Friday, April 11, 2008

Game of the Year 6th Place Prediction

So which game will be the dreaded bubble game? That is, after fourteen weeks of this contest and the building hope that you might receive a prize, which player's hopes will be dashed at the last possible moment? Well it's incumbent on me to try to guess despite my recent track record. Since I've noted basically all of the platitudes of how terrible I am at this over and over, no need to repeat any of them this week, instead will just delve into the numbers. Only minor note is that since we once again are treated to knowing the next game also got a first place vote, just as it did for the 8th Place Game, it makes me mostly inclined to pick the Bhat vs Nakamura game as the most likely to go for the same reasons mentioned there (though I have a nagging feeling that the commissioner might be dropping these misleading hints just to try to ensure I keep getting it wrong so feel free to draw your own conclusion).

33%: IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0

28%: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0

16%: GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0

14%: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1

6%: FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0

3%: GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1

Number of Points: 70

We'll see if I can finally make a redeeming effort at the elimination which is almost certainly the most important one to date!


Ilya said...

I think the Martinez game needs to be eliminated because as impressive as it was we must not forget that it was a case of someone walking into a prepared novelty. Most of the game was prepared at home with the help of others and I cannot fathom how a game like this can contend for one of the best games of the year.

Arun Sharma said...

Well I agree that how highly that game should be ranked is largely a matter of perspective. Some people I've talked to about it basically hold that same kind of opinion "It was all preparation, bleh" while others are super impressed by it.

One thing that game definitely gets higher marks than any other game though is in the quality department and given the way the judges are ranking up to this point, I think they chose the route of being super impressed by the game. Of course, basically everything I've predicted has been wrong recently so you probably should find another source!

Ilya said...

Yeah it was impressive no doubt, Bh6!! is also very cool. However, the winning player had little to do over the board, and the resistance factor was minimal. We cannot reward home preparation no matter how nice it is over creativity others displayed in their games over the board, it would be a horrible lapse IMO if this game wins anything.

Anonymous said...

Why not, ilya? The award is for the game of the year, not best post-theory game of the year. If good prep gets a player a slight or clear edge and he goes on to win nicely, why is that ok, but even better prep leading to a more beautiful finish isn't? And suppose Martinez hadn't 'fessed up that it was prep. Then everyone would fall all over themselves praising his game, right? How is the game any different by his telling us? Maybe some other game is better, but it would suck if the judges went against him for preparing too well.

curtains said...

Ilya, which game do you think should win? Just curious.