Thursday, October 23, 2008
With there only being a week left in the regular season, in lieu of doing power rankings this week, I'll just run down the playoff scenarios for every team (since after all those would probably amount to the same thing at this point anyway). Note that it's entirely possible that certain seeding could be determined using the second tiebreaker if teams are tied in match points (the first tiebreaker for this being game points) which is opponent's record – something that can greatly change from week to week (and is dependent on basically every other result that happens that week also) and is thus something which is pretty much impossible to guess as to who will have the better of it at the end of Week 10. Keeping that in mind, here are how things look (do note that several things I write will be repetitive since a certain scenario for a team might be repeated in regards to how it affects another team when I talk about them, but I do want to give each team a full rundown when discussing them).
Queens Pioneers: Queens has clinched a playoff spot and will almost certainly take first place, with the only way for them to slip to second occurring if they lose to Boston, Carolina defeats Philadelphia, and in the process Carolina scores two game points more than them (if Carolina scores exactly one and a half more, it comes down to the second tiebreaker).
Carolina Cobras: Carolina has clinched a playoff spot and will most likely finish second. Only with a win against Philadelphia and a Queens loss to Boston which has them scoring two more game points than Queens can they take the top spot (again with exactly one and a half it will fall to the second tiebreaker). Very similarly, they can slip to third only with a loss and a Boston win where Boston scores two and a half more game points than them (with it coming down to the second tiebreaker if the difference this week is exactly two game points).
Boston Blitz: Boston has clinched a playoff spot and will most likely finish third or fourth. They can move up to second only with a win against Queens and a Carolina loss to Philadelphia which has them scoring two and half game points more than Carolina (with two game points leaving it to the second tiebreaker). They will fall to fourth with a loss and a New Jersey win (with a New York win, it's only possible to fall to fourth with a 4 – 0 win by New York and a 4 – 0 loss by Boston to Queens, but even then it comes down to the second tiebreaker). They can also fall to fourth with a loss and a New Jersey draw if Boston loses by a score of 4 – 0 or 3.5 – 0.5 (with a 3 – 1 loss, it falls to the second tiebreaker). Likewise, they can also get fourth with a draw and a New Jersey win if New Jersey wins by a score of 4 – 0 or 3.5 – 0.5 (3 – 1 again requires the second tiebreaker).
New Jersey Knockouts: Before I discuss New Jersey's situation, I feel the need to get something off my chest. One might remember how midway through the season GM Benjamin essentially mocked me for my general appraisals of how his team would do this season, something he was probably justified in doing given how I'd predicted them to finish in fifth and they were sitting in second at 3.5 – 1.5 However, justified or not, being my usual petty self, I can't resist a chance for payback as I must point out that should his team fall to New York in the final week, they will finish in the EXACT place I predicted them to finish in at the beginning (fifth) with the EXACT record I envisioned (4.5 – 5.5) (and then I'll really have some fun). While of course, whether he wants to view me saying this as being a threat or turns it around and uses it for motivation to not lose this week, well that's up to him, but as I said, I felt the need to say it while I had the opportunity.
New Jersey needs to win or draw against New York to clinch their playoff spot (they are eliminated with a loss). Should they do so, they are most likely to finish in fourth with them moving up to third with a win and a Boston loss, a win and a Boston draw where they win by a score of 4 – 0 or 3.5 – 0.5, or a draw and a Boston loss where Boston loses by a score of 4 – 0 or 3.5 – 0.5 (in both of the latter two scenarios, a 3 – 1 score requires the second tiebreaker).
New York Knights: New York can clinch a playoff spot only with a win against New Jersey. Should they do so, they are pretty much guaranteed to finish in fourth as they can only move up to third with a 4 – 0 win combined with a 4 – 0 loss by Boston (which will still require the use of the second tiebreaker).
Philadelphia Inventors, Baltimore Kingfishers: Philadelphia and Baltimore have been eliminated from postseason contention.
San Francisco Mechanics: San Francisco has clinched a playoff spot and will win the division with a last week's win or draw against Miami. With a loss they will fall to second except with a 4 – 0 loss combined with a 4 – 0 win by Dallas (if either of these wins occurs by a 3.5 – 0.5 score then the second tiebreaker is needed), in which case they will fall to third.
Miami Sharks: Miami has clinched a playoff spot and can clinch the division only with a last week win against San Francisco. With a draw they are guaranteed second place, and with a loss they will also get second place unless Dallas defeats Chicago, in which case they fall to third.
Dallas Destiny: Dallas has clinched their playoff spot and will most likely finish third. They can move up to second with a win against Chicago combined with a Miami loss to San Francisco or a 4 – 0 win combined with a 4 – 0 loss by San Francisco (once again, if either one of the losses is 3.5 – 0.5, the second tiebreaker is required). They can slip to fourth only with a loss combined with a Seattle victory over Arizona which has Seattle scoring two and a half more game points than them (with exactly two, again second tiebreaker decides it).
Seattle Sluggers: Seattle clinches a playoff spot with a win where they are most likely to finish fourth unless Chicago defeats Dallas also, and Seattle scores two and a half game points more than Dallas (with exactly two, second tiebreaker is used). They can also clinch a playoff spot in some situations with a a draw or loss (though fourth place is guaranteed then). With a draw and a Chicago draw or loss, they will also clinch their spot. With a 2.5 – 1.5 loss along with a Chicago loss, they can also take fourth (a worse loss eliminates them though).
Chicago Blaze: Chicago can at best take fourth in the West which they will do with a win over Dallas along with a Seattle draw or loss to Arizona. They can also take fourth with a draw combined with a Seattle loss.
Arizona Scorpions: Arizona can take fourth place only with at least a 3 – 1 victory over Seattle along with a Chicago loss to Dallas. If either of these does not occur, they are eliminated.
Tennessee Tempo: Tennessee has been eliminated from postseason contention.