitely bodes well for it though is that Greg admitted when he chose this as a Wildcard how he'd fouled up when not ranking this in the GOTW contest. Now, while the number of times Greg tends to be wrong on any given day is higher than most people can count, the number of times he's admitted it in his life probably can be counted on most people's fingers so that has to signify something.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 4 (25%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 35
Number of Points: 66

Article



7th Place: IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs IM Ron Burnett (TN) 0-1. Another somewhat one-sided affair but still a great performance by Black with his thematic exchange sacrifice and very elegant finish. I’m not absolutely positive this game deserves quite so high a ranking, but as Greg pointed out in the comments for that week, Ilya Krasik happened to agree with this game winning GOTW. And if Ilya agrees with it – well you know you definitely stumbled onto something!

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 2 / 5 (40%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 20 (5%)
Number of Points: 73

Article



6th Place: IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs GM Gregory Serper (SEA) 1-0. Greg has stated multiple times to me that this game has no chance to even crack the Top 10 in this contest (and thus called me some inappropriate names for picking it as my first Wildcard). While I know Greg doesn’t really get tired of being wrong (for obvious reasons), it seems likely that he doesn’t get nearly as much opportunity to stay in practice during the off-season which probably has a tendency to send him into a state of fair malaise. Hopefully when this game does wind up getting a high ranking, it will be some much needed medicine for him.

I think this game might well make it onto the medal stand, but Friedel has developed a knack for finishing on the edge in these sorts of contests (no one will forget last year after all) – an ability which is hard to shake yourself of once it develops, so why not again here?

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 4 / 9 (44%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 20 (5%)
Number of Points: 72

Article



5th Place: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0. This game was clearly very interesting and contained some fairly flashy moves. The tricky part about where this game will wind up is how much of a detraction the judges see the somewhat sloppy opening play by White and the “walking into the firestorm” moves by Black to be. Due to those factors, I don’t see this game quite making the tip top in this contest, but given how well White played after the early stages along with the cute tactics, it still has to be pretty high.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 5 / 9 (56%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 10 (10%)
Number of Points: 77

Article



4th Place: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1. I must admit I wasn’t completely enthralled by this game. However, it's very clear that a majority of the spectators and the other two GOTW judges were enthralled and if that many people were blown away by it, it seems only logical that some number of the GOTY judges will be also which can only translate to a fairly high ranking.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 1 / 2 (50%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 12 (8%)
Number of Points: 76

Article



3rd Place: GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1. This seems very likely to be a medal winner with it just being a well played game throughout – no huge blunders from either side along with a very fascinating ending which endlessly reverted back and forth between "certain draw" and "win for Black" when being debated online. Plus if Charbonneau has shown anything, it’s an ability to win this contest when not expected to (as he did in 2005 and 2006). While I can’t consider him the favorite to three-peat, I won’t be nearly as surprised at him winning this year as I was last year (plus since I ranked his game third place last year also, it could become something of a tradition).

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 3 / 4 (75%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 5 (20%)
Number of Points: 85

Article



2nd Place: FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0. This was another fairly tricky game to predict with the main thing coming down to whether how much the judges will feel the fact that the most surprising moves were a result of home preparation should play into its ranking. When putting that fact aside, to me this game would unquestionably be the best, but will the judges essentially want to give $1000 to "Becerra’s files"? Part of me thinks no so I won’t give this game the top ranking here.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 4 / 5 (80%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 4 (25%)
Number of Points: 88

Article



1st Place: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0. Yes a game which didn’t even win GOTW is my guess to win GOTY (which just reiterates my early point about how close the contest seems to be this season). The somewhat one-sided nature of this game might once again be a detraction (as it could be for several games), but it still was a basically flawless performance by Becerra just making one nice move after another, never letting his opponent breathe for a second and then finishing the game in flashy style. This seems as worthy a candidate to be GOTY winner as any other.

Probability of finishing in Top Five: 2 / 3 (67%)
Probability of Winning: 1 / 6 (17%)
Number of Points: 82

Article



My Rankings (if I'd been a judge this season):


20. IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Denys Shmelov (BOS) 1-0
19. IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs IM Lev Milman (CAR) 0-1
18. FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1
17. NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0
16. IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0
15. IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0
14. SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0
13. IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0
12. GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TN) 1-0
11. IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0
10. IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0
9. NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs FM Marc Arnold (NY) 1-0
8. GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1
7. GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0
6. IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs IM Ron Burnett (TN) 0-1
5. IM Eric Tangborn (SEA) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 0-1
4. IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs GM Gregory Serper (SEA) 1-0
3. GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0
2. GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1
1. FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0


Be sure to keep tuned to the USCL website and this blog as we release the actual rankings of the games from 20th to 1st a week at a time (if for no reason other than to laugh at how bad my above predictions wound up being).