Remainder of Week 7 Predictions

I would hope I can do better than last week, but when I only got one correct result out of six, improving shouldn't be that hard should it?


New York over Boston 2.5 – 1.5

Baltimore over Queens 3 – 1

Carolina over Tennessee 2.5 – 1.5

San Francisco over Miami 2.5 – 1.5

Seattle over Dallas 2.5 – 1.5

Monday Night Prediction -- Week 7

So this week we have a Monday night struggle between the Philadelphia Inventors and the New Jersey Knockouts, the two teams I predicted to finish in the last two spots in the East at the beginning of the season. It seems that that belief (like most of mine) wasn’t exactly correct as these two teams are not only far from last, both are in prime position to make the playoffs with this match likely to be a big determiner ff those playoff dreams will be fulfilled. Let’s see how they match up on each board.


Board 1: Kudrin vs. Benjamin. Kudrin finally displayed last week that he was capable of playing a decisive game in the league (and in a good way despite the overall team result!), and I’m sure the Inventors would really appreciate a repeat performance. Benjamin likely may prove a bit tougher to score the full point against, but as always slight edge to the GM who happens to have White. (Slight Edge PHI)



Board 2: Ippolito vs. Smith. Smith has unfortunately, after starting the season solidly, somewhat reverted to his last season’s form in only scoring 0.5 in his last 4 games. Although Ippolito hasn’t played that many games in the league yet, he’s known to be very tough with White so it looks good for the Knockouts on this board. (Edge NJ)



Board 3: Costigan vs. Friedman. Based on his first game, Friedman appeared to be in at least reasonable form likely alleviating at least some worries about his potential rust (so hopefully all of his fans who were stopping by during his last week’s game and saying "Is this Aviv Friedman playing?? No way!!" can be somewhat at ease). Costigan though has certainly been no slouch in the league and despite the uneven ratings, to me Costigan is clearly stronger than his league rating and given he has White, I’m inclined to think this game is pretty level. (Even)



Board 4: Lian vs. Yeager. Lian had a very promising initial game in the league taking down a player who has been very strong in the league, with the Black pieces, in what turned out to be quite a well played game by him. One game is however only one game, and it’s hard to ignore the Inventors rather large rating edge on this board (especially using updated ratings) so definite edge to Philly here. (Edge PHI)



Over the board, like most USCL matches, this is not one which really provides much of an edge to either team on paper. You might think I’d be inclined to call this match (like many matches) a tie based on that, but I’ve predicted the last two Monday Night Matches to be ties, and the commissioner made some ugly threats toward me as to what might happen if I do it again so based on the large board four edge I think they have, I’ll take Philadelphia 2.5 – 1.5

(FM Ron Young also predicts Philadelphia to win 2.5 - 1.5).

Power Rankings -- Week 6

So the inter-league play was, as somewhat expected, fairly clarifying to the playoff race as now there are two indisputable favorites to win the two divisions. However, the race in each division for the three overall playoff spots still remains quite murky and much work still remains for those teams if they want to be in the post season. Here is how things appear to be to me right now.

1^st: Boston Blitz (5.0 – 1.0) (+0 from last week). Boston continues to impress in using a much lower rated team than usual and still fairly comfortably knocking off the defending Champions. It’s fairly ridiculous to me as to how good a team they really seem to be in entirety right now, and I don’t envy the other Eastern teams who will likely have the task of knocking them off in the playoffs when they have draw odds. Boston’s one minor flaw may still only be the pesky Chabonneau issue, and it’s likely that problem might rear its head again this week and given how desperate the Knights are at this point, the Blitz can expect a very tough match. (Win Division: 85%, Make Playoffs: 99%)

2^nd: Dallas Destiny (5.0 – 1.0) (+0). This week really could not have been scripted any better for the Destiny with their victory as well as their serious challengers for the division crown all being defeated. They now face the Sluggers two weeks consecutively with a huge chance to cement their division win as if they can even split the series, it will be nearly impossible for any team to catch them and as long as they don’t get swept, they still will be in a good position to take the division. However, not having lost a match yet this season, I don’t see them suddenly losing two in a row. (77%, 97%)

3^rd: Seattle Sluggers (3.5 – 2.5) (+0). Plagued by likely the worst connection issues to befall a team in the league’s short history, Seattle suffered a tough loss to New York. How much the connection issues might have played into this defeat is of course anyone’s guess, but Seattle will have to put that behind them and look ahead to their upcoming back to back encounters with Dallas. Though it’s going to be tough for them to take the division title at this stage, they likely should be concentrating on just making sure they make the playoffs as I don’t see San Francisco or Carolina going quietly into the night. (12%, 72%)

4^th: Baltimore Kingfishers (3.5 – 2.5) (+1). Baltimore maintained their hold on second place in the division, but really had to be anything but pleased with the overall results of this week as they seemed to most to be heavy favorites to win but couldn’t capitalize (and were really fortunate in the end to even draw the match as they very easily could have lost it). Combined with Boston’s victory they, like Seattle, can’t really be thinking too much about winning their division as the focus now just has to be on getting into the playoffs. I still see them as likely to do so, but a victory this week, as I’m sure they were counting on, would have gotten them a lot further in that regard. Hopefully they do not have to play any further matches without either of their GMs. (7%, 67%)

5^th: San Francisco Mechanics (3.0 – 3.0) (-1). The defending champions suffered another alarming setback, and it seems almost certain at this point that they will not three-peat as division champions and as the two teams above, they must be quite concerned with simply making the playoffs at this point. The Mechanics are obviously a much better team than their record this season shows, just all of their players other than Bhat seem to be unable to find their groove so far. (7%, 64%)

6^th: New Jersey Knockouts (3.5 – 2.5) (+2). It seems that I really must begin to show the Knockouts some respect as a couple of weeks ago when they were 1.5 – 2.5, I would have pegged them as the East Team least likely to make the playoffs, but with two consecutive victories now seem to be in a prime position to do so. They still have their work quite cut out for them in facing one of their main rivals for the remaining playoff spots in the East, Philadelphia, and then league leading Boston in their next two matches. (5%, 60%)

7^th: Carolina Cobras (3.0 – 3.0) (-1). A tough loss for Carolina this week as I’m sure they were counting on a good result on board four yet that was the only board where they couldn’t manage to score. Jones seems to be having a tougher go of it this season than the form he displayed in being a 2006 All Star, but he still has time to turn things around and help the Cobras make the playoffs. (4%, 62%)

8^th: Philadelphia Inventors (3.0 – 3.0) (-1). A difficult loss for the Inventors to the Destiny has currently knocked them to fourth place. They still very much control their own fate as to whether they make the playoffs in facing off against their two main competitors for the second and third spots in the East, Baltimore and New Jersey, in the next two weeks, but a loss next week will likely put them in dire straits. (3%, 48%)

9^th: New York Knights (2.0 – 4.0) (+1). The Knights finally managed to get their first victory of the season (after I finally had lost faith in them and picked them to lose for the first time this season this past week, I might add). While they might have given their fans something to cheer about finally, they still are running very short on time to recover their playoff dreams, with them still almost certainly needing a 3.5 – 0.5 record to acquire that spot, and they face off against the undefeated, red-hot Boston team next week. Hopefully for them the Charbonneau mojo over Boston stays in place for that match as there isn’t really a time where they needed it more. (0%, 14%)

10^th: Queens Pioneers (2.0 – 4.0) (-1). Like the Knights, Queens is treading on the brink of elimination and will need a similar record in their last four matches to make the post season. They still have to face Boston along the way (along with having to face their equally desperate subway foes, the Knights) so it’s going to be anything but easy for them. (0%, 12%)

11^th: Miami Sharks (1.5 – 4.5) (+0). Despite only drawing this week, the Sharks actually gained some ground in their quest for a playoff spot with all of their main competitors falling this week. However, despite bridging the gap to the teams they are chasing, with only four matches left, it still seems unlikely that two of those teams will collapse enough to allow the Sharks in. They are somewhat fortunate in that they do face all three of those teams before the regular season ends, allowing them to somewhat control their own fate in that regard, but it’s almost certain they will need a 4 – 0 record to make it, and that’s just not something that can be expected. (0%, 5%)

12^th: Tennessee Tempo (1.0 – 5.0) (+0). The Tempo suffered another match this week which basically epitomized their season as a whole, being in a prime position to win their match but unable to hold off being snake bitten late and having to settle for a draw. It’s still a definite building block for their team in once again showing how competitive they really can be despite their record. If they could just manage to solve their late match blues, who knows how good a team they actually could be. (0%, 0%)

Prediction Results -- Week 6

So it appears my losing the lead in the prediction contest might not have been an anomaly after all as I struggled mightily this week only predicting one correct result while Ron Young continued his hot streak in once again predicting four correct results out of six (having predicted four and five correct ones in the previous two weeks).

Total after Week 6:

Ron Young (+12 This Week): 60
Arun Sharma (+4): 52
Josh Gutman (+5): 34

NJ over CAR 2.5 – 1.5

JG/RY: Correct +3

AS: Tie +0

MIA ties QNS 2 – 2

AS/RY: Correct +4

JG: MIA 2.5 – 1.5 +0

DAL over PHI 2.5 – 1.5

JG/AS: Tie +0

RY: PHI 2.5 – 1.5 +0

BAL ties TN 2 – 2

JG/AS/RY: BAL 3 – 1 +0

BOS over SF 2.5 – 1.5

RY: Correct +3

JG/AS: SF 2.5 – 1.5 +0

NY over SEA 3 – 1

JG/RY: NY 2.5 – 1.5 +2

AS: SEA 2.5 – 1.5 +0

Week 6 Game of the Week

This year for game of the week we have three judges, all ranking their top five games. The games are then given anywhere from one to five points, based on these rankings, and whichever game receives the most points wins the award. Also note that this year the winner each week will receive a $100 bonus prize. Our three judges are: IM Greg Shahade, NM Arun Sharma, and Jonathan Hilton. Click here for more details.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1st Place: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0


Arun Sharma: Although this game seemed a bit one-sided in looking back on it, I still felt it was a very impressive performance by the legendary attacker. One very nice move was 20. g3!, a rather quite looking move which was really the main catalyst in gearing up White’s attack. Of course, the likely star move was 27. Nd5!!, which really tore Black’s position apart and forced the win of a piece. After that, the simple liquidating move, 34. Bxf5! was a nice finishing touch to a great game. This was a huge win by Christiansen to help the Blitz knock off the defending champions and put the Blitz in prime position to take the division title for the second year in a row. (1st place: 5 points)


Greg Shahade: A game that's typical of Christiansen's style. He threw everything but the kitchen sink at Wolff, causing him to walk his king from the kingside over to the queenside, where it was eventually cornered by the finishing blow, 38. c4. It was probably a clear mistake for Wolff to accept Christiansen's sacrifice with 20....Qxg3. This gave Christiansen exactly the kind of position he thrives in....a raging attack against the black king. Overall a very crowd pleasing performance, that exemplified Christiansen's strength's while showing that Wolff still has a bit of rust to shake off. (1st place: 5 points)


Jonathan Hilton: This week’s competition was a close race between Christiansen and Becerra. I especially liked the way Christiansen allowed his pawn structure to be “damaged” by 15. … dxe4 in return for attacking chances. 20. g3! was a nice touch. I cannot understand why Black took it! Retreating the queen with 20. … Qc7 would have kept the game balanced, though White would still have the ability to work up a dangerous attack by running the g-pawn up to g5. After Black’s king was forced to run to the center, the game was all but over. (2nd place: 4 points)


Total Score of Christiansen vs Wolff: 14 points

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2nd Place: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0


Jonathan Hilton: It seems as if, for better or worse, I end up voting for a Sicilian to take first place in the Game of the Week competition! Whereas last week I voted for Benjamin’s crushing pawn storm with White over Charbonneau, this week I’m praising Becerra’s piece play. Becerra played the solid yet flexible 12. Qh3 rather than launching into an immediate pawn storm, and his choice paid off. His pawn sacrifice 13. e5!! could hardly have been declined: on 13. … Be7 White takes on d6, brings his knight to e4, and opens the center further with f4-f5. After the sacrifice, Becerra simply kept the piece pressure up the entire game, and Stripunsky was eventually forced to capitulate. A decisive victory! (1st Place: 5 points)


Arun Sharma: Though, like the Christiansen game, this might have appeared one-sided in retrospect, it still was a very impressive game by the victor, the sort which really won Becerra the MVP last season. Beginning with 13. e5! followed by 14. f5!, Becerra gained a nice initiative which Stripunsky could never seem to strip him of, being threatened with disaster basically every move until he could hold out no longer when hit with the nice tactic 27. Rd1! to which there was no answer. Another great performance by MVP Leader Becerra to help keep Miami’s slim playoff hopes alive. (2nd place: 4 points)


Greg Shahade: It was a really tough decision for me this week, as to whether this game or Christiansen-Wolff should retain first place. I would have been fine with either of these games as the winner, as both were impressive demolitions of strong opponents. The main differences in this game and the Christiansen-Wolff game were that in this game white was attacking a stationary target (the black king remained on e8 for most of the game), while in the Christiansen game the black king ran all over the place. I suspect that even though this game didn't win the GotW prize, it will still be in the running for the game of the year contest. This season we are going to have the 13 game of the week winners, along with 7 wildcards (games chosen by the GotW judges that we feel deserve a shot), for a total of 20 games. We expect to have many more judges as well, probably at least 6-8 in total, so it should be really exciting! In any case I would be very surprised if this game doesn't get chosen as a wildcard. (2nd place: 4 points)


Total Score of Becerra vs Stripunsky: 13 points

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3rd Place: FM Todd Andrews (TN) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0


Arun Sharma: This was a very well-played game by Andrews speared by the nice sacrifice 26. Ngf5!, forcing open Kaufman’s King to which Kaufman soon had to return the piece to avoid being mated which forced the game into a pawn up ending for White which he managed to convert without much trouble. After his very rough first season, Andrews has performed quite well this season, and he and the remainder of the Tennessee season could be a much better performing team next year if they continue to improve. (3rd place: 3 points)


Jonathan Hilton: This game is a classic, textbook example of a Ruy Lopez. I couldn’t spot any errors in Andrews’ execution of this ancient Ruy middlegame plan of sacrificing a knight on f5. I suspect this game must have taken a lot of patience to play, as it was seventy-eight moves long! (3rd place: 3 points)


Greg Shahade: A nice effort from Andrews, in what was probably his best USCL game to date. The opening buildup was impressive and I only didn't rank it higher because the game went so long and wasn't especially flashy. Also while watching the game I got the impression that Andrews technique left a bit to be desired but after looking at it again, it seems reasonable, and actually a testament to Kaufman that he resisted as well as he did. Maybe I need a little more patience like my two esteemed colleagues? (5th place: 1 point)


Total Score of Andrews vs Kaufman: 7 points


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Other Considered Games (judges' scores in parenthesis)


4 points (Greg 2, Jon 2): NM Craig Jones (CAR) vs Jayson Lian (NJ) 0-1

3 points (Greg 3): Gregory Young (SF) vs NM Chris Williams (BOS) 0-1

2 points (Arun 2): IM Alejandro Moreno Roman (MIA) vs NM Parker Zhao (QNS) 0-1

2 points (Arun 1, Jon 1): IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs FM John Readey (SEA) 1-0

2007 Midseason All Stars

So given we are at the midpoint of the regular season, I thought it would be a good idea to give you readers an idea of who at this point we feel would comprise the two All Star Teams. The criteria for this selection (as will be the criteria for the end of the year selection) are basically the same line of thought that went into last year's selections. These are of course somewhat rough estimations given the end of the year selections have much more data to base such picks on, but I think they still should give a fair idea as to who's gotten a good jump start into potentially receiving the end of the year award. Please note that for the actual All Star teams at the end of the season, there will be three teams instead of two. Here is how I think things stand at this point.




First All Star Team:


Board 1: GM Gregory Serper (SEA, 2 – 0 – 2). Board 1 was a tough board to select for as there at this point doesn’t really appear to be any truly stand out candidates. I felt the main choices were Serper, Becerra, Christiansen, and Benjamin. The former two have the better records at this point, both having a +2 score while the latter two are +1. However, the latter two I think have really faced much tougher competition overall making all the choices somewhat similar in that regard. Overall though, I think Serper probably does have slightly the strongest mix of these two concepts and add to the fact that both of his victories (defeating Friedel and defeating Milman) have garnered attention from the Game of the Week judges (both being ranked in the Top Five by two of the three judges), I think he becomes the most logical candidate for the First Team at this stage.


Board 2: IM Vinay Bhat (SF, 3 – 0 – 0). This board was fairly easy to choose the two stars as Bhat and Sammour-Hasbun really have a leg up on the all of the other competitors of this board. The only real decision to me was which of them deserved to be on the First Team. Though they have the same record at this point, I feel that Bhat has faced slightly tougher competition (having to defeat Nakamura) and given that he has won Game of the Week twice, clearly his games have been of fairly high quality which makes me think he’s the appropriate choice for the First Team.


Board 3: NM Denys Shmelov (BOS, 2 – 0 – 2). Another fairly easy decision for me as Shmelov has the best current record amongst the Board Three players, and his USCL rating being quite a bit lower than most of his Board Three counterparts, his value so far is extremely clear. The fact that he has a +2 score despite being so out rated and having had the Black pieces in three games out of four makes it quite impressive to me.


Board 4: NM Chris Williams (BOS, 3 – 0 – 0). Yet another obvious choice as Williams also has the clear best record on this board and has defeated two very tough opponents knocking off Wilson, a 2005 All Star, and winning against Lee a strong 2006 All Star Contender. To me there is really no debate that Williams is the current best Board Four in the League, but it still remains to be seen if he can be so dominant when he has the Black pieces as he has yet to have them so far.




Second All Star Team:


Board 1: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS, 1 – 0 – 3) As stated above, to me this wasn't a very simple decision as Becerra and Benjamin also seemed like very worthy candidates for this position. I decided on Christiansen for one because I do think he has faced the toughest schedule overall, but also for the fact that being on the league leading team, his results have clearly meant a bit more to the team's success than the other two.


Board 2: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS, 3 – 0 – 0) The only other halfway reasonable choice for Board Two All Star as having such an impressive record on any of the higher boards definitely merits watching. It's unfortunate that we won't have a chance to see Sammour-Hasbun take on his main rival in this department, Bhat, when Boston takes on San Francisco this week, in what I'm sure would have been a great match but who knows maybe that will be an encounter which occurs in the Finals. Although Bhat and Sammour-Hasbun were the obvious two choices for the All Stars here, Board Two really has many good candidates who could have fit the bill if one of these two not been around such as Vovsha of Queens and Schroer of Carolina.


Board 3: IM Jacek Stopa (DAL, 2 – 0 – 1) A 2006 First Team All Star on Board Two, I doubt it can surprise anyone to see Stopa performing well on Board Three. He is however Dallas's main ace in this regard (as they are generally lower rated on Boards One and Four to compensate having him on Three) so his performance to me is not quite as impressive as that of Shmelov. He did play quite impressively in both of his victories though and looking at pure strength is probably the strongest Board Three in the league.


Board 4: Joshua Sinanan (SEA, 2 – 0 – 0) This was a bit of a tougher decision to me as I also considered Wilson of Philadelphia for this spot since although Sinanan has the better +2 record at this point, he's only played two games while Wilson despite only being +1, has played every week so obviously in that sense has held more value for his team up to this point. I eventually decided Sinanan should hold that spot at this point as both of his victories have been fairly dominating wins, and he is thus far the only the only person to deal a loss to the young talents on the Mechanics' Board Four (who other than that loss are so far 3.5 / 4 collectively).

Week 6 Predictions

Look for me to regain my lead this week!


New Jersey ties Carolina 2 – 2

Miami ties Queens 2 – 2

Dallas ties Philadelphia 2 – 2

Baltimore over Tennessee 3 – 1

San Francisco over Boston 2.5 – 1.5

Seattle over New York 2.5 – 1.5

Prediction Results -- Week 5

So I’ve lost the lead in the prediction contest for the first time this season. I’m quite certain it’s just a statistical anomaly though so expect to see me back on top soon!

Total after Week 5:


Ron Young (+12 This Week): 48
Arun Sharma (+9): 48
Josh Gutman (+8): 29

DAL over MIA 2.5 – 1.5

JG/RY: Correct +3

AS: Tie +0

NJ over NY 2.5 – 1.5

AS/RY: Tie +0

JG: NY 2.5 – 1.5 +0

BOS ties BAL 2 – 2

AS: Correct +4

JG/RY: BOS 2.5 – 1.5 +0

PHI over QNS 2.5 – 1.5

JG/AS/RY: Correct +3

SF over TN 4 – 0

JG: SF 3.5 – 1.5 +2

RY: SF 3 – 1 +2

AS: SF 2.5 – 1.5 +2

CAR ties SEA 2 – 2

RY: Correct +4

JG/AS: SEA 2.5 – 1.5 +0

Power Rankings -- Week 5

Midway through the season, there have certainly been many surprises (as there always are I suppose) in this season of the USCL. More than a few teams are probably in a position right now that few expected them to be prior to the season, but for the most part nothing has really been firmly decided in the playoff races and nearly every team still has a chance to fulfill their dreams if they can get things to go their way in the second half of the season. Next week will likely be very defining for the playoffs as it is all inter-league play (the last inter-league play of the season), and teams which can win while their divisional counterparts do not, will gain a huge footing in the playoff races. This is the way things look to me right now.

1^st: Boston Blitz (4.0 – 1.0) (+0 from last week). Boston, despite sitting out two of their top three performers Shmelov and Williams, still had a fairly comfortable draw against their likely biggest challengers (at least in my view) for the division crown, the Baltimore Kingfishers using a very tough lineup. Although Boston no longer outright holds the best record in the league, to me they are still clearly the team to beat. (Win Division: 48%, Make Playoffs: 95%)

2^nd: Dallas Destiny (4.0 – 1.0) (+0). Dallas regained their half game lead in the West in defeating an impressive Miami lineup and confirming what I believed last week, that they are likely the best team in the West right now. That they have regained their lead despite sitting their biggest asset (again in my view) Stopa out for two consecutive weeks is again something that really to me speaks well of their chances. (33%, 83%)

3^rd: Seattle Sluggers (3.5 – 1.5) (+0). Seattle had a tough draw this week against Carolina and lost a little ground to Dallas. It’s still hard to overlook the overall hot streak Seattle has been on since their Week 1 loss, and they still have to be considered a big threat to win their division. The consecutive matches in Weeks 7 and 8 with Dallas are likely to being a big determiner of whether that will happen. (30%, 77%)

4^th: San Francisco Mechanics (3.0 – 2.0) (+0). After the Mechanics’ unbeaten streak ended a week earlier, more than a few doubters seemed to crop up wondering if they still had it in them to win the division or even make the playoffs. They definitely sent a resounding message in that regard with their sweep this week, despite being a bit shorthanded due to players being away in Miami, against a plucky Tennessee team who despite having a poor record had really been anything but easy to beat this season. (25%, 71%)

5^th: Baltimore Kingfishers (3.0 – 2.0) (+0). Baltimore had a pretty respectable result this week on paper, drawing the top team in the league. In actuality though, I think it might be hard for them to look on that result too positively as this was a real chance to make a statement that they were going to give Boston a serious challenge for the division title and with Boston resting their two lower board stars, the Kingfishers really probably were looking to win this match. It remains to be seen if they are able to contend with the very best lineups of Boston. (24%, 73%)

6^th: Carolina Cobras (3.0 – 2.0) (+0). Carolina continues to surprise, especially Schroer, who had not performed well in his few league outings prior to this season, but so far is undefeated in four games and is in contention for league MVP honors. With this kind of balance and overall strength, the Cobras seem like a real threat against whoever they play. Once again, I’m still skeptical if they can long term hope to score well against the very best lineups of the top teams which will make it hard for them to win the Championship, but making the playoffs seems more than likely at this stage. (12%, 64%)

7^th: Philadelphia Inventors (3.0 – 2.0) (+1). The Inventors got back on track this week, beating a very strong Queens lineup. They now have solidly placed themselves back on the playoff track, but like the Kingfishers, it remains to be seen if they can really challenge the Blitz, especially when they use their best lineups. (18%, 62%)

8^th: New Jersey Knockouts (2.5 – 2.5) (+2). New Jersey got their first notch in the win column, and it really couldn’t have come at a better time with their hopes for this season seeming to be on the verge of getting away from them. They still have a lot of work to do as they need to put together more performances like their most recent one to have a shot at the playoffs. (8%, 44%)

9^th: Queens Pioneers (1.5 – 3.5) (-2). Unfortunately the Pioneers could not keep up their momentum from the previous week and now find their season slipping away. While they still have an outside shot, they have really no margin for error, and it’s likely time for them to hold nothing back if they really want to make it (i.e. perhaps time to bring out the double GM lineups). (2%, 17%)

10^th: New York Knights (1.0 – 4.0) (-1). The Knights may have finally put themselves in a predicament from which they likely can’t escape as they will probably need a perfect second half of the season (or very close to perfect) to have any shot at the playoffs. Once again, they are likely a team which could do that, but given the overall parity in the league, it’s really not a position any team in the league can appreciate being in. I would like to make one statement about the Knights in reply to a comment made at the Boylston Blog: "When do you suppose that the qualitative rankers are going to come to terms with the fact that the Knights are not a very good team?" Of course the term "good" is somewhat relative, but I prefer to look at the Knights' poor season up to this point more as a validation of just how strong the league has become as a whole that such a strong team on paper can be doing so poorly. Even if it doesn't happen this season, I still can't see a team with such a roster not being seen as a fairly serious threat to win the League Championship at the beginning of any future season and for that reason they will always remain a good team in my book. (0%, 9%)

11^th: Miami Sharks (1.0 – 4.0) (+0). The Sharks, like the Knights, might also have put themselves in an unrecoverable situation, trailing in the playoff race by a full two games. They will also likely need a perfect second half of the season to have a shot, but again, I don’t think any team can realistically expect that. (0%, 5%)

12^th: Tennessee Tempo (0.5 – 4.5) (+0). A match this week that Tennessee should just try their best to forget about and move on to the next challenge. Though I’m sure enduring this crushing defeat isn’t a good feeling, they must remember how competitive they’ve been overall this season, prior to this match, and not let that get away from them. Though I’m virtually certain they can’t recover to make the playoffs this season, they should still look for more things to build on for the future. (0%, 0%)

Week 5 Game of the Week

This year for game of the week we have three judges, all ranking their top five games. The games are then given anywhere from one to five points, based on these rankings, and whichever game receives the most points wins the award. Also note that this year the winner each week will receive a $100 bonus prize. Our three judges are: IM Greg Shahade, NM Arun Sharma, and Jonathan Hilton. Click here for more details.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1st Place: FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1


Greg Shahade: I have decided to start judging these games without using the help of a computer engine. I found that in the past I would see a good game then Fritz would spit out some line where the other side could have improved and gained an advantage, thus discouraging me from selecting the game, despite the enjoyment I felt while watching the game live. Isn't it a shame that the mighty computer could influence my decision over so much? (After making my official selections I ran through some of the games on the computer and probably would have even made different selections. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or bad thing? Comments?)

These USCL games are played under intense pressure, and if you pose enough problems for your opponent, even if they may be unsound problems, you stand a good chance of cracking their defenses. Schroer did just that this week. I remember that during the game I liked the way that all his pieces were surrounding the enemy king, although I didn't really see a knockout blow. 31....Nd3 was a nice finishing touch, although I do admit that White probably had the better game on move 31 if he had just played something normal such as 31. Rc1. However I appreciate the style of just haphazardly throwing pieces at your opponent's king, hoping that something will work out. Even though it probably shouldn't have worked, his opponent was in time trouble, and Black's position was still quite playable even if White played correctly. After a rough first two seasons in the USCL, Schroer is coming through big time for the Cobras in 07. (1st place: 5 points)


Arun Sharma: This was quite an impressive tactical display by Schroer. One nice move was of course 28… f3! forcing Mikhailuk to jettison his e and c pawns to distract the Black Queen, but of course the likely best move was 31…Nd3! tearing open White’s King and punishing the overextending 30. h4? Though, as Greg stated, these ideas might not have been 100% sound, you have to have some amount of respect for the willingness to try them. This was a very important victory from Schroer to help the Cobras tie the Sluggers. (2nd place: 4 points)


Jonathan Hilton: Looks like again I failed to chose the Game of the Week! I did consider this game very seriously as a top contender, but I felt the game was decided prematurely by Mikhailuk’s blunder 31. h4?? I believe after the simple retreat 31. Bg2 Black shouldn’t have much, because White has such a powerful dark-squared bishop. He can regroup with Qd1-d4 and force Black to either exchange queens or enter a passive position defending g7. The position is still highly unclear, and Black has a lot of tactical tries, but unless I am missing something egregious, White, isn’t in any trouble at all. With that said though, congratulations to Schroer on a very enterprising game! I really liked Schroer’s middlegame ideas of …Ne8 and …f5, and the maneuver …Ne8-c7-a6-b4 was indeed a good find as well. I felt Black did take advantage of the holes left by White’s opening play very well, so he should take credit for that! (NR: 0 points)


Total Score of Mikhailuk vs Schroer: 9 points

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2nd Place: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs FM Marc Arnold (NY) 1-0


Greg Shahade: A nice attacking game by Molner; I have to admit I went back and forth between this game and the acutal winner for first place. It turns out that my decision made the difference between which game would be the winner. I still have no idea whether I made the right choice! In any case, the Knockouts will need play like this to keep winning matches. (2nd Place: 4 points)


Arun Sharma: Molner finally notched his first victory in the USCL and couldn’t really have found a better time to do it as the Knockouts winning this match was extremely instrumental to their playoff hopes. Speared by the typical sacrifice 18. Nd5 along with 21. Ne6+!, Molner really froze Arnold’s pieces completely (as can be discerned by Arnold’s three pushes of his h pawn) and eventually crashed through his position with 30. Re7! (3rd place: 3 points)


Jonathan Hilton: I would have ranked this very fine specimen higher, but the “smashing the Najdorf” Nc3-d5 sac theme is already getting a bit worn after last week’s Keaton Kierwa game! Najdorf players need in the League: I am calling you to regroup and take vengeance for the sake of this noble opening! With Gelfand switching to the Petroff for the World Championship, the Najdorf needs to start showing its power and fury at the League level. Don’t succumb to the Nd5 sacrifice! My full confidence is in the Najdorf players, however – they are a very innovative bunch, and I’m sure they will come up with something! I hope to be judging a convincing Najdorf win each week by the end of the League… (5th place: 1 point)


Total Score of Molner vs Arnold: 8 points

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3rd Place: IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs GM Gregory Serper (SEA) 0-1


Arun Sharma: This was the first week in awhile where I did not feel one particular game was a no-brainer pick for Game of the Week, but to me this game seems like the most logical choice. In a fairly tame looking position after 18. Rad1 (where the spectators were claiming White was better due to his extra pawn and the semi-openness of Black’s King), Serper concocted a very nice, fairly deep combination brought on by moves like 18… Re8! and 20… Re3! which left Milman no choice but to liquidate into a very bad ending which Serper expertly executed with nice technique (moves such as 28… a5! and 37…b1 (Q) with the idea of answering 38. Bb1 with 38…Rb2+!); a very smooth, impressive win by Serper. (1st place: 5 points)


Greg Shahade: This game just barely made my list. Although it seemed as if Serper completely outplayed Milman after sacrificing the pawn, it wasn't quite action packed enough for my crude tastes. With so many other violent attacking displays and strange sacrificial games being played, my heart led me to those games. (5th place: 1 point)


Jonathan Hilton: Not Ranked (NR: 0 points)


Total Score of Milman vs Serper: 6 points


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Other Considered Games (judges' scores in parenthesis)


5 points (Jon 5): GM Joel Benjamin (NJ) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 1-0

5 points (Greg 3, Jon 2): IM Ron Burnett (TN) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 0-1

4 points (Jon 4): IM Robert Hess (NY) vs IM Mikhail Zlotnikov (NJ) 1/2-1/2

3 points (Jon 3): IM John Donaldson (SF) vs FM Todd Andrews (TN) 1-0

2 points (Greg 2): NM Michael Lee (SEA) vs NM Craig Jones (CAR) 1-0

2 points (Arun 2): FM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (BAL) vs SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) 0-1

1 point (Arun 1): FM James Critelli (QNS) vs IM Richard Costigan (PHI) 0-1

Remainder of Week 5 Predictions

Hopefully I can keep up last week's pace!


New Jersey ties New York 2 – 2

Boston ties Baltimore 2 – 2

Philadelphia over Queens 2.5 – 1.5

San Francisco over Tennessee 2.5 – 1.5

Seattle over Carolina 2.5 – 1.5

Monday Night Prediction -- Week 5

This week might be a bit of letdown in terms of the star power when the Miami Sharks take on the Dallas Destiny as compared to the last two Monday Night Matches, but it definitely is of no less importance to the teams. The Sharks are already in a position where another defeat could make their playoff chances extremely slim, and the Destiny are in a fairly large battle for supremacy in the West. The boards seem to break down as follows.


Board 1: Becerra vs. Boskovic. Boskovic did surprise the fans in a similar situation, two weeks ago, in taking down Stripunsky in a very well played game by him. He did however lose a fairly tough game this last week. Becerra seems to be his usual self, doing what he’s always been doing – winning for the Sharks (though admittedly in fairly lucky though heroic fashion this last week). Becerra throughout the entire league has just been a terror to his opponents when he's had White so I think it’s easy to discern what I think on this board. (Edge MIA)



Board 2: Bartholomew takes on Martinez. Martinez is one player who really needs to get his league performance up to match the level of player he really is for the Sharks to have any chance at the postseason as he’s really been struggling since the beginning of the 2006 season. Bartholomew, though he’s only played three games in the league, has looked very solid in all of them, and so I think he has a fair advantage here. (Edge DAL)



Board 3: Moreno Roman vs. Zaremba. Moreno, like Martinez, has really struggled in the league thus far, just not being able to get on track. Zaremba, though a team member all three years, hasn’t been the most active of players for the Destiny, but has been quite solid when he’s played. I think this game is probably pretty level. (Even)



Board 4: Milisits vs. Socorregut. Two complete unknowns in the league as both are playing their very first match. It’s difficult of course to gauge this game based on that, but Milisits does have a small rating edge and the White pieces so I’ll give him a slight advantage. (Slight Edge DAL)



I’d be inclined overall to give a slight board edge to the Destiny, but as shown last week, I don’t generally decide things on that factor alone. One big thing to me this week though is that whatever kind of edge you might feel the Destiny might have on any of boards two, three, or four, I feel Miami’s edge on board one is likely larger than any of those, and based on that, I will call this a 2 – 2 tie.



(FM Ron Young predicts Dallas to win 2.5 – 1.5).

Power Rankings -- Week 4

Here is how I think things stand after Week 4.



1st: Boston Blitz (3.5 – 0.5) (+0 from last week). Boston was finally nicked, but still remains to me, the best team by far in the league. They certainly still don’t have an easy road with many tough opponents coming up, especially their next week’s battle with the Baltimore Kingfishers, a team which Boston statistically has not fared very well against in the past (though their last encounter in the 2006 regular season finale was a rather important victory for the Blitz in crushing the Kingfishers playoff hopes). The simple fact may be that Boston’s only real worry, as has been expertly observed at the Boylston Blog, is having no answer to Charbonneau, and the creative ways to solve that difficulty mentioned there might what their players should be working on in the immediate future. (Win Division: 50%, Make Playoffs: 95%)



2nd: Dallas Destiny (3.0 – 1.0) (+1). Dallas fought Carolina to a tough standstill this week and is now tied atop their division with Seattle. Although the Sluggers currently lead them in game points, it seemed to me until this last week that Dallas was the second best team in the West behind the Mechanics and with the Mechanics defeat, I think Dallas is the fairest choice to be the top dog right now in the West. This is also because they seem to be throwing a wide variety of lineups at their opposition, really making effective use of the fact that they have 4 IMs on their roster and as I stated awhile ago in my preseason predictions, I feel this kind of flexibility will pay dividends in the long term. (30%, 78%)



3rd: Seattle Sluggers (3.0 – 1.0) (+1). Since their close round one defeat at the hands of the Blitz, Seattle has really been on a complete tear steamrolling their last three opponents and definitely silencing me on one of my worries about them (i. e. their inability up to this point to defeat the other best teams). They may very well be the best team in the West at this point, but just as I did with the Destiny last week, I won’t promote them there just yet, at least until they can give me just a tad more proof. (29%, 76%)



4th: San Francisco Mechanics (2.0 – 2.0) (-2). All good things must come to an end, and I suppose given how strong the league is, the Mechanics’ winning streak ending was inevitable. Of course, that really can’t be something that they can afford to have weigh on their minds at this point as they really must focus on stepping up their play to their last season’s pace if they want to think about winning the division or even making the playoffs since Dallas, Seattle, and Carolina all seem to be making strong charges to do the same. (23%, 68%)



5th: Baltimore Kingfishers (2.5 – 1.5) (+0). Baltimore’s fairly convincing win over the Inventors this week (albeit against a weakened lineup) was a nice demonstration of why I really continue to feel they are a team which is going to make some noise. This week’s big 1 vs. 2 showdown with Boston seems likely to determine if any team is really going to make a serious challenge to challenge the Blitz for the Eastern Division Crown (and not to mention of course an important match, as all are, to the playoff hopes of the Kingfishers). (23%, 69%)



6th: Carolina Cobras (2.5 – 1.5) (+1). Carolina has now established to me that they are a very solid team all around rather than a team which mostly made their living off the bottom two boards last season. While I still am somewhat skeptical if they have the overall firepower to really win their Division or the Championship, they definitely seem like very real playoff contenders. (15%, 62%)



7th: Queens Pioneers (1.5 – 2.5) (+3). Queens broke out of the board one funk in an impressive way and just in time to give them this very important win against the Knockouts. They still have some make-up work to do from their slow early start, but if they can continue to play as they did in this last match, they certainly have it in them to beat any team in the league and to make the playoffs. (11%, 41%)



8th: Philadelphia Inventors (2.0 – 2.0) (-2). A weakened lineup likely forced Philadelphia into their second straight rough defeat. While hopefully they won’t have to play any more matches without Kudrin, the East once again is so strong that no team can afford too many slip ups, and this week’s match with the Pioneers could be huge both in the standings and for their morale. (9%, 38%)



9th: New York Knights (1.0 – 3.0) (+0). Although once again New York I’m sure really wanted to win their match this week, a draw against the best team using their probable best lineup certainly can’t be considered a bad result. Again, like Queens though, the make-up they must do to compensate for their slow start really must begin soon as the season is nearly half over. (4%, 30%)



10th: New Jersey Knockouts (1.5 – 2.5) (-2). New Jersey ran out of miracles this week with their getting outplayed on the board finally catching up to them and handing them their first defeat. The Knockouts really don’t seem to have any holes in their lineups; it just seems in every match, the opposing team is playing a little bit better than them. I’m not sure if this has to do with preparation issues or what, but the Knockouts obviously must step things up quickly in some way if they want to be in the post-season. (3%, 27%)



11th: Miami Sharks (1.0 – 3.0) (+0). The Sharks finally managed to get on the board, albeit in much closer fashion than I think they would have liked. Of course, this was only one win, and they are going to need quite a few more before they can salvage their season. Whether they can do this really depends on whether their veterans, Lugo, Martinez, and Moreno Roman can play up to the level that they generally do irl as their recent league performances are not going to get it done. (3%, 15%)



12th: Tennessee Tempo (0.5 – 3.5) (+0). I can’t imagine how difficult it must be to endure defeats of the type the Tempo have been taking every week, especially after playing well enough to draw or win most of their matches. I really don’t know why the Tempo happen to be cursed with this problem, but of course they have no chance for success until they solve it. I do see many positives in their season this year compared to last as they have really been very competitive in all of their matches; much more so than the majority of last season. While it’s likely too late to salvage their current season (given they would need a long streak of wins to turn it around, and they are just not a team with the firepower to be able to do that), hopefully they have many things they can build on for the future. (0%, 1%)

Prediction Results -- Week 4

Finally two of the three of us managed to have a good week with myself and Ron Young both predicting five correct results out of six to give us a convincing lead over last year’s clear winner Josh Gutman. Here is how it looks at this point.



Total after Week 4:



Arun Sharma (+15 This Week): 39

Ron Young (+13): 36

Josh Gutman (+2): 21





NY ties BOS 2 – 2


AS: Correct +4

RY: BOS 2.5 – 1.5 +0

JG: BOS 3 – 1 +0



QNS over NJ 2.5 – 1.5


AS/RY: Correct +3

JG: NJ 2.5 – 1.5 +0



BAL over PHI 3 – 1


AS/RY: BAL 2.5 – 1.5 +2

JG: Tie +0



MIA over TN 2.5 – 1.5


AS: MIA 3 – 1 +2

JG/RY: MIA 3.5 – 0.5 +2



DAL ties CAR 2 – 2


AS/RY: Correct +4

JG: CAR 2.5 – 1.5 +0



SEA over SF 3 – 1


RY: SEA 2.5 – 1.5 +2

AS: Tie +0

JG: SF 3 – 1 +0

Week 4 Game of the Week

This year for game of the week we have three judges, all ranking their top five games. The games are then given anywhere from one to five points, based on these rankings, and whichever game receives the most points wins the award. Also note that this year the winner each week will receive a $100 bonus prize. Our three judges are: IM Greg Shahade, NM Arun Sharma, and Jonathan Hilton. Click here for more details.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1st Place: GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1


Greg Shahade: A heroic performance from Pascal. Pascal has always owned the Boston Blitz, and this week he came up with a new and creative way to win. The game was an extremely tough affair, with both players posing each other difficult problems throughout. It seemed as if it was going to be okay for Perelshteyn once he captured Pascal's final pawn. I admit that even I was telling everyone that Pascal had virtually no chance to win. As you can see I have a fantastic understanding of chess. Anytime that I am so wrong about the evaluation of a position, and a player proves me wrong by defeating one of the toughest players in the league, you've gotta give him props. Probably with perfect play it would have been a draw, but it's very hard to play perfectly. (1st Place: 5 points)


Arun Sharma: For me the decision for first place wasn’t especially close as this game was quite well played and dramatic in basically every way it could be. With New York trailing the match 1.5 – 0.5 or 2 – 1 for the duration of the ending of this game, it seemed certain that the Knights only chance to salvage the match (and possibly their season) would be a win in this game. It appeared early in the ending that Charbonneau had a likely technically winning position but a far from easy task. Perelshteyn defended the ending very well though managing to win all of Black’s pawns which left most spectators declaring the game “dead draw” with some even commenting “This is boring why don’t they just agree to a draw already”. However their assessment was quite off as Charbonneau weaved a very nice mating net shocking the crowd (including the Commissioner who earlier had told me “He maybe has 1 chance in 100 to win this”) and pulling off a very nice save for the Knights. Though I’m sure New York really wanted to win this match, being able to draw against the Blitz, the unquestionable best team in the league at this point, shows what they are capable of. Once again, the Knights still have it in them to turn their season around, but their time is running short. (1st Place: 5 Points)


Jonathan Hilton: The reason I didn’t rank this game was that I thought White just misplayed the opening and got a very bad game. Kudos are due to Charbonneau for his winning technique of course; however, I think the cause for Perelshteyn’s loss is the fact that he opened up the queenside far too quickly in this highly positional English game. 19. c5? was a serious misjudgment. Black was simply better developed after White opened the game. Instead of 19. c5, White could have played more slowly – there were moves such as 19. e3, taking space in the center, or even 19. Nf3, trying to resolve some of White’s kingside issues by attacking Black’s lose pawns. I’m not even sure 19. gxh4!? followed by 20. Nf3 was that bad an idea. (NR: 0 points)


Total Score of Perelshteyn vs Charbonneau: 10 points

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2nd Place: FM Keaton Kiewra (DAL) vs FM Oleg Zaikov (CAR) 1-0


Jonathan Hilton: Kiewra made a bold choice with his striking 13. Nd5!? sacrifice, and the gambit paid off. Although Black certainly had many other defensive tries, I give my to prize to Kiewra for being willing to take the risks needed to outplay his opponent. Especially in the US Chess League, this kind of enterprising play reaps rich rewards more often than not! (1st Place: 5 points)


Greg Shahade: A nice attacking game from Kiewra, which led to him defeating one of the most successful players of the past two seasons in the process. It's hard to find too much wrong with any of Keaton's moves, and while Oleg didn't defend perfectly, it's very difficult to play well when being attacked so viciously, especially in a 75+30 time control. (2nd Place: 4 points)


Arun Sharma: I originally was going to give this game a 5^th place ranking, but eventually decided to leave it on the bench. While I agree that Kiewra played nearly flawlessly, his piece sac isn’t exactly unique in that sort of position and in retrospect, the game was just a little too short and one-sided for me to warrant ranking it. (NR: 0 points)


Total Score of Kiewra vs Zaikov: 9 points

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3rd Place: GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) vs GM Joel Benjamin (NJ) 1-0


Arun Sharma: Queens finally managed to erase their board one demons with this fairly dominating win by Stripunsky. Speared by the nice tactic: 16. Bg5! he neatly forced Benjamin’s King to stay in the center after which he never surrendered the initiative with mating threats and eventually expertly forced a win of decisive material. An impressive win by Stripunsky and the Queens team in finally demonstrating what I believed them to really be capable of before the season. Like New York they have put themselves in somewhat of a hole, but with more matches like this, they could definitely climb out of it. (2nd Place: 4 points)


Jonathan Hilton: Stripunsky dealt Benjamin a harsh blow in this game. I like the way he played it, luring Black’s king into the center and then opening the game. I felt he demonstrated a great deal of understanding of the middlegame and finished his opponent off with a great deal of accuracy. (2nd Place: 4 points)


Greg Shahade: I didn't rank this game. I have to say I'm quite happy that this game didn't win Game of the Week (as it would have if I ranked it 3rd or higher). Both players made a gigantic blunder only a few moves before the end of the game, that could have completely changed the result. 32. b3 was a huge error (32. Rxh7 would win immediately), and Black could have tried 32....Rxd7 33. Qe6 Kf8 34. Rxd7 Qb1+ 35. Kf2 Qf5+, liquidating to an endgame where there is still some fight left. Of course I had the benefit of using a computer to find these lines, but they really aren't all that complicated. Yes the players were in time trouble, but that's not the problem of the above two games, whose winners managed to avoid such mistakes. There is just no way, in my humble opinion, that this game deserves game of the week. Alex did play a fine game, and had control from the beginning of the game to the end against a strong opponent, but you can't have such major oversights by BOTH players only 4 moves away from the end of the game to win this prize. (NR: 0 points)


Total Score of Stripunsky vs Benjamin: 8 points


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Other Considered Games (judges' scores in parenthesis)


7 points (Greg 3, Arun 2, Jon 2): IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Sergey Erenburg (BAL) 0-1

5 points (Jon 3, Greg 2): GM Gregory Serper (SEA) vs IM Josh Friedel (SF) 1-0

3 points (Arun 3): GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) vs GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) 1/2-1/2

1 point (Greg 1): IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) vs IM Lev Milman (CAR) 0-1

1 point (Arun 1): FM John Readey (SEA) vs IM John Donaldson (SF) 0-1

1 point (Jon 1): IM Ron Burnett (TN) vs GM Julio Becerra (MIA) 0-1