Thursday, November 29, 2007
Finals Recap
Although I wasn’t an in-person spectator for the USCL Finals this year, I doubt there were many out there who had the grit to sit through the entire six hour marathon that it wound up being so I figured I’d give you readers my impressions of the evening as a whole. I should note that I also wrote a prediction for what I thought might happen to occur during this match and for those who are bored enough, feel free to look through it and count the number of assumptions/predictions I made there which wound up being wrong as shown by the actual match, but be warned that that number might be higher than a lot of people can count.
Prior to the match beginning, while I knew it, like nearly all USCL matches, would be a very competitive match no matter what the final score wound up being, I was mostly just hoping this Finals could be even half as exciting as last year's in terms of the number of amazing number of twists and turns that really make the League all worthwhile. I’m quite pleased that my expectations wound up being more than fulfilled as this year’s Final may well have eclipsed last year’s in terms of the length of a book it would take to tell the whole story of it. While I’m not sure what was going through all the players’ minds during the whole ordeal, I will note that many of the spectators, including myself, who had the strength to sit through the marathon that it was found the whole match a very strenuous and draining experience, and if it had that effect on the spectators, I think you can imagine what the participants were going through.
Now while there could be plenty of analysis done about the games themselves, several more qualified and probably more inclined players will probably take on that task (FM Braden Bournival has already done so, and I would expect to see more in the upcoming days) so I’ll mostly focus on what us the general consensus of what was in us spectators’ minds while it was all going down in terms of our game impressions and what seemed to be the biggest turning points/most exciting moments. I should note that while the majority of ICC kibitzers (myself included) tend to be weaker than the League players, the weight of this match had many former and current other big guns in the League making an appearance for much of the match including: IM John Bartholomew, IM Vinay Bhat, IM Jay Bonin, IM Ron Burnett, IM Igor Foygel, IM Josh Friedel, IM Robert Hess, IM Irina Krush, GM Eugene Perelshteyn, IM David Pruess, GM Alejandro Ramirez, IM Bryan Smith, IM Eli Vovsha, IM Dmitry Zilberstein, and of course the Chess.FM coverage by IM John Donaldson and IM John Watson. I’m sure I forgot or didn’t notice some of the others so we had plenty of real analysis to go with our traditionally ridiculous opinions. Often times for those who don’t watch the match live, it can be confusing why certain things wound up transpiring the way they did (as John Donaldson logically pointed out on Chess.FM as to why Vinay Bhat didn’t take an easy draw as he could have in the Wildcard round against IM Blas Lugo) since the expected results of your teammates' games while you're playing can (and should) have a profound effect on what result you're aiming for in your game. Hopefully I can fill in some of those gaps for those of you who missed watching the Finals live.
The match in the early stages seemed to be trending the way many a match tends to in the USCL – drastically in one team’s favor, in this case Dallas. After a fairly early draw on Board One, each of the other boards seemed to be leaning towards them with Kuljasevic looked to simply have a better position despite the material deficit brought on by his sacrifice, Stopa after seeming to score a huge positional loss when he played 19. dxc4 had generated some great Kingside counter play which along with Shmelov’s miserable dark squared Bishop seemed to assure him of a better position, and Zorigt just looked to have a completely dominating position with an extra pawn and her super powerful d3 Knight.
Things just never seem to work out the way they start in the League though do they? In a twist very similar to last year’s where San Francisco seemed to be dominating their match early on only to have New York tenaciously fight back, Boston quickly soon made a similar comeback. Sammour-Hasbun, in a very tricky position, which had seemed worse for him for a long time pulled off his usual tactical wizardry, finding 28. Qxe5!! which liquidated the game into a fairly simple ending which he converted with little difficulty. Shmelov, at about the same time, who had been on the brink for the previous fifteen moves having a bad position and a very low clock shocked the crowd with the nice swindle 46... Rd8! (played instantly with under thirty seconds on his clock) where before it seemed he was on the verge of losing (the natural assumption as the general consensus including by those on Chess.FM was that Black had no choice but to allow White to trade off all the pieces on e7 which would bring about a trivially winning King and Pawn ending for White), and after this nice find the game did turn into a trivial ending, but this one just happened to be a draw and suddenly Boston had a 2 – 1 lead! So once again, just like last year, after everything seemed to be going Dallas’s way early on, suddenly they were in near dire straits in a must win situation on Board Four to even stay alive.
While the Board Four encounter had been going Zorigt’s way most of the middle game with Williams having a fairly uncomfortable position along with a pawn deficit, Williams really knuckled down and did a fairly impressive job of complicating matters playing some great defense and not allowing Zorigt many easy paths to victory. After Zorigt sacked the exchange what the correct evaluation of the position was seemed very unclear with Black having a powerful d-pawn, but White’s defenses seeming very tough to crack, and along with Black’s ill placed f6 Rook, it seemed it would be very hard for Black to gain the activity she’d need to garner the full point. However, time pressure can often cause strange things to occur, and just when it seemed that White had completely consolidated and might even have had the better position, in mutual time pressure, he finally slipped up after some great defense in allowing 48... Qb5! Even after that, it still didn’t look very easy for Black to win (if it was even winning at all), but perhaps flustered from his earlier mistake, White then committed a fatal one with 50. Rxf7? after which Black converted with little difficulty to send the match to the tiebreaker.
As I mentioned in my prediction, from a spectator’s point of view the blitz tiebreaker was obviously the most exciting way for the match to be decided, but many in the crowd voiced there general dissatisfaction towards this system from the players' perspective being used to decide the Championship due to the inherent random nature of it. While I agree it’s not the ideal way to do things, I definitely feel giving either team draw odds based on whatever factor isn’t a good idea and overtime systems for sporting events in general (whether you mean the NFL, NBA, or whatever) also have their many flaws and many vocal detractors to. The simple fact is that there just really is no perfect way to decide things when a match of any kind winds up tied at the end of regulation, and like most things everyone will have a different opinion about the best way to resolve it, and it's pretty much a matter of opinion as to what's best.
Boston got off to a quick start with Williams avenging his regulation match in fairly crushing fashion with Zorigt playing an inaccurate opening which Williams exploited with little trouble. The game between Stopa and Williams was quite a messy affair with Stopa seeming to be nurturing a small edge for most of the game until Williams uncorked the surprising 30... Nhf4?! While most people might not be a huge fan of trying something that appears so dangerous in a team event, I personally think you have to have a lot of respect for someone who’s willing to do so when the stakes are so high, and given Williams was out rated, had the Black pieces, and was doing this in a blitz game, it may well have been the best try (and I’m not just saying that because it happened to work out favorably). Williams soon found the incredible follow-up blow 36... Rf3!! which completely turned the tide into giving him a flat out winning position. However, once again strange things can happen in blitz chess as after some missed opportunities by Williams, Stopa really bore down and with some nice defense turned the game around again and managed to score the victory.
Shmelov stepped in for Williams, and we once again were treated to a struggle with some ridiculous turnarounds as Stopa seemed to get the best out of the opening with a Benko type position where he’d recovered the sacrificed pawn -- generally a sign that Black has the superior position. But then came the shocking 19... e5? (which I haven’t gotten confirmation was a mouse slip but the consensus seemed to be that it must have been) that turned the game completely upside down. Shmelov capitalized on this quite well just applying pressure to the weaknesses garnered by this, winning a pawn to get into what looked to be a fairly simple winning ending. Once again though, Stopa with the help of a crucial mistake, this time 39. Kf2?, managed to turn the game back around just as he had the last and soon had the better ending himself which he didn’t let slip from his grasp.
So then what most of the crowd had been waiting for came to fruition with Sammour-Hasbun stepping in for Shmelov. He didn’t disappoint expectations early on slowly but surely building up a better and better position. While Black seemed to be obviously better prior to losing his e-pawn, it still seemed anything but easy to really capitalize as nice as his pieces seemed to look. After the e-pawn fell the position seemed very unclear and like Sammour-Hasbun’s games often do, developed into something of a tactical melee where both sides missed some chances (it’s hard with ten seconds on your clock though even for a tactical wizard like Sammour-Hasbun) and again came down to an ending which rarely (at least compared to his two previous tiebreak games) Stopa had the better of. However, as Irina Krush wisely pointed out during the game "Stopa’s position isn’t bad enough where he can win" which turned out to be exactly right as Sammour-Hasbun managed to hold the balance.
I think it was at this moment that most of the crowd began to really realize that the Dallas team had a more than a minor shot to pull this match out as the mood prior to this as had been mentioned on many an occasion was "All of this is irrelevant, once Boston gets to Sammour-Hasbun and Christiansen they will tear Dallas up." But with one big gun out of the way suddenly the road to victory was much clearer: Just one blitz game victory against Christiansen. It sounds so easy doesn’t it? I doubt somehow that the Dallas team was thinking as such though as Christiansen hadn’t lost a game yet in the season (and once again not lost a single game in three seasons with the Black pieces) and like Sammour-Hasbun is known for his amazing blitz prowess.
The first encounter between Christiansen and Kuljasevic seemed to be a fairly up and down affair with both sides seemingly better at various stages which settled into a fairly peaceful draw. The second game was much trickier with Christiansen getting the better out of the opening with a menacing force aimed at Kuljasevic’s King and with the nice 26... Rxf3!, looked to be heading to victory. As usual though, it didn’t exactly turn out quite that simply with Kuljasevic finding the very dangerous looking 30. Rb4! after which suddenly Black is treading on thin ice even with his extra pawn. The game then (as every game tiebreak before had) went into a tough ending with Black having an extra pawn, but White having some nice pressure. I’m not really certain where the turning point in the ending really was, but Christiansen conducted the ending quite well and won cleanly.
Thus we wound up in almost the same situation as last year with Christiansen against Boskovic. Both teams down to their last player, in one corner a known amazing blitz player and in the other a player whose blitz prowess is much more in question. Despite the seeming inequity of the situation, the underdog prevailed last year and this year would be no different with the underdog pulling through for his team at the most important moment winning a game, which like every other tiebreak game, contained a tricky ending and with a very rare mistake from Christiansen, Boskovic brought the win and title of USCL Champions to the Dallas Destiny!
So in a nutshell that’s what this evening seemed to contain (though a rather large shell based on how long I think I’ve been writing this). Hearty congrats should go out to both teams, they both played great seasons and a great Final, and it’s almost a shame that not both of them could be the Champions as both of them certainly did play like ones all season. But additional kudos to the Dallas Destiny for appearing to defy the odds on more than one occasion in this match to score a well deserved Championship. I’ll now close with some of my personal thoughts on the Finals match and this season in general.
One thing that seemed to be a common misconception (at least in my opinion) amongst the kibitzers about the blitz tiebreaker was that the lower boards would really play no role in determining the Champion at that stage. While of course the last played game is very unlikely to be decided with any of the lower boards directly participating, I think the way the tiebreaker went down in this situation was evidence of just how important all of the games in the tiebreaker really are and that the lower boards can really play an enormous role in the final outcome. With no one debating the blitz prowess of Sammour-Hasbun and Christiansen, the simple fact is anything can really happen in a blitz game, and the more cracks you get at a person, obviously the more chances you have to pull off that one upset, and I think that’s precisely what happened here. With Stopa knocking out both the lower boards of Boston and giving them the three versus two edge, I think at that stage it should be clear how much Dallas’s chances overall had improved. Also, while I, like most of the audience, suspected Sammour-Hasbun might run through the entire Dallas team, the expectations on him were probably a bit unfair. Obviously, as amazing a blitz player as Sammour-Hasbun is, Stopa has shown on more than one occasion how strong a player he is in the League especially when he has the White pieces and for Sammour-Hasbun to be thrust into a situation like that, having the Black pieces against such a strong player, where the fans were going to view even a draw as a failure by him is really not a reasonable burden to put on anyone. Also, the simple fact is Christiansen ended up having to play three blitz games while it was Boskovic’s first (once again due to the way things had transpired on the lower boards), and it seems very likely that the fatigue caused by both that and the time that the match ended (2:00 am!) was a factor in causing the fatal error of the last game which decided the Championship.
Overall, I’m very pleased the way this season of the League turned out, and just like last year this Finals match, which I’m sure none of us will soon forget, was a great way to top it off. Just as Greg Shahade predicted at the end of last season, the League was better in basically every way this year, and I can only hope that we can pull off a similar feat next year.
I want to end by thanking everyone who took the time to play in or follow the League this year. Obviously each one of you is a big part of why the League has been able to progress to where it's at now, and when I see how excited people get because of it (as I saw on more than a few occasions yesterday and many a time throughout the season), that’s really what makes all of the work we put in to make it happen worthwhile. I hope you all keep up with the League during the off season (especially with the Game of the Year Contest and don’t forget to nominate your Wildcard games there!, along with the announcement of the two expansion teams), and I’ll see you all next August for the 2008 Season!
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Finals Prediction
So Greg Shahade has gotten on my case for being lazy and not doing in-depth predictions for the first two playoff rounds. While my initial instinct, as always, was to just threaten to quit if he didn't get off my back, if I were to do so at this stage I might not get paid for this season and given I’ve put in at least twice as many hours of work as him this season (the guy who calls himself the commissioner hah!) that really would be a tragedy so I suppose I’ll oblige for the finals (even though at this point it's impossible for me to win the prediction contest).
We have the Boston Blitz taking on the Dallas Destiny. Aside from the fact that one of these teams is from the East the other from the West, these teams really could not be different in their makeup. Boston uses underrated players on the bottom two boards to stack the top two boards having virtually two players at the rating cap while Dallas is one of only three teams in the league without a GM, instead relying on the ability to use a 2400+ on Board Three. Also, as has been stated, Boston is almost certainly the most vocal team on the league with their numerous blog sites and video displays while Dallas is likely among the most reserved with almost none of those intangibles. In addition, Boston has been one of the favored teams from the league's inception (and especially favored this season) with their top heavy lineups, and they showed why last season with their 8 – 2 regular season along with repeating as division winners this year. Dallas on the other hand is the reverse to a large degree as they struggled mightily in their first season along with doing so at the beginning of last season before finally hitting their groove (and two players I think largely responsible for that turn around will be competing in the upcoming Finals, Kuljasevic and Stopa). I don’t think most people counted Dallas amongst the favorites this year though (likely since they don’t have any of the “big names” on their lineups like most other teams).
So we have two very different teams who will end up battling, and it seems the general consensus is advantage Boston, but as has been pointed out, the historical makeup of the last two league winners, Baltimore and San Francisco does seem to bode well for Dallas if history is any indicator and as always I would never be quick to jump to any conclusions. Let’s take a look at each board.
Board 1: IM Drasko Boskovic vs GM Larry Christiansen. Boskovic just knocked off league MVP Becerra in dramatic fashion and along with his very nice early season win against Stripunsky, it’s obvious he’s not a player to be underestimated. His results when he’s had White haven’t been quite as impressive (perhaps part of the reason why Boston chose Black for this match), and interestingly Christiansen hasn’t lost a single game with the Black pieces in all three seasons of the league! In addition, Christiansen hasn’t lost any games this season in nine tries despite facing some ridiculously tough competition (by far the hardest competition anyone in the league has faced this year I think, with his best games probably coming against Ibragimov and versus Wolff). I think I have to give him a slight advantage based on those facts. (Slight Edge BOS)
Board 2: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic. As has been mentioned, these two are both having ridiculously strong seasons and will be playing for more than simply being USCL Champions (Board Two All Star, Highest Performance Rating, and a myriad of other things). Although having virtually the same record, stylistically they seem to be very different with Sammour getting into exciting tactical slugfests (like his last week’s Semifinal win against Charbonneau) with Kuljasevic’s victories for the most part seeming to stem from grinding his opponents down in a fairly methodical way (with the notable exception of his impressive win over Tangborn which perhaps should have won Game of the Week). What will happen when the styles of these two players collide? I really am not sure, but I’ll give the advantage to the one with the White pieces. (Slight Edge BOS)
Board 3: IM Jacek Stopa vs NM Denys Shmelov. This board, as mentioned, has been Dallas’s trump this season, and they will almost certainly need a good result here if they want to win this match. Stopa, a Board Two All Star last season, is obviously not a person any Board Three can enjoy sitting down against especially with the Black pieces. Although he hasn’t been quite as active this year as last, he’s still played some impressive games (the best of which I would venture to be his Week 1 win over Bereolos). He’s also probably not the easiest of opponents to prepare for as he’s showcased all of the opening moves 1. e4, 1. d4, 1. Nc3, and 1. Nf3 in his USCL repertoire. Shmelov, the most active player in the league this season, definitely has been no slouch either with his +3 score and definitely seems like someone who will be far from easy to beat with his ultra solid style. He’s also played some great games this year and though I’m not sure which was best, his brutally efficient (albeit somewhat short) victory against Yeager definitely springs to mind. Overall though, given how strong Stopa has seemed to be with the White pieces in his two seasons, I have to give him an advantage. (Edge DAL)
Board 4: NM Chris Williams vs WFM Bayaraa Zorigt. Williams sporting a 6 – 2 record this season is obviously quite a force to be reckoned with on Board Four (especially with White). His strength seems to be his great ability to often tactically outplay his opponents in tricky middlegame positions. His openings have looked a bit shaky at times, but I assume given what is at stake this match, he’ll take great care not to allow that to happen this week. I think his best game of the year likely was his win against Wilson really demolishing a player who’s definitely been amongst the best Board Fours in the league all three seasons. Zorigt seems like a trickier player to nail down as her league games have seemed very up and down. She seems to play well from behind (as witnessed by her first week’s nice save against Wheeler), but she’s also had some shaky moments committing some big oversights to cost herself winning positions. Overall, Williams has just looked too strong on the whole this season and while if Zorigt can really play her best game she has a good shot to score, but Williams has to have the edge here. (Edge BOS)
Over the board, I do agree with most that Boston has the edge (especially considering that if you go by the players’ August ratings, Boston’s team averages 2469 while Dallas is much lower at 2413). Naturally, it never comes down to just that simple fact when dealing with the USCL, but one other thing, which isn’t a factor in other league matches, can also come into play here: the blitz tiebreaker. While this, just like the overall match, can never be a certain result (I don’t think anyone will soon forget the epic battle which ended last season where I venture most would have thought New York had a big edge there due to Charbonneau’s blitz prowess). However, Boston really has two big guns in that regard as both Christiansen and Sammour-Hasbun are known to be phenomenal speed players, and I just don’t know if anyone on the Dallas roster can really match up with them in that category. While from a spectator’s point of view, I really wouldn’t mind seeing the match being decided in that fashion again, something inside me tells me it won’t happen this year. I think Boston wins 2.5 – 1.5.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Semifinals Game of the Week
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st Place: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1
Greg Shahade: This was a no brainer. An exciting and action packed game in which the League MVP loses for the first time since last season. On top of it all it seemed relatively well played, given the circumstances (time trouble issues, the complexity of the position, and so forth). I am not even going to venture to think about what was going on in Mr. Sharma's head, when he decided to rank this game in 2nd place. Maybe he was bitter over Boskovic eschewing a chance at the first legitimate under-promotion in league history? (1st place: 2 points)
Jonathan Hilton: I’m predicting that all three judges will pick this as Game of the Week, hands down. League MVP Julio Becerra goes down in a spectacular struggle after Boskovic sacrificed an exchange for strong compensation. I have to say I was very impressed with White’s position after move 29, and I felt he was going to create strong threats on the queenside. It is possible that by taking the exchange with the c4-c5 push he cashed in his chips too early, but it was hard to find any other way to proceed! If White takes too much time preparing the push by defending d5 first, Black’s pawns will start rolling.
After Becerra took the exchange, the game was an absolute slugfest. My gut feeling was that White might be able to hold on, but it is hard to say exactly where things went wrong. White fought very hard to promote his own c-pawn and wound up letting up his guard on Black’s two passers, so an alternative approach trying to blockade Black’s pawns might have been better. However, by that point in time, Becerra surely knew that he needed to win at all costs to try to pull his team even with Dallas. Congratulations to IM Boskovic! (1st place: 2 points)
Arun Sharma: Without a doubt the most exciting game of the Semifinals with it seemingly taking so many turns in to who seemed to be winning along with containing so many interesting tactical moments. I would have ranked this game first without question but for the facts that it ended somewhat anticlimactically with the overall match result having been decided long before this game ended, and it also seemed unlikely to me that Becerra would have lost the game had he not seemingly gone all out to win it earlier, probably due to the match situation. In reference to Mr. Shahade's comment about me not ranking this game first, I should note that a certain Game of the Week judge has gone on record making statements like "I've made terrible picks in at least half the weeks in this contest" along with "Who cares about quality just worry about fun sacrifices", and I'll give you readers a hint -- that judge wasn't me! (2nd place: 1 point)
Total Score of Becerra vs Boskovic: 5 points
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd Place: IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) vs IM Blas Lugo (MIA) 1-0
Arun Sharma: Although it doesn't greatly surprise me that this game didn't end up winning since it wasn't the most exciting of affairs, I'm quite surprised that neither of the other two judges ended up ranking it. Since we have a rather limited selection of games each playoff week, the fact that this was really the only game which I felt was really a very clean game, very well played by Kuljasevic who just won nicely and conducted the endgame flawlessly makes me think it definitely deserved more consideration then it ended up getting. The fact that it was really the only game which seemed without any major errors and that it was the win that clinched the match for the Destiny compelled me to give this game the top ranking. (1st Place: 2 points)
Greg Shahade: Quite honestly, I felt that it was so obvious that Boskovic's game was going to win, that I didn't really worry much about which game I'd rank 2nd . I agree with Arun that Kuljasevic's game was very well played by the White pieces, but whatever, Boskovic's game clearly deserved the award. This isn't to say he played better, but it was surely a much more entertaining game and still well played. (NR: 0 points)
Jonathan Hilton: Not Ranked (NR: 0 points)
Total Score of Kuljasevic vs Lugo: 2 points
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Considered Games (judges' scores in parenthesis)
1 point (Greg 1): NM Francisco Guadalupe II (DAL) vs Luis Barredo (MIA) 1-0
1 point (Jon 1): IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Denys Shmelov (BOS) 1-0
Monday, November 19, 2007
Game of the Year Contest
As this season of the League is nearing its conclusion, it's not too early to start thinking about the off-season activities that will take place, the most important of which will definitely be the Game of the Year Contest. The scoring for this contest will work very similarly to last year's contest with some important changes as well:
(1) There will be five brand new judges for Game of the Year (i.e. none of the three Game of the Week judges Jonathan Hilton, Greg Shahade, or myself will be voters) to ensure all of the judges will have a fresh and unbiased view towards each game in the contest.
(2) The prizes for this contest will be much better than last year's with the top five games receiving prizes (as compared to the top three last year) and there will also be $2000 in prizes this season with $1000 going to the top game.
and most importantly (at least from the perspective of my main motivation for writing this article)
(3) Instead of there being only the thirteen Game of the Weeks in this contest, there will be also be seven additional "Wildcard" games chosen by the three Game of the Week judges to be in the contest with each of us picking two of them and then conferring on the last one.
In reference to (3), I know there have been several weeks where many people have disagreed with our selection for Game of the Week. So all of you who think some game really deserved more credit than it happened to actually receive, let us know here! Please post in the comments section any and all opinions you might have about what game (s) you think should definitely be Wildcards in this contest. The selections for these Wildcard games will begin soon so if you want to nominate any game, now is the time to do so!
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Semifinal Predictions
Even though my chance of winning this prediction contest is virtually nil at this point, Greg Shahade insists that there are some out there who might care what I think will happen so here's my guess.
Boston ties New York 2 – 2 (Boston advances)
Dallas over Miami 2.5 – 1.5
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Dallas Rating Exception
The Dallas vs Miami match was moved at Miami's request and with Dallas's permission because GM Julio Becerra and IM Blas Lugo are competing in the SPICE International Tournament at Texas Tech University during the originally scheduled Semifinal date. Due to the change of date the player Dallas had planned to use on Board 4, WFM Bayaraa Zorigt, became unavailable to play on the new date, not allowing Dallas to use the lineup they had hoped to use for this match, at no fault of their own.
In consideration for the fact that Dallas was willing to move the date of the match, Miami allowed them to replace Zorigt with Guadalupe, who is only 20 points higher rated than Zorigt. This lineup is illegal under the normal rules though so we wanted to make sure that everyone understood why it was allowed in this special circumstance. Thanks to both teams for their flexibility, and we look forward to an exciting match!
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Wildcard Game of the Week
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st Place: FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0
Arun Sharma: Even if the most surprising moves in this game were a result of home preparation, that really doesn't diminish how beautiful a game this was . It's quite rare to see moves as exquisite as 22. Bh6!! in the league and along with the efficient 36. Nc5! to end the game, this was clearly the best game of the week to me. The second huge win from Martinez in succession to lead the surprising Sharks into the Semifinals. Whether they can continue with this shocking run could well be determined by whether Martinez can put forth more performances like this. (1st place: 2 points)
Greg Shahade: A fantastic effort from Martinez. The opening phase of the game was brilliant and was possibly the best job of opening preparation in the history of the USCL. 22. Bh6! was an incredible and beautiful novelty that gave Zilberstein almost no fighting chances right from the start. On top of everything the entire game contained many short and sweet tactical blows. Martinez had a rocky early season, but he is really stepping it up lately. (1st place: 2 points)
Jonathan Hilton: A very nice piece of home preparation! This variation of the Ruy Lopez, in which Black sacrifices the pawn on b5, has been quite popular at high levels lately, and Martinez was well-researched going into this game. The tactics to conclude the game, such as 29. Bxg7+ and 36. Nc5, give this game a touch of class. (2nd place: 1 point)
Total Score of Martinez vs Zilberstein: 5 points
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd Place: IM Irina Krush (NY) vs IM Bryan Smith (PHI) 1-0
Jonathan Hilton: I really do think this was the most impressive victory this week – Krush outplayed her opponent in all three stages of the game. I particularly liked the way she activated her Rook in the middlegame with Rg1-g6-e6 and also thought she displayed impressive technique in transforming her advantage to a winning endgame. The 3.5 - 0.5 win of New York is truly astounding! (1st Place: 2 points)
Arun Sharma: This was just a very smooth performance from Krush, winning in the style she often displays in the league; not with super flashy moves, just good, crisp technique via building slowly but surely on a small opening advantage and eventually forcing her opponent to succumb. (2nd place: 1 point)
Greg Shahade: While Krush played well, it seemed that her technique at the end wasn't perfect (it seemed as if she missed a few easier wins with moves like Bc6 when all of Black's pieces were tied up) whereas when Zenyuk got her winning position she won quite handily, so because of that I didn't rank this game. (NR: 0 points)
Total Score of Krush vs Smith: 3 points
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Considered Games (judges' scores in parenthesis)
1 point (Greg 1): WFM Iryna Zenyuk (NY) vs NM Elvin Wilson (PHI) 1-0
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Wildcard Predictions
Despite the percentages I gave for what I believed to be each team's chances to advance, I'm not necessarily going to stick with those for the prediction contest as I didn't know the lineups for the teams when writing that plus sometimes it's fun to cheer on a team you believe to be an underdog. Also, given my deficit in the contest at this point some controversial picks might not hurt if I want to maintain any shot at winning. Here's my guess for how the Wildcard Round will go.
New York over Philadelphia 2.5 – 1.5
San Francisco over Miami 2.5 – 1.5
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Playoff Preview
So as this new chapter of this season of the USCL is about to get underway (ie the playoffs), it’s once again time for me to try to give everyone some insight into what I think might take place. Despite the fact that more than a few of my previous predictions have been ridiculed by some (even by myself, as evidenced by my need to apologize to a team for one such terrible prediction), I feel the need to point out the fair accuracy of my preseason predictions (having five of six playoff teams correct and in the West where I had the finishing order of the teams nearly exactly correct). So it may be that I actually do have some idea of what might happen (or I could just be a lucky idiot) and thus here goes.
East:
Wildcard: Philadelphia vs New York
This is a tricky matchup. In one sense, everything seems to favor Philadelphia as they had the better regular season record, swept the season series between these two teams, and have draw odds in the upcoming match. But of course things are just never that simple in the USCL as more than one time teams have overcome similar such seeming inequities (Miami’s upset of San Francisco in the 2005 Semifinals, and New York’s upset of Boston in the 2006 Semifinals just to name a couple). Based on pure statistics (ie ratings) New York is unquestionably the stronger team though, and the Knights really have momentum on their side as they seemed to be incredible long shots to even make the postseason but ended on a 4 – 1 run to make it. GM Hikaru Nakamura has been tearing up Europe the past few weeks which has caused him to miss the last two weeks of the regular season, but fortunately his team was able to qualify without him, and now I'm sure they hope he is back from Europe and ready to play. As for lineups, I would definitely expect New York to use Nakamura on Board 1 (if he's available) and Zenyuk on Board 4 with Boards 2 and 3 being a bit more unclear as I could see them using any of these combinations: Charbonneau + Bonin, Krush + Hess, or Krush + Bonin while Philadelphia I’m almost sure will use Kudrin + Smith + Costigan with the only uncertainty whether they use Wilson or Yeager on 4. Whichever choices the teams make in this regard, I think Philadelphia clearly has to have an edge based on their sweeping the season series plus the draw odds. I’m not willing to make it a very large one based on New York’s resilience and current momentum though. Philadelphia advances 55%.
Semifinals: Boston vs Philadelphia/New York
Boston seems like a team which is a bit easier to nail down as to what lineup they might happen to use based on the amount each player has played in the regular season. I would definitely expect to see Christiansen on 1, Shmelov on 3, and Williams on 4 with the only main question being whether Perelshteyn or Sammour-Hasbun ends up manning 2. Whichever choice they make there though if they are up against Philadelphia I definitely like their chances as they seem to match up well against Philadelphia’s lineups (as evidenced by their sweeping the season series) whereas against New York it seems very close to even on all boards. Boston does have draw odds on their side though whichever team they happen to play so my guess would be: Boston advances against Philadelphia 70%, and Boston advances against New York 60%.
So based on those estimations, each team’s chances to make the finals from the East are about:
Boston: 65%
New York: 18%
Philadelphia: 17%
West:
Wildcard: Miami vs San Francisco
Unlike the Wildcard in the other Division, in this one, the winner of the season series was the lower ranked team as Miami won the only regular season meeting between these two. This match I’m sure will have several of the Mechanics players thinking back to the tough defeat they suffered in this same situation back in the 2005 Semifinals as there are more than a few players still on both teams who took part in that battle. As for lineups, for Miami I’m fairly certain they will use Becerra on 1 and Barredo on 4, but 2 and 3 are a little unclear as I could see them using any combination of Lugo, Martinez, Moreno Roman, and Espino. San Francisco is equally unclear as other than them using Bhat on 2, to me nothing else is really certain as I could see Wolff or Friedel manning 1, Zilberstein, Pruess, or Donaldson manning 3, and Naroditsky or Young manning 4. Whatever happens though, I think Miami will have a definite edge on 1 (Becerra with White) while I prefer the Mechanics on 2 and 3 with 4 being close. With draw odds, San Francisco advances 67% here.
Semifinals: Dallas vs San Francisco/Miami
If Dallas has any weakness it may be that their lineup for this match might be a bit easier to guess than their opponents’ as I would be rather surprised if they didn’t show up bearing Boskovic + Kuljasevic + Stopa + Zorigt. Although Bartholomew is certainly capable of filling one of the top two spots if needed, given Boskovic handled the top board nine times out of ten in the regular season and that Kuljasevic is really the unsung hero of the Dallas team this season with his 5.5/6 record, this lineup seems by far the most likely. Should the Destiny take on the Sharks, I forsee a matchup very similar to Miami’s in the Wildcard, one where the Sharks are favored on 1 but underdogs on 2 and 3 with 4 being unclear. On the other hand, should the Destiny take on the Mechanics, like the other potential Semifinal (Boston vs New York), it seems likely to be a match where neither side has much of an edge anywhere, but I must take note that in that near exact situation in the regular season finale, the Mechanics triumphed. However, having draw odds from the start is a far different situation psychologically and based on all the factors I think Dallas advances against Miami 67%, and Dallas advances against San Francisco 58%.
So each teams’ approximate chances to be in the Finals from the West are:
Dallas: 61%
San Francisco: 28%
Miami: 11%
Finals:
Now of course it’s rather difficult for me to make any predictions about what might happen here (given that I, you know, don’t even know which teams will be playing in the Finals) so I’ll just leave you with some estimations of what I think each team’s chances of winning the League at this point are.
Boston: 34%
Dallas: 28%
San Francisco: 16%
New York: 11%
Philadelphia: 7%
Miami: 4%
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Prediction Results -- Week 10
A reasonable week for all of us I suppose, but unfortunately with only five matches remaining in the season, my chances to catch Ron Young were dealt a fairly serious blow, and it will take some superb playoff predictions from me (or some superbly bad ones from him) to level the score. Here’s the way it looks.
Total after Regular Season:
Ron Young (+11 This Week): 91
Arun Sharma (+9): 85
Josh Gutman (+6): 67
BOS over PHI 2.5 – 1.5
AS/RY: Correct +3
JG: BOS 3 – 1 +2
QNS over BAL 3 – 1
JG/RY: QNS 2.5 – 1.5 +2
AS: Tie +0
NY over NJ 2.5 – 1.5
AS: Correct +3
RY: NJ 2.5 – 1.5 +0
JG: NJ 3 – 1 +0
CAR over TN 2.5 – 1.5
JG: Tie +0
AS/RY: TN 3 – 1 +0
SF over DAL 2.5 – 1.5
AS/RY: Correct +3
JG: SF 3 – 1 +2
MIA over SEA 2.5 – 1.5
RY: Correct +3
JG/AS: SEA 2.5 – 1.5 +0
Week 10 Game of the Week
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st Place: IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0
Arun Sharma: Once again how quickly fortunes can change in the Game of the Week arena as Molner went to being the victory last week to the victim this week! I really feel when considering all the circumstances (ie the enormous playoff implications) that this is the best choice for Game of the Week as Bonin played a very good game topped off with quite a surprising piece sacrifice which he expertly executed to force near immediate resignation. A gigantic win from Bonin to propel New York into the playoffs, and after a tough 2006 season he has come up huge for the Knights on several occasions in 2007 and may well be called upon to do the same in the playoffs. (1st place: 5 points)
Jonathan Hilton: Bonin's best game of the year, and nearly a miniature at that! 18. Nxf7! was a hammer-blow. I love Bonin's unique approach to the opening and his creative exploitation of Molner's gambit� of the b5 pawn as Bonin managed to take Molner out of his usual Benko Gambit territory, something that does not come easily, because Molner's Benko Gambit is so well-prepared. (2nd place: 4 points)
Greg Shahade: I'm happy that this game won. Jay has been a great supporter of the Knights and it's only fitting that he should win a game to send New York to the playoffs. Most of all I'm happy that this game won despite my poor judging job as I really regret the pick I made for first place. I won't be too hard on myself however, as we have to judge 24 games within 24 hours, and we all try our best! (3rd place: 3 points)
Total Score of Bonin vs Molner: 12 points
Bonin - Molner
Jay went for the glory here with 18. Nxf7!! Rxf7 19. Nxd6 Rf8 20. Rb8, leading to a devastating bind that Molner was unable to escape from.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd Place: IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0
Jonathan Hilton: Of the games critical to match results, this is absolutely the best one of the week, and there is no comparison. Zilberstein's attack was creative, clean, and timely, helping San Francisco prove they have what it takes to defeat Dallas in the playoffs. The Queen maneuver which began on move sixteen Qe2-e4-g4 was cleverly conceived, and 30. Nd6! effectively ended the game. (1st Place: 5 points)
Arun Sharma: Just a very dominating win from Zilberstein unleashing a brutal attack against Bartholomew's King and finishing the game off nicely with some cute tactics like 34. Qxc4! and 45. Qxb8! A great performance from Zilberstein to cement the Mechanics having draw odds in the Wildcard and sending a message to the Destiny that they will need to be on their toes in the Semifinals even though they have draw odds. (2nd place: 4 points)
Greg Shahade: Despite looking at this game a few times it just didn't stand out to me. I agree that Dmitry played well, but what can I say, it just didn't strike me. And as a judge, if a game doesn't jump out at me somehow, I probably shouldn't give it Game of the Week. (NR: 0 points)
Total Score of Zilberstein vs Bartholomew: 9 points
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd Place: GM Patrick Wolff (SF) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 1-0
Greg Shahade: Bad selection by me. I had already locked this game in, and I wanted to change my mind and lower it to 3rd or even 4th place. At first I thought it was a textbook example of how to handle the Sheveginanaingan defense but after reexamining the game I felt like taking with the knight on d5 instead of the Queen gave Black quite good defensive chances. Also the game wasn't really that exciting. I only gave it the first place ranking because I thought that it was very well played by White and because I have a lot of personal history in these types of openings. I still think that White played well but not enough to warrant my placing. Fortunately Hilton and Sharma bailed me out and gave the prize to a more deserving game. I do think that Bryan Smith played a very nice and clear game which should have been ranked higher though. (1st place: 5 points)
Jonathan Hilton: The only game I considered to be a threat to Zilberstein vs Bartholomew featured a stunning premature resignation from Boskovic. 33... Rg6!, in the final position, might have allowed Black to escape. After 34. Qxg6, 34. hxg6 35. Bxe6 exf4 36. Bxf7, White is somewhat better, but Black has some defensive resources at his disposal. Otherwise, quite a fantastic game, and an exciting struggle at that! (3rd place: 3 points)
Arun Sharma: While I really liked Wolff's creative play in this game, the reason I didn't end up ranking this game was mainly that I wasn't completely convinced that his ideas were truly sound as it seemed like Boskovic had some better chances to defend like 24... Nxd5 and as Jonathan pointed out, 33... Rg6. I could well be wrong in that assessment as I, like Greg, do not use a computer to analyze the games, and my amateurish impressions obviously can't compete with either of the two players actually playing the game, but that was the feel I got so I left this game on the sidelines. (NR: 0 points)
Total Score of Wolff vs Boskovic: 8 points
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Considered Games (judges' scores in parenthesis)
5 points (Greg 4, Arun 1): IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0
4 points (Jon 2, Greg 2): IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) vs IM Vinay Bhat (SF) 1-0
3 points (Arun 3): FM Loren Schmidt (SEA) vs FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) 0-1
2 points (Arun 2): IM Mikhail Zlotnikov (NJ) vs IM Irina Krush (NY) 0-1
1 point (Jon 1): Luis Barredo (MIA) vs NM Michael Lee (SEA) 1-0
1 point (Greg 1): NM Parker Zhao (QNS) vs WGM Katerina Rohonyan (BAL) 1-0
Monday, October 29, 2007
Week 10 Predictions
The last major opportunity to close Ron Young's lead as after this there are only five playoff matches to predict!
Boston over Philadelphia 2.5 – 1.5
Queens ties Baltimore 2 – 2
New York over New Jersey 2.5 – 1.5
Tennessee over Carolina 3 – 1
San Francisco over Dallas 2.5 – 1.5
Seattle over Miami 2.5 – 1.5
Power Rankings -- Week 9
So only one week remains in the regular season, but the way things stand, it’s quite certain that the last week will contain plenty of excitement as virtually the only thing truly assured is that Dallas will win their division, with all other spots still quite undecided. We’re quite fortunate that I (yes me, what a shock that I did all the work in that regard like I do for everything, rather than our esteemed commissioner) was able to schedule matches which will wind up being huge in Boston vs. Philadelphia, New York vs. New Jersey, and Miami vs. Seattle. As it’s postseason or bust time, these rankings will be based nearly entirely upon each team's chances in that regard.
1st:
2nd:
3rd:
4th: San Francsico Mechanics (5.0 – 4.0) (+2). The defending champions, with another smooth win, have managed to assure they won’t repeat the unfortunate happening that fell upon their predecessors, the Kingfishers, in the year after they won the Championship. Though they won’t three-peat as division winners, they have a very good shot to get themselves draw odds in the Wildcard (which is a virtual lock with a draw) and though they’ll have to face draw odds this time rather than have them in the Semifinals (should they reach them), it does seem natural that everyone needs to be playing from behind at some point. (0%, 100%)
5th:
6th:
7th:
8th:
9th:
10th: Queens Pioneers (3.5 – 5.5) (+1). Unfortunately, Queens will not be the Expansion Team turned Champions in their first season. It’s too bad that Queens really couldn’t seem to find a way to play consistently as they really have such a strong lineup. Although we won’t see them in the postseason this year, this was only their first year, and I would expect to see them back and stronger next season with a year’s experience under their belts. (0%, 0%)
11th:
12th:
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Prediction Results -- Week 9
An especially non-impressive display by all of us this past week, but as often is the case in the USCL, surprises were abound making it fairly difficult to have a good score. I have managed to narrow Ron Young’s lead so that I’m definitely within striking distance despite there only being one regular season week plus the playoffs left and with a bit of luck, I just might come out in first. Josh Gutman, despite closing the gap even further this week, unfortunately is going to be need a little bit more than mere luck to come out on top at this point.
Total after Week 9:
Ron Young (+4 This Week): 80
Arun Sharma (+8): 76
Josh Gutman (+10): 61
SF over SEA 3 – 1
JG: Correct +4
AS/RY: SF 2.5 – 1.5 +2
PHI over NY 2.5 – 1.5
AS: Tie +0
JG/RY: NY 2.5 – 1.5 +0
NJ ties BAL 2 – 2
JG/AS: Correct +4
RY: NJ 2.5 – 1.5 +0
QNS ties BOS 2 – 2
AS/RY: BOS 2.5 – 1.5 +0
JG: BOS 3 – 1 +0
MIA over CAR 2.5 – 1.5
RY: CAR 3 – 1 +0
AS: CAR 3.5 – 0.5 +0
JG: CAR 4 – 0 +0
DAL over TN 2.5 – 1.5
JG/AS/RY: DAL 3 – 1 +2
Week 9 Game of the Week
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st Place: NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0
Greg Shahade: A very aesthetically pleasing game by Molner. His piece sacrifice was strong, his time out for defensive moves like Qc1 was quite surprising, and the material imbalance at the end of the game was also interesting. I voted for this game over the 2nd place game because I am trying to choose games that have the best chance of finishing well in the Game of the Year contest. It's obvious to me that Friedel-Serper has no chance to do well in Game of the Year while this game does. (1st place: 5 points)
Arun Sharma: The second very nice sacrificial win by Molner in a row (the first of which nearly won Game of the Week as well!). The idea I most liked was 24. Qc1!, quite an odd looking move at first glance due to the seeming anti-attacking potential of it, yet as shown the idea that probably won him the game! After a tough 2006 season, Molner has come up huge for the Knockouts twice in 2007 and is definitely a big reason why they're in such a good position to be in the postseason. (2nd place: 4 points)
Jonathan Hilton: I was certainly impressed by Molner’s piece sacrifice, but I had a feeling it was more or less unsound. After some analysis I decided Black’s best chance to turn the tables was 25. … f4!, and although I later confirmed the move with the computer (Fritz gives something along the lines of two pawns in Black’s favor), the game was still very interesting and there were certainly chances for complications. This week’s competition was a close call! I would have given the prize to Rodriguez given the chance, but I am not dissatisfied with the result: after all, Molner has creamed me at least twice in over-the-board play! (NR: 0 points)
(NOTE: We had to bring in a tiebreaker judge because this game and Friedel - Serper were tied on points and on all tiebreakers. FM Donny Ariel's decision between the two games determined which game won, received the $100 prize, and was entered in the Game of the Year contest.)
FM Donny Ariel: Obviously implied in offering a qualitative prize is the assumption that chess spectators are enjoying chess for more than just its sporting results. I like both games a lot, and I'm not just saying that. I liked the Molner game more because I found it more surprising which meant there was more suspense, and I especially appreciated the Qc1 Nd1 idea. The way White wins in the Friedel - Serper game is much more typical which is not to disparage it in the least, but if you were going to show a friend of yours an interesting game and you could choose only one there is no question the Molner game is more "special" if you will forgive the use of such an imprecise characterization. (Winner: Molner vs Kaufman)
Total Score of Molner vs Kaufman: 9 points
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd Place: IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs GM Gregory Serper (SEA) 1-0
Arun Sharma: I felt that this was the best choice for Game of the Week since to me it really was of far higher quality than any of the other candidates and was certainly plenty dramatic on top of that. The thing I most liked about this game was the way Friedel seemed to quietly build up his position slowly but surely gaining a larger and larger advantage, just grinding his opponent down. And then to finish the game off, with both players desperately low on time, he allowed the seemingly dangerous 50... gxf3, but had a very nice mating net spun in reply which definitely couldn't have been easy to see all the possibilities of in the low amount of time he had left. (1st Place: 5 points)
Greg Shahade: I think this game was clearly less interesting than Molner's game. Stop worrying about quality and worry more about fun sacrifices. Despite that I really did like Friedel's game because he made a lot of slow creeping manuevers throughout the game that were kind of pleasing to me. However, I can only be so hard on someone for ranking this game 1st as I did rank it 2nd. In any case I suspect that GM Serper would not enjoy having every loss that he has to Friedel being named as Game of the Week while every time he beats Friedel, the game is practically ignored. (2nd place: 4 points)
Jonathan Hilton: Not Ranked (NR: 0 points)
Total Score of Friedel vs Serper: 9 points
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd Place: NM Eric Rodriguez (MIA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 1-0
Jonathan Hilton: This 257-point upset is, to my knowledge, the biggest yet this year – that is, if you don’t count the undefeated Vinay Bhat’s 277-point “upset” over Hikaru Nakamura! Although my pick for this week’s #1 game was certainly not the most accurately played, it is still a fascinating encounter. The position before Schroer’s blunder, 22. … Re6??, was still quite unclear – perhaps 22. … Kg7 could have led to a successful defense, but White retains clear compensation for his piece. Congratulations to Rodriguez on his courage, mixing it up against such a strong player, helping Miami gain a crucial point in its victory over Carolina ! (1st place: 5 points)
Arun Sharma: This was a rather tricky game for me to rank. For sure it was exciting and contained a very interesting sacrifice, but the fact that Black made it so easy with 22... Re6? somewhat lowered this game's appeal. However, it was certainly a big upset (as most including myself thought Miami was dead before this match even had begun. I guess we stil haven't learned not to take anything for granted in the USCL) and as usual you have to have respect for someone who's willing to try such dangerous ideas even if they might not be totally sound (sort of similar to the way Schroer did that himself when he won Game of the Week). (3rd place: 3 points)
Greg Shahade: A fantastic performance by Rodriguez. Honestly I didn't rank this game higher because I felt that Schroer didn't put up enough resistance. Despite the huge rating gap, Rodriguez just crushed him from beginning to end. I do admit that I almost ranked this game higher. I had a very difficult time ranking the games this week as I felt there were quite a few fun and impressive performances. (5th place: 1 point)
Total Score of Rodriguez vs Schroer: 9 points
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Considered Games (judges' scores in parenthesis)
8 points (Jon 4, Greg 3, Arun 1): IM Irina Krush (NY) vs IM Bryan Smith (PHI) 0-1
3 points (Jon 3): IM Eric Tangborn (SEA) vs IM Vinay Bhat (SF) 0-1
3 points (Greg 2, Jon 1): IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) 1-0
2 points (Arun 2): GM Joel Benjamin (NJ) vs GM Pawel Blehm (BAL) 1-0
2 points (Jon 2): FM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (BAL) vs FM Aviv Friedman (NJ) 1-0