Sunday, September 7, 2008
Monday Night Predictions -- Week 3
So we have two very exciting matches for Monday night this week, a rematch of last year's epic Finals Battle between Boston and Dallas which also includes a rematch of the struggle which won Game of the Year last season, along with the two current West leaders, the red hot Miami Sharks and my preseason favored San Francisco Mechanics. Let's attempt to break each match down.
Boston vs Dallas
Board 1: Sammour-Hasbun vs Kuljasevic. The rematch I alluded to above should be a very interesting encounter. In terms of who has the advantage, well Sammour-Hasbun has White, is still undefeated in the league, and got the better of last year's encounter so I think you all can guess what that adds up to me. (Edge BOS)
Board 2: Bartholomew vs Vigorito. Well both of these players have a bit less league experience to judge things by than Board 1, but rating wise it's pretty close so slight edge to the player with White. (Slight Edge DAL)
Board 3: Shmelov vs Schneider. This seems to be another fairly easy one to call to me based on the numbers. Shmelov has White, has the much better league record, and has only been defeated once in all his league play so again you know where I stand here. (Edge BOS)
Board 4: Zorigt vs Krasik. I think this one is harder to call as both of these players' league performances seem to vary a bit with both seeming capable of performing at both ends of the spectrum. Zorigt does have White and the slight rating edge though so advantage to her. (Slight Edge DAL)
So once again based on where and how big I judge the board advantages to be, it's probably easy to guess what I'm going to be picking. This slight advantage along with a probable huge desire for revenge, I think I have to pick Boston 2.5 – 1.5
San Francisco vs Miami
Board 1: Wolff vs Becerra. A tough one to call for certain. Typically I never call any GM in the league an underdog when they have White, but at the same time I also have a very hard time calling the two time MVP an underdog either so going by the middle route seems best. (Even)
Board 2: Perea vs Friedel. Perea, despite a very successful first game in the USCL, is still for the most part an unknown personality in the league. Friedel does have a fairly significant rating advantage, and based on having such little information about his opponent, that really seems to be the only thing I can base a guess on. (Slight Edge SF)
Board 3: Shankland vs Galofre. Shankland, despite a disappointing game last week, is still one of the most successful league players statistically, has a rating advantage here, and has the White pieces so I know how to call this one. (Edge SF)
Board 4: Rodriguez vs Naroditsky. In one sense, a tricky one to call as Naroditsky does have the current rating advantage. However, all other factors seem to point the other way as Rodriguez has had two very successful league games this season while Naroditsky must be trying hard to forget his last week's performance. Also, Rodriguez got the best of their last year's struggle and has the White pieces so I have to give him the advantage. (Edge MIA)
So as pretty much always with this lineup, I think statistically San Francisco has the advantage, but I think it's only a slight one, and based on Miami's current momentum, they're a hard team to bet against right now so once again I'll choose the middle route, San Francisco ties Miami 2 – 2
(FM Ron Young predicts both Boston and San Francisco to win 2.5 – 1.5).