Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Game of the Year 8th Place Prediction
So I've once again reverted to being habitually wrong. While some might argue that it's far too late for me to change my ways, I shall nevertheless give it a shot this week. Naturally, this does have something to do with the Commissioner's hint that the game which is going to get the ax happened to get a first place vote and naturally some games seem much more probable to me to have gotten such votes than others. While I clearly misjudged how good the Sammour-Hasbun vs Kuljasevic contest was, I still feel the Bhat vs Nakamura game is much more likely to have received a first place vote than it and as such it will have to be my top choice to fall this week (for those wondering, yes I'm finally shying away from my "stick to my guns" theory, and I'm sure I'll pay the price for it so for those of you placing bets, probably the wise money is on the Sammour-Hasbun game). Some other games will also go up a bit, as the Christiansen vs Wolff and Martinez vs Zilberstein games also seem the type which could have gotten a 1st Place vote and still get a reasonably low overall ranking (however, I would still be quite surprised if the Martinez game was to be this low). Here's what I would have to guess for now.
30%: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0
22%: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0
15%: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0
11%: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1
9%: IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs IM Ron Burnett (TN) 0-1
6%: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0
5%: FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0
2%: GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1
Number of Points: 61
We'll see if I can reach a new all time low in being wrong come next week!