2008 Season Predictions Part 1 -- Eastern Division

With the fourth season of the USCL sneaking up on us, it's time once again for you readers to be subjected to another strong dosage of my incoherent babble. Traditionally, this whole process begins with me making preseason predictions and since that has worked so well in the past (or has it?), there seems to be little reason not to follow that same trend this year. As has been the case the last few seasons, it seems very clear that this coming season should be the best one yet given the huge increase of top players competing along with the two additional teams. Last year we were treated to new displays like a double GM vs. double GM match, and I would only guess that such things will be amplified further this season along with several new things like perhaps one team using a lineup of four IMs (read further to see what I mean!). To try to decipher what teams have the small advantages this year to help them overcome the general parity of the league and rise to the top, I will again use the same general system I used last year (East and West predictions from 2007) to try to rank them. However, as more and more seasons of the league are completed, certain trends become apparent which naturally forces me to somewhat reexamine the exact way I evaluate the teams, and here is how I will do it in 2008.


Strength / Flexibility: Last year I had each of these aspects as an individual category, but I feel it's appropriate to combine them this year. In terms of strength, since all teams are capable of submitting rosters near the rating cap, to me this has always been more a question of being able to be able to do that while also being able to "stack" a particular board. This sort of goes hand in hand with flexibility as the ability to do that naturally hinges on having many possible lineups which are near the rating cap. The larger issue of general flexibility to me lies in being able to use a near maximal lineup even in the absence of any one of your players since as the league grows stronger and stronger, invariably more of the strongest players will have to be away for other chess obligations. On the other hand, history somewhat suggests that that advantage may become somewhat unimportant in the later portions of the season as the majority of the more successful teams seem to settle into one or two specific lineups in the later matches, probably based mostly on what has carried them to their success in the early part of the season. This might perhaps render such lineup flexibility to be somewhat irrelevant at those later stages, but as the league players become more and more familiar with one another as more matches are played, another issue in being flexible may well lie in being able in an appropriate situation to switch between players of similar strength when you feel one is a better matchup against the player you expect the opposing team to use in the same spot.

Underrated Players: This may well be the most important factor. Simply put, due to the rating parity of the league, having players who for whatever reason are clearly stronger than their "league rating" is an obvious advantage. The three most natural ways this occurs is with players above 2590 who count only as 2590 when determining lineup legality, female players who count as forty points lower, and most importantly young players who have the greatest ability to capitalize on this edge with their current strength often being a hundred or even more points higher than their league rating.

Dedication: Again, teams who put extra preparation to their matches are naturally likely to have a distinct advantage. I know some would likely be skeptical of how important this might be, but I feel the near Game of the Year Winner, Martinez vs Zilberstein, from last year's Wildcard Round clearly demonstrates how much home preparation can really pay off. In addition, I think team unity is another aspect of this general concept which is also quite important. Once again, I know some would disagree with that since even though the USCL is at heart a team event, when it comes time to play the matches, the players play individually at that point. But once again, based on history, teams which display such unity just generally have seemed to perform better. I'm not sure if that's merely psychological or the more natural assumption that teams with more unity are far more likely to prepare together, but it's clear to me that it's a factor to be considered.

Other Factors: Now that the league has at least a semi-reasonable amount of history to look back on, many teams and individual players have definitely developed some unique advantages. These of course vary greatly amongst the teams (as will be noted when I discus them), but certainly in a league which is so uniform any small edge can be a huge boost. One general factor I included in this last season was "schedule strength", something that seems quite debatable as to its importance as with all teams now being able to have lineups of near optimal rating, in most senses no team's schedule should be much easier than another's. So while I might mention that factor on occasion, I will never view it as more than a very slight advantage.


So once again, I will assign each team a score from one to ten in the four above categories and use that to rank the teams in each division and project their record. Remember also that when I list a team's strongest lineups, that will only be players from their main roster as since alternates cannot play in the post-season, their role is pretty limited overall.



Eastern Division:



1st Place: Boston Blitz


Strongest Lineups:

1st / 2nd: Two of Christiansen / Perelshteyn / Sammour-Hasbun
3rd: Esserman
4th: Krasik

1st: Christiansen / Perelshteyn / Sammour-Hasbun
2nd / 3rd: Two of Vigorito / Shmelov / Riordan / Esserman
4th: Krasik

1st: Christiansen / Perelshteyn / Sammour-Hasbun
2nd: Shmelov
3rd: Riordan
4th: Esserman


Strength / Flexibility: Boston, as always, comes bearing a very strong lineup, very stacked at the top. While they might not have quite the sheer power they had last season with the two vastly underrated players Shmelov and Williams, they still have plenty of strong lineups with many possibilities up top. They only really lack real flexibility in the bottom spot, as Krasik by necessity will almost certainly be forced to hold down that spot in the vast majority of their matches. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: One might think that after this category was likely Boston's biggest trump in 2007 that they really don't have much to boast about here in 2008, but that really doesn't seem true to me. Of course, both of their GMs counting as 2590 is a natural benefit and after sporting a 2833 performance rating in 2008, it would be difficult to not ascribe Sammour-Hasbun as an asset in this regard. Esserman's recent results and current rating also clearly place him as such an asset and if Krasik can perform at the level he did in 2006, he can definitely be one as well. Score: 7.

Dedication: This has likely been the major thing that has allowed the Blitz to capture the East in the past two years as they are definitely one of the teams that puts a good amount of preparation into their matches, and when it comes to team unity, it's hard to think of a team which can best them in that regard as evidenced by their numerous videos and interviews from last season. Score: 9.

Other Factors: After two close but not quite finishes in the past two seasons, I doubt any team will be hungrier for the USCL title this year than Boston. As I've stated before, with Boston doing a bit better each season than the last would be a very good trend for them to follow once again if they wish to realize their dreams this year as that can have only one outcome if they do so. However, the big thing in their favor is very simply the fact that they've won the East Regular Season title in both of the last two years, and in a league as tough as balanced as this, that clearly shows they are doing something right so I see little reason not to follow that trend further. Score: 8.


Total: 32
Projected Record: 6.5 – 3.5



2nd Place: Queens Pioneers


Strongest Lineups:

1st / 2nd / 3rd: Three of Stripunsky / Vovsha / Schneider / Lenderman
4th: Ostrovskiy

1st: Vovsha
2nd: Schneider
3rd: Lenderman
4th: Katz

1st / 2nd: Two of Stripunsky / Vovsha / Schneider / Lenderman
3rd: Zhao
4th: Thaler / Katz


Strength / Flexibility: Queens again has a very powerful roster with many possibilities on basically every board. One weakness they seemed to have in 2007 was Stripunsky and Vovsha being forced to play nearly every match on the top two boards, which clearly is something they have solved for this season. Strangely, the place Queens might be a tad lacking is in the Board Three spot – basically being forced to either stack that board or be out-rated on it (I say strange since last year Queens had three players in the 2300 – 2400 range on their initial roster; players who essentially tend to be ideal for Board Three in most teams' makeup). Score: 7.

Underrated Players: Queens is definitely one of the most armed teams in this regard with Stripunsky well over 2600 and Vovsha based on last year's performance and recent showing at the New England Masters almost certainly such an asset also. Most importantly though, Queens has a nice array of young talent: recent IM norm scorer Zhao, current master Thaler, and National Elementary Champion Ostovskiy, all now well above their league ratings. This to me is where Queens might really have a notch up on several other teams. Score: 9.

Dedication: Again as a team which probably functions a reasonable amount as the lower boards being students to the higher boards, they will always have an intrinsic edge both in preparation purposes and team unity. Score: 8.

Other Factors: Queens narrowly missed out on a playoff birth in their first season and with a year's experience, I have a feeling this may be a break out year for them. Although Stripunsky had a sub-par 2007 season, if he can return to the realm that he scored in 2005, Queens will be a super strong team. In general though, after being a fairly one dimensional team in terms of lineups in 2007, they seem to really have expanded greatly on that which bodes well for them. Score: 7.


Total: 31
Projected Record: 6 – 4



3rd Place: New York Knights


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Shabalov
2nd: Krush / Braylovsky
3rd: Bonin
4th: Herman / Zenyuk

(can't use Krush + Herman here)

1st / 2nd: Two of Fedorowicz / Charbonneau / Krush
3rd: Braylovsky / Bonin
4th: Herman / Zenyuk

(can't use Fedorowicz + Charbonneau + Braylovsky + Herman)


Strength / Flexibility: With the league's first triple GM roster, New York obviously has no shortage of strength. Having such an array along with Krush and sometimes Braylovsky to handle the top two boards, they definitely have a good amount of flexibility in stacking the top couple of boards also. They really don't seem to be lacking sufficient possibilities for handling the bottom two boards either; there only real issue to me is with several of their players likely to be away for several events (Miami Open and Mind Games Olympiad in China). Nevertheless, given the large number of choices their roster really seems to afford them, I think New York is probably the strongest team in the league in this regard. Score: 9.

Underrated Players: While New York may not have the 100+ point underrated players that other teams boast, they certainly have some real assets in this category with Shabalov a frequent super 2700 player along with both Herman and Zenyuk whose league results and current ratings definitely establish them as beyond their league ratings. Those factors, along with having two females who will likely be very active roster members definitely give the Knights a nice boost here. Score: 8.

Dedication: Given the fairly large changes to the Knights roster, it's clear that the manager (Krush) has taken strides to sew up any problems she might have perceived last year. It's rather difficult to know if this largely new team will be able to display the appropriate unity to rise to the top, but with Shabalov residing in a different state, and Charbonneau hard at work for on many days, it's hard to imagine that they will be able to match many of the other teams when it comes to preparation. Score: 7.

Other Factors: I have a feeling most will be surprised by predicting the Knights to not finish in one of the top two spots, especially with the league's first triple GM roster. However, like their arch-rivals, the Boston Blitz, I really feel history should not be an overlooked factor as the Knights have greatly struggled in the first half of their season in both of the last two years. While some might consider it ridiculous to consider that pertinent when this year's roster is so different from last year's, I've been proven wrong too many times by ignoring the league's, albeit short, historical evidence. Score: 5.


Total: 29
Projected Record: 5.5 – 4.5



4th Place: Philadelphia Inventors


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Kudrin
2nd: Smith
3rd: Bartell
4th: Bady

1st: Kudrin
2nd: Smith / Bartell
3rd / 4th: Two of J Shahade / Yeager / Costigan / Wilson

(can't use Smith + Yeager + Costigan here)


Strength / Flexibility: As shown last season, Philadelphia's typical roster with Kudrin manning the top board is quite strong, and given it really didn't change this season, there's no reason why it won't be this season. Plus with the addition of Bartell to give them a little more flexibility on second board along with a different way to stack the roster, they definitely have a good improvement in that regard. While they still suffer with being forced into a suboptimal roster should Kudrin need to miss a match, it's hard to see them really lacking in any other regard here. Score: 7.

Underrated Players: Philadelphia basically has the same trumps here as last season with Yeager now well above his league rating and Costigan and Wilson both continuing to perform above their league ratings. Score: 6.

Dedication: The Inventors still have the handicap of having a GM not in the near vicinity, but things do look up for them this season with Bartell, a friend of Smith's, joining and with J Shahade returning after a long layoff trying to prepare for China, I have a feeling she'll be quite dedicated also. Score: 7.

Other Factors: The Inventors have always had the advantage that my almost universally picking them to finish in last has undoubtedly served as great motivation. Now that they don't have that edge this season, it's very possible that they will just collapse completely without it and finish in last. On a more serious note though, one disadvantage I really felt the Inventors had last season was their being rather one dimensional in nature – all of their lineups basically being of a very similar shape which seems to be something they have definitely expanded on with the addition of Bartell. The Inventors mostly have tended to rely on the extensive experience of their veteran players, but recently have taken strides to utilize some of the other key advantages like have a better variety of lineups and also using the rating advantages both a female and a youth can provide. Now that they have moved into the current times in those regards, they may now really have what it takes to compete for the League Championship. Score: 8.


Total: 28
Projected Record: 5 – 5



5th Place: New Jersey Knockouts


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Benjamin
2nd: Gulko
3rd: Ju / Molner / Shen
4th: Lian

1st: Benjamin / Gulko
2nd: Ippolito
3rd: Friedman
4th: Lian

1st: Benjamin / Gulko
2nd: Ippolito / Friedman
3rd: Ju / Molner
4th: Shen

1st: Ippolito
2nd: Friedman
3rd: Ju
4th: Molner


Strength / Flexibility: Having added Gulko to their campaign, the Knockouts definitely have a wider variety of top lineups to wield, something I felt they were a bit lacking in 2007. As noted above, New Jersey seems to have four different lineup styles, all of which are quite powerful and should give them a good amount of flexibility. While they can't use the lineup with a GM on the top board and Ju on the bottom; something which served them quite well last season, the additional new possibilities likely more then make up for that. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: This might be one category where the Knockouts aren't quite up to par with most other teams in the league. While they do have two 2600+ GMs and a good amount of youth, it seems for the league ratings their youth really aren't far off from their current ratings. Score: 4.

Dedication: Benjamin by most indications, in addition to being their top board, seems to also have taken on a semi-role of preparing the team. Given that he's also something of a pseudo-mentor to both Ju and Shen due to the recent US Chess School, I would only expect that to be amplified this season. The Knockout players in general seem quite dedicated to the team in general given the large number of annotated games by the players themselves from their last year's matches and so New Jersey seems quite strong here on the whole. Score: 7.

Other Factors: With Benjamin's wife expecting a baby soon, it's really unclear if he might suddenly become unavailable for some portion of the season. While in one sense, the Knockouts definitely have a few very good lineups they could still use in that circumstance, given his position as the general team leader, it seems quite likely that his being unavailable would adversely affect the team beyond him simply being unable to play. Score: 7.


Total: 26
Projected Record: 4.5 – 5.5




6th Place: Baltimore Kingfishers


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Erenburg
2nd: Blehm
3rd: R Kaufman / Zimmer / Kahn
4th: Defibaugh

1st: Erenburg / Blehm
2nd: Enkhbat
3rd: L Kaufman
4th: Defibaugh

1st: Erenburg / Blehm
2nd: Enkhbat / L Kaufman
3rd / 4th: Two of R Kaufman / Zimmer / Kahn


Strength / Flexibility: The Kingfishers are a squad who I've often criticized for not having any youth on their team, but they have changed that this season with two young players Defibaugh and Low (one as an alternate) who will allow them to use their probable most favored lineup of GM + Enkbhat + L Kaufman (incidentally the lineup that essentially was used in their 2005 League Championship). In addition, they are also one of the few teams who can use a current 2300+ on their Board Four with them having several lineups with Zimmer manning the bottom board. I definitely think Baltimore has a great deal of flexibility more than last season. Score: 8.

Underrated Players: Baltimore has mostly been lacking in this regard the past couple of seasons, but this year they definitely have two big assets with R Kaufman recently achieving his third IM norm and Defibaugh now well above his league rating. Score: 6.

Dedication: This was definitely a place where I felt the Kingfishers likely weren't quite up to par in 2007 with R Kaufman not being on the main roster, and just in general having several team members who only played one or two matches all season, naturally suggested that they didn't have a great deal of team unity. This year's roster definitely seems more conducive to them being better in that regard this season but how good remains to be seen. Score: 7.

Other Factors: Once again I feel I must dock a bit from Baltimore here based on recent history, having finished last in the East each of the past two years (on the other hand, the reward for this is mathematically the easiest schedule of inter-league opponents). It might seem ridiculous to deduct based on this given that a loss in the last week each year has been the difference between a playoff spot and finishing last, but I still feel having that winner's mentality from the start is never a bad thing (which is why I continue to rely on past performances when making judgments for the teams in general). Score: 5.


Total: 26
Projected Record: 4.5 – 5.5



7th Place: Carolina Cobras


Strongest Lineups:

1st: Milman
2nd: Schroer
3rd: Zaikov / Simpson / Jones
4th: Dana / Bapat

1st: Milman / Schroer
2nd: Zaikov
3rd: Simpson
4th: Jones


Strength / Flexibility: In terms of strength, Carolina on paper is certainly a fine team, but realistically when looking strictly at their players, the fact that they are unable to use the lineup they used nearly all of last season really sticks out. Given they failed to qualify for the post-season when mostly using that roster, in the sense that that lineup is no longer legal, their roster seems to have somewhat decreased in power. Given that most of the other teams have seemingly increased their strength, the Cobras seem likely to be fighting an uphill battle this season. Score: 6.

Underrated Players: Unfortunately, I see the Cobras extremely lacking here as their two main trumps in the past in this regard, Zaikov and Jones now have increased to the point where their league ratings are probably fairly close to their actual strength (as mentioned, their ratings have increased enough that their traditional lineup from last season doesn't work anymore). Score: 3.

Dedication: Carolina's main roster seems to be quite disparate in profession with Milman and Zaikov both students while Schroer and Jones the opposite (ok, of chess, but you get the idea). That does seem to naturally make it difficult to mesh well for team preparation in general. Carolina does on the other hand have a very similar roster to last season, and hopefully that can give them some edge in the unity department. Score: 7.

Other Factors: I'm sure Milman was not the most pleased individual to hear of the Cobras return to the East given him personally performing much better against the West. On the other hand, both Zaikov and Jones performed very well in the East in 2006. Granted both of them will likely have to play different roles this season compared to then, but if the Cobras want to find something to build on, perhaps it can start with the two of them. Score: 7.


Total: 23
Projected Record: 3.5 – 6.5



Stay tuned for Parts 2 and 3, where I will try to break down the West and then the Playoffs!

Dallas Destiny Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Dallas has not decided which rating list to use. Aug 08 listed below)

1. IM Marko Zivanic: 2552
2. IM Davorin Kuljasevic: 2528
3. IM Jacek Stopa: 2507
4. IM Drasko Boskovic: 2504
5. IM John Bartholomew: 2501
6. FM Igor Shneider: 2426
7. NM Tautvydas Vedrickas: 2347
8. WFM Bayaraa Zorigt: 2217


Alternates:

1. NM Chaitanya Vaidya
2. WFM Karina Vazirova: 2108


The defending champions come to the table bearing a very powerful lineup, all three of their 2007 All Stars returning. The Destiny have a very unique roster, having no players above 2600 and yet a whopping five in the 2500-2600 range! This unusual balance of power helped lead the Destiny to the 2007 Championship so it's no surprise that they chose a similar structure for the 2008 campaign. Despite the large number of returning team members, in some sense the Destiny may well have a very different look to them in 2008 as their strange balance might have their typical Board One from last season, IM Boskovic, and their typical Board Three, IM Stopa, playing in the opposite board order this season! (of course this might not end up being the case as their rating list is still undecided, and the order will likely be their choice anyway assuming the two are within fifty points of each other in the list they do use). Given the closeness in ratings of all their top players, it's really anyone's guess what the Dallas's final board order will end up being. Destiny fans clearly hope small fringes like this will help push Dallas to the top again to be the first repeat Champions in 2008.

Boston Blitz Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Boston is using the Dec 07 Rating List)

1. GM Larry Christiansen: 2669
2. GM Eugene Perelshteyn: 2592
3. SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun: 2576
4. IM David Vigorito: 2433
5. NM Denys Shmelov: 2393
6. NM Charles Riordan: 2336
7. NM Marc Esserman: 2265
8. NM Ilya Krasik: 2137


Alternates:

1. NM Chris Williams: 2298
2. NM Vadim Martirosov: 2255


After two super strong seasons, both of which left the Blitz slightly short of their Championship dreams and likely craving it more than ever, they return this season with another super powerful lineup. With all four of their 2007 All Stars returning along with near 2006 All Star NM Riordan and the improving NM Esserman, the USCL title is very likely to be within Boston's grasp again this year. Seeming to generally take one extra stride than the previous season in their quests, if the Blitz can duplicate that feat this season, a USCL Championship can be their only logical result in 2008.

Seattle Sluggers Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Seattle has not decided which rating list to use. Aug 08 listed below)

1. GM Hikaru Nakamura: 2732
2. GM Gregory Serper: 2592
3. IM Eric Tangborn: 2455
4. FM Slava Mikhailuk: 2437
5. NM Michael Lee: 2314
6. FM John Readey: 2296
7. Joshua Sinanan: 2180


Alternates:

1. FM Marcel Milat: 2354


After a disappointing end to their 2007 season, the Sluggers have taken a stride to reclaim the great strength that they displayed in 2006, adding GM Nakamura to the campaign. With his explosive, tactical style in contrast to GM Serper's rock solid approach, the Sluggers have a good variety of top lineups to throw at their opponents. That change, along with the still improving young NM Lee, probably ready to now hold the reins on Board Three and allow the Sluggers to field both their GMs at once could well provide the spark needed to let Seattle make a return to the top in 2008.

Miami Sharks Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Miami has not decided which rating list to use. Aug 08 listed below)

1. GM Julio Becerra: 2640
2. FM Bruci Lopez: 2486
3. FM Marcel Martinez: 2469
4. FM Osmanys Perea: 2453
5. IM Blas Lugo: 2393
6. FM Charles Galofre: 2326
7. NM Eric Rodriguez: 2238


The familiar faces for Miami return for them in the 2008 campaign after a roller coaster season which saw them struggle badly early only to make a remarkable run into the League Semifinals. Also having several new faces, including former Kingfisher FM Lopez, will undoubtedly give Miami a good amount of options for their second and third boards, spots where they've somewhat struggled in the past couple of seasons. If they can find a way to adequately balance this newfound freedom there, while also doing the same with their bottom board (as of now, given the high ended nature of their roster, they have don't have many options for that spot), then with two time MVP GM Becerra leading them, the Sharks will definitely be a strong force throughout 2008.

New Jersey Knockouts Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (New Jersey has not decided which rating list to use. Aug 08 listed below)

1. GM Joel Benjamin: 2644
2. IM Dean Ippolito: 2500
3. FM Aviv Friedman: 2407
4. NM Mackenzie Molner: 2397
5. NM Evan Ju: 2292
6. NM Victor Shen: 2265
7. NM Michael Khodarkovsky: 2248
8. Jayson Lian: 2142


Alternates:

1. Andrew Ng: 2175


With a promising first season which saw the Knockouts miss the post-season by the closest of margins, they return with a nearly identical array of weapons in 2008. However, a year can be a tremendous difference when dealing with youth, and with 2007 All Star GM Benjamin leading them again, and their large collection of young talent, NM Ju, NM Shen, Lian, and the new addition Ng, all on the rise, New Jersey might just have that extra spark they need to crash into the post-season this time around.

Baltimore Kingfishers Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Baltimore has not decided which rating list to use. Aug 08 listed below)

1. GM Sergey Erenburg: 2592
2. FM Tegshsuren Enkhbat: 2446
3. IM Larry Kaufman: 2424
4. FM Ray Kaufman: 2348
5. FM Ralph Zimmer: 2328
6. WIM Tsagaan Battsetseg: 2234


After a spellbinding run which won them the 2005 USCL Championship, luck just hasn't seemed with the Kingfishers since then, as a loss in the last week of the regular season has left them out of the post-season in both of the last two seasons. With their normal rocks FM Enkbhat, IM L Kaufman, and WIM Battsetseg all returning, along with GM Erenburg and the much improved IM-Elect R Kaufman both likely to play much more this season, the combination of experience and the re-energizing the latter two might well provide, this could be the year of Baltimore's return to prominence.

Carolina Cobras Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Carolina has not decided which list to use. Aug 08 listed below)

1. IM Lev Milman: 2502
2. IM Jonathan Schroer: 2441
3. FM Oleg Zaikov: 2376
4. FM Ron Simpson: 2346
5. NM Craig Jones: 2320
6. Udayan Bapat: 2179
7. John Timmel: 2026


Alternates:

1. Adam Holmes: 1961


After a disappointing 2007 season, Carolina returns to the division where their legendary playoff birth in 2006 occurred. Both having been 2006 All Stars, FM Zaikov and NM Jones had great performances in 2006 against their East competitors, and they, along with their new addition FM Simpson, will likely be called on again to perform on the lower boards the way they did then if Carolina wants to make a return to the post-season in 2008.

Tennessee Tempo Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Tennessee is using the Oct 07 Rating List)

1. GM Jaan Ehlvest: 2668
2. IM Ron Burnett: 2412
3. FM Todd Andrews: 2350
4. FM Peter Bereolos: 2304
5. FM John Bick: 2249
6. NM Brian McCarthy: 2207
7. FM Jerry Wheeler: 2204
8. Jim Al-Shamma: 2127


Alternates:

1. Gerald Larson: 2105


After a rough first season, in their second season Tennessee seemed to take on a similar role that Philadelphia seemed to hold for their first two seasons -- being a dangerous team but seeming to lack the firepower to be a true playoff threat. That all changed for the Inventors when GM Jaan Ehlvest joined their cause midway through 2006 as they were on the brink of a playoff birth in the final week despite having started with an 0 - 4 record.

History may well repeat itself with the Tempo as with the addition of GM Ehlvest to their roster, we are likely to see a completely different Tempo team in 2008. With him holding down the top board, IM Burnett is certain to find things much more manageable on second board, and FM Andrews, after turning in a near All Star Performance on Board Two in 2007, is likely to be a serious threat on Board Three. While it's anyone's guess how many matches GM Ehlvest might play due to the distance, I have a feeling no one will be taking the Tempo for granted this season.

Chicago Blaze Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Chicago has not decided which rating list to use. Aug 08 listed below)

1. GM Yury Shulman: 2680
2. GM Dmitry Gurevich: 2581
3. IM Jan van de Mortel: 2460
4. FM Mehmed Pasalic: 2375
5. IM Angelo Young: 2356
6. Ilan Meerovich: 2131
7. Adam Strunk: 2113


With current US Champion GM Yury Shulman leading them, the Chicago Blaze have to like their chances in their first season in the USCL. Unlike their counterpart expansion team Arizona, Chicago has chosen a very traditional route in their roster with a host of titled players, including GM Gurevich, as the core of their team and two improving juniors, Meerovich and Strunk, as their anchors. As mentioned, the debate between a balanced and stacked team has seen many debates, and fans should have the chance to see the first major battle between those styles when the Blaze take on the Scorpions in the first USCL match of 2008 on August 25!

Queens Pioneers Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Queens has not decided which rating list to use. Aug 08 listed below)

1. GM Alexander Stripunsky: 2601
2. IM Eli Vovsha: 2532
3. IM Alex Lenderman: 2528
4. IM Dmitry Shneider: 2508
5. NM Parker Zhao: 2236
6. Benjamin Katz: 2108
7. Aleksandr Ostrovskiy: 2042


Having a year's experience under their belts, the Queens Pioneers hope to improve on their close but not quite fourth place finish of 2007 to achieve a post-season birth in 2008. With their two most active top players, GM Stripunsky and IM Vovsha both returning along with the addition of IMs Schneider and Lenderman to the main roster, the Pioneers will likely have a much wider variety of top lineups to throw at their opposition. When combined with the abundance of young talent they have featuring former World U16 Champion IM Lenderman, the dangerous NM Zhao who scored some key upsets last year, and National Elementary Champion Ostrovskiy, the Pioneers have the potential to achieve any challenge put before them.

Philadelphia Inventors Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Philadelphia is using the Oct 07 Rating List)

1. GM Sergey Kudrin: 2617
2. IM Bryan Smith: 2427
3. FM Thomas Bartell: 2415
4. NM Daniel Yeager: 2304
5. IM Richard Costigan: 2287
6. FM Michael Shahade: 2242
7. NM Elvin Wilson: 2240
8. FM Matthew Bengtson: 2232


After two seasons playing the role of being dangerous underdogs, the Inventors really found their groove in 2007 with a very strong season which saw them almost capture the Eastern Division Regular Season Title. With such a showing, it's no wonder they took up the plan of "go with what works", returning in 2008 with a very similar roster to last year. With all of their strong 2007 performers returning, along with the addition of former Knockout FM Bartell and the undoubted improvement of National High School Champion NM Yeager to help breathe some extra life into the team, look for the Inventors to be even stronger in 2008.

Arizona Scorpions Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (Arizona has not decided which rating list to use. Aug 08 listed below)

1. IM Rogelio Barcenilla: 2560
2. IM Levon Altounian: 2535
3. IM Mark Ginsburg: 2410
4. FM Daniel Rensch: 2411
5. FM Robby Adamson: 2377
6. NM Warren Harper: 2351
7. NM Leo Martinez: 2209


With a power packed roster the Arizona Scorpions promise to be a fierce addition to the USCL from the start. Despite their strength, they have nevertheless chosen quite a different route than the previous two teams to announce their teams, New York and San Francisco, with Arizona having nary a player above 2600 and only a single one below 2300. It's often been debated in previous seasons if this sort of balanced roster is more effective than the more traditional route that most teams seem to take in stacking the top few boards and using a underrated youngster at the bottom. While there's plenty of anecdotal evidence to support both of those theories, the Scorpions undoubtedly hope the balanced approach can be the standout one this year and help them bring a Championship to the desert in their first season.

San Francisco Mechanics Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (San Francisco is using the Oct 07 Rating List)

1. GM Patrick Wolff: 2623
2. IM Josh Friedel: 2543
3. IM Vinay Bhat: 2465
4. IM David Pruess: 2449
5. IM John Donaldson: 2458
6. FM Sam Shankland: 2248
7. FM Daniel Naroditsky: 2166
8. NM Gregory Young: 2186


Alternates:

1. IM Vince McCambridge: 2503
2. NM Nicholas Nip: 2043


Well it appears my taking note of the uniqueness of New York's triple GM roster might have been a bit premature as the very next team to announce their full roster, San Francsico, also comes to the table bearing such a trifecta. However, unlike their New York counterparts, the Mechanics seem to have taken the opposite route when it comes to their young talent as New York's two most notable young stars of last year, IM Robert Hess and FM Marc Arnold, have retreated from the spotlight while San Francisco seems determined to keep as many of their team members under legal age. With the much improved FM Sam Shankland rejoining the main roster after strong showings in 2006 and 2007, along with World U12 Champion FM Daniel Naroditsky, US Junior Co-Champion NM Gregory Young, and the youngest master in US History NM Nicholas Nip all a part of this year's campaign, the Mechanics seem to easily have the most impressive collection of young talent of any USCL team to date. Will the young guard help to lead the Mechanics back to the Championship they so craved and achieved in 2006? Only time will tell if the vigor of youth or the wisdom of years wins out in the end.

As stated, it's clear that San Francisco (like any other team) obviously has the tools to win the USCL Championship. The question still remains though, do I think they will do so? Again, keep checking back as more and more rosters are revealed to see who seems to have that extra edge to carry them over the top and become League Champions in 2008.

New York Knights Announce Their Roster

2008 Team Roster: (New York is using the Apr 08 Rating List)

1. GM Alex Shabalov: 2711
2. GM John Fedorowicz: 2514
3. GM Pascal Charbonneau: 2515
4. IM Irina Krush: 2515
5. SM Gregory Braylovsky: 2415
6. IM Jay Bonin: 2383
7. NM Matthew Herman: 2187
8. NM Iryna Zenyuk: 2180


Alternates:

1. IM Justin Sarkar: 2440
2. NM Evan Rosenberg: 2201


As the first team to announce their full roster* the New York Knights have set the bar high for other teams to measure up to as they come bearing the first triple GM roster in league history. The middle of their roster also serves to provide strong support with the always solid IM Krush, the returning 2005 All Star SM Braylovsky, and 2007 All Star IM Jay Bonin. With this strong cast along with the underrated NMs Herman and 2007 All Star Zenyuk to hold down fourth board, this could well be the year where the always playoff bound Knights overcome their post-season demons to capture their first USCL Championship.

I'm sure all of you are dying to know what I personally think will happen this season, but you'll have to wait until all rosters are complete for my pre-season article which will delve into that. There are however a couple of initial impressions I'm happy to share with you readers at this point.


(1) With the first three seasons of the league unequivocally proving that having a GM on the roster guarantees that you cannot win the league, one must question the sanity of a team having not only one but three GMs on the roster!

(2) As GM Shabalov has made the transition from Game of the Year Judge to a league participant, we can definitely expect to see many more high quality games this season as no player will be afraid to play a good game in fear of the nickname Shabalov will brand them with in the Game of the Year Contest.


Ok, Ok so maybe those aren't very helpful impressions. But again, once all of the rosters are announced, hopefully I'll be able to come up with some ideas which will at least tread above the boundary of being complete nonsense. Until then, be sure to keep checking the USCL Website for many updates before the action kicks off in three weeks!


*Although this roster has been 'submitted', teams are permitted to make any changes they want (with no penalty) until their first match begins (as has happened to many teams in previous years).

New Playoff Format for 2008 Season

Now that we will have fourteen teams in the USCL, the playoff format will undergo a dramatic change for the 2008 Season. Below are the new features, followed by the explanations for them.



1. There will now be four teams from each division qualifying for the playoffs instead of three.
2. The first round bye for the Division Champions will be eliminated, with the 1 seed playing the 4 seed and the 2 seed playing the 3 seed in the Quarterfinals.
3. The Championship Match will take place on a weekend, starting in the early afternoon.
4. In playoff matches prior to the Championship Match, when a team has a seeding that is at least two seeds higher than their opponent, that team will receive not only draw odds, but also will have the right to choose colors. (i.e. if 1 plays 2, 1 receives draw odds, but 2 chooses colors. If 1 plays 3 or 4, 1 receives draw odds AND chooses colors).
5. This is a minor rule, unlikely to be utilized, but if one team will be receiving draw odds and the other team will be choosing colors, the team receiving the draw odds has the option of instead giving those draw odds to the opponent for the right to choose colors.



So as you can see there will be quite a few changes for the post-season. I'd like to make sure everyone understands the reasoning behind these new rules:


First, we believe that it's very important that a good number of teams make the playoffs. This is not the NFL, where players are being paid extravagant amounts of money to play. It's important to ensure that in the final few weeks of the season, most teams still have something serious to play for. If we were to allow fewer teams into the playoffs, then in the last weeks of the regular season, some teams could have no chance to compete in the post-season which could result in some uninteresting and boring matches, where teams might have no reason to play their top players.


Secondly, we realize that without receiving a first round bye, it will be more difficult for the Division Winners to make it the USCL Finals. However, we also felt that in the format used in both 2006 and 2007, it was perhaps a bit too easy (three of four made it in those seasons). In order to somewhat compensate for the loss of the first round bye, we have given the Division Winner draw odds and color choice in the Quarterfinals (as is outlined in Rule 4 above), and they will also receive both of those advantages in the Semifinals should they face the third seed. We hope that the balance of these factors will give the Division Winners a big enough post-season edge to properly award their regular season excellence, yet not so large that the lower seeds can't overcome it a reasonable amount of the time.

What does all of this mean? Based on the statistics of what percentage of USCL matches have turned out to be drawn in the first three seasons, along with considering the choice of color to be a very moderate advantage, if all four playoff teams were actually equal in playing strength (unlikely), the first seed would make the Championship Match between 45% and 50% of the time, the second seed would make it between 25% and 30%, the third seed would make it about 15%, and the fourth seed would make it about 10% (these are of course not exact figures, but we believe them to be reasonably close estimates).

We feel that the above percentages are pretty good in terms of adequately awarding those who performed best in the regular season while still giving those who performed well, but not best, a good fighting chance.


Lastly, the Championship Match will now be held on a weekend afternoon to avoid the situation where the match starts late and drags on until two in the morning due to the long tie-break procedure (as has happened the last two years). The tie-break procedure has always been extremely exciting for the fans so we don't wish to eliminate it and felt that this would be the best compromise. The match may still go until around ten or eleven, but it will never go as late as it has in the past.



USCL Commissioner Greg Shahade

Judges' Contest Final Standings

As mentioned, the standings for this were basically finalized last week, but I'll list them for all of you who really care.


1st Place: Dennis Monokroussos (20, 13, 19, 18, 12, 17, 7, 11, 16, 14, 10, 9, 6, 3, 15, 2, 5, 1, 8, 4): 60 Points

2nd Place: Jennifer Shahade (18, 20, 8, 12, 17, 19, 5, 14, 16, 7, 10, 15, 11, 13, 9, 6, 4, 2, 1, 3): 64 Points

3rd Place: Alex Shabalov (20, 12, 16, 15, 17, 10, 18, 9, 13, 19, 4, 14, 11, 8, 3, 2, 7, 6, 1, 5): 66 Points

4th Place: Ron Young (20, 19, 13, 9, 7, 18, 14, 17, 11, 12, 15, 10, 1, 2, 8, 16, 6, 5, 3, 4): 70 Points

5th Place: Robby Adamson (20, 12, 19, 16, 17, 6, 18, 10, 5, 4, 14, 3, 15, 13, 1, 9, 7, 11, 8, 2): 90 Points


and the two non-judges,


Braden Bournival (19, 20, 9, 17, 7, 4, 18, 14, 15, 16, 12, 11, 8, 13, 2, 1, 3, 10, 5, 6): 79 Points

Arun Sharma (20, 19, 18, 11, 12, 15, 5, 9, 13, 17, 16, 4, 6, 3, 2, 10, 7, 1, 8, 14): 80 Points

Game of the Year 1st and 2nd Place Critique

Well I've already gone through the whole routine of explaining why I didn't especially feel either of these games deserved to be at the very top so no need to repeat myself in that regard (and I doubt the victors really want to hear it). I should however note, for posterity's sake, what the Top Five would have been had I been a judge (which I was going to be until a couple of days before the contest when I decided to be perfectly fair, that as a GOTW judge, I shouldn't really be doing GOTY). Nevertheless, here is how the Top Five would have turned out had I not stepped aside:


1st Place (100 Points): FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0 Article

2nd Place (97 Points): GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1

3rd Place (94 Points): SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0

4th Place (90 Points): GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0

5th Place (88 Points): GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1


The basic issue about both of these top two games was that the victor of each seemed to be worse for most of the game -- something which was a real detraction to me since obviously if that's what happened, the quality of such a game can only be so high and as such not really deserving of GOTY to me. The judges however, instead of viewing that as a detraction, viewed the stellar required defensive effort of a worse position by the two winners as more of an attraction. While that's certainly a valid viewpoint, I personally don't feel it's enough to make these games rise to the top level in a contest like this, but I obviously was outvoted in that regard. Let's examine what the judges actually said.


Robby Adamson: I think his comment on the Becerra vs Boskovic game is dead on: the fact that White was better for most of the game kept him from giving the game too high a ranking (which as I said made me feel this game did not deserve to be at the very top). Yet I also felt the Sammour vs Kuljasevic game had a similar detraction (which is why I ranked that game relatively low as well) so I'm not sure where he felt the distinction was between those two games in that regard.


Jennifer Shahade: Well, I feel her comments on the Boskovic game are basically right, but I really can't equate how those feelings would lead to a first place ranking especially when she acknowledges that Becerra made a large blunder with 57. Qd7?? right before the game's end. The Sammour game I think what she said is essentially correct also, but like I said above people seemed to be more in awe of the defensive effort he displayed especially the very unusual defense by his rooks.


Alex Shabalov: Strangely, despite having completely different rankings on these games than pretty much all the judges, I really can't poke any holes in their commentary (plus when you're definitely a far weaker player than the person you disagree with, common sense says you should shut up). I would have hoped that he would have given a bit more insight into the game he ranked as the top overall.


Ron Young: Once again, basically what I felt about both games too, just like most, he was more impressed by the defensive efforts involved along with Sammour's quite unique "rook lift".


Dennis Monokroussos: Basically what I felt about the Boskovic game (and the same ranking I would have given it!). Like most we disagree about how heavy an impact the impressive parts of the Sammour game should have made on the whole, but he and FM Adamson did comment on how "important" this game was, something that seems a tad debatable to me as even if it was from the Finals and ended up forcing the tiebreaker, Boston still did end up losing the match (this game certainly would have moved up several places on my list had the match result been different).


So at long last we've reached the end of the 2007 Game of the Year Contest. I want to thank everyone who took the time to follow this Contest at least a little bit, and I hope it kept you mildly entertained and makes you look forward to Season Four of the USCL which starts in a few months. Lastly, hearty thanks to all five judges who selflessly volunteered their time to judge this contest. As someone who watches every match in the League and as such is reasonably familiar with every game, it's easy for me to forget how much work it probably is to analyze twenty effectively new games and how tough that must be. Even though I critiqued (and insulted on occasion -- by order of the Commissioner!) them every week and happened to disagree with several of the decisions they made, there would have been no contest without their hard work. So thanks once again to them and the readers, and I'll see you in a few months for the start of Season Four!

Game of the Year -- 1st Place

This is the final part in a weekly series of articles which has been counting down to revealing what game was voted as the 2007 USCL Game of the Year. For more information on exactly how this process has worked and the prize information, please refer to: Game of the Year Preview.

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1st Place: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0






















SM Sammour-Hasbun had been fighting an uphill, defensive battle for most of the game, but went on the offensive with the nice tactic 28. Qxe5!!, which forced liquidation into a winning endgame.



Below are the comments from the judges on why they ranked the game where they did and in parentheses is the ranking given by that judge and the number of points awarded for that ranking.


FM Robby Adamson (2nd Place, 19 points): This is the only time I took into consideration the particulars of a match in judging Game of the Year. However, it was critical in that this game was part of the the 2007 USCL Final between the Dallas Destiny and Boston Blitz. At the time this match was going on, the match was tied 1-1 with uncertainty on the remaining board. After playing a bad opening, Sammour overcame a fierce and thematic piece sacrifice on e5. After defending very well, Jorge attacked with his rooks on h2 and g2! As it turned out this victory was needed since the match went to a tiebreak. This game gets the extra credit it deserves because it was an exciting match from the final. I award this nineteen points.



WGM Jennifer Shahade (3rd Place, 18 points): What I love about this game is that after Ne5 I'd be thinking, how do I defend this, this is going to be so annoying, etc. Meanwhile, Jorge just goes straight for the kill and somehow creates a rook battery in the blink of an eye, his king just chilling on e1 like he thought he was castled. The final combination is also very aesthetic and having witnessed Jorge come up with longer combos in one-minute chess, I bet he saw the whole thing despite being in time pressure.



FM Ron Young (4th Place, 17 points): This seemed like a titanic struggle in the making before degenerating into a brilliancy. But cool touches such as doubled rooks on the second rank lift it above the run of banal sacrificial orgies.



FM Dennis Monokroussos (4th Place, 17 points): A very dramatic game, and well-played, too. Sammour-Hasbun got into all sorts of trouble in the opening, especially after the nice (but known) knight sac on e5. White's position after move 20 is almost preposterous, but Jorge managed to hold things together, whip up an attack of his own, and win in the ending. The win was incredibly important and extremely exciting (that's right, kids: always avoid alliteration), and it really wasn't badly played, either. (Except, perhaps, for 27... Bd5. But that's an easy error to make, especially in time trouble, and his position was already starting to crack.)



GM Alex Shabalov (5th Place, 16 points): Cool defense by Sammour-Hasbun, great middlegame tactics, and fine technique; solid top five performer.


Total Score of Sammour-Hasbun vs Kuljasevic: (1st Place, 87 Points)


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Final 2007 Game of the Year Standings:


1st Place (87 Points): SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0 Article

2nd Place (84 Points): GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1 Article

3rd Place (80 Points): FM Marcel Martinez (MIA) vs IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) 1-0 Article

4th Place (76 Points): GM Larry Christiansen (BOS) vs GM Patrick Wolff (SF) 1-0 Article

5th Place (70 Points): IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs GM Hikaru Nakamura (NY) 1-0 Article

6th Place (69 Points): GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) vs GM Pascal Charbonneau (NY) 0-1 Article

7th Place (66 Points): GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs GM Alex Stripunsky (QNS) 1-0 Article

8th Place (61 Points): IM Lev Milman (CAR) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 0-1 Article

9th Place (54 Points): IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs GM Gregory Serper (SEA) 1-0 Article

10th Place (52 Points): IM Bryan Smith (PHI) vs GM Eugene Perelshteyn (BOS) 1-0 Article

11th Place (49 Points): NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs IM Larry Kaufman (BAL) 1-0 Article

12th Place (44 Points): IM Dmitry Zilberstein (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

13th Place (44 Points): NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) vs FM Marc Arnold (NY) 1-0 Article

14th Place (43 Points): IM Eric Tangborn (SEA) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 0-1 Article

15th Place (35 Points): IM Vinay Bhat (SF) vs IM John Bartholomew (DAL) 1-0 Article

16th Place (35 Points): GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Ron Burnett (TEN) 1-0 Article

17th Place (35 Points): IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Mackenzie Molner (NJ) 1-0 Article

18th Place (30 Points): FM Slava Mikhailuk (SEA) vs IM Jonathan Schroer (CAR) 0-1 Article

19th Place (29 Points): IM Josh Friedel (SF) vs IM Lev Milman (CAR) 0-1 Article

20th Place (7 Points): IM Jay Bonin (NY) vs NM Denys Shmelov (BOS) 1-0 Article

Game of the Year -- 2nd Place

This is the final part in a weekly series of articles which has been counting down to revealing what game was voted as the 2007 USCL Game of the Year. For more information on exactly how this process has worked and the prize information, please refer to: Game of the Year Preview.

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2nd Place: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1






















IM Boskovic was forced to sac the exchange after 31. c5 which created a very unbalanced position where he was better able to sift through the complications than his opponent.



Below are the comments from the judges on why they ranked the game where they did and in parentheses is the ranking given by that judge and the number of points awarded for that ranking.


WGM Jennifer Shahade (1st Place, 20 points): In a way, I wish that the Game of the Year Money was divided in a way so that the losing player gets some too - sort of like a bad beat jackpot in poker, where the "winner" gets 80%, the "loser" 10%, and the lucky bystanders share the rest. This game proves that artful chess games require two authors. Becerra went right into the fire with 32. Bc4, even though he knew that it was complicated. Boskovic used the principle of "playing on both sides of the board" (with 45... Bg4, 48... g5, 49... Kh5, etc.) in a position where it would not occur to most people to think that way. Finally when the tactics exploded in the mid 30s till the end of the game, there were countless opportunities for either sides to blunder. It's a testament to how serious both of them took the competition that they rose to the demands of the position and both found one good move after another. Until Becerra didn't that is, when he played 57. Qd7. I'm not sure how this will place in the final standings but congrats for being my number one USCL pick of 2007!



GM Alex Shabalov (1st Place, 20 points): Excellent defensive effort by Dallas #1. The forced exchange sac led to an extremely tense unbalanced middlegame, where Black just turned out to be more precise and showed more determination.



FM Ron Young (3rd Place, 18 points): A great fighting game, no question. Epic. But I want to avoid too touchy-feely an approach to the rankings and anyway, epics get plenty of respect elsewhere.



FM Dennis Monokroussos (8th Place, 13 points): A very exciting game. There's an old joke about marriage, that a man chases a woman until she catches him; that's a good description of this game. (I'm not calling Boskovic a woman, of course!) Becerra fought all over the board to generate play, and it was all Boskovic could do to stay afloat and generate some counterplay of his own. In a way 32. c5 was the decisive moment. Becerra won the exchange and maintained an advantage, but lost control as the position randomized. With 45. c6! he would have been safe and better, but after 45. a4 the tables started turning. 50... Qg4 let White off the hook, but the trend was going Black's way and after 56. Qe8+ and especially 57. Qd7? Black regained the advantage and brought home the point. A real thriller!



FM Robby Adamson (8th Place, 13 points): Oh man did I want to give this game higher marks. It was only after some analysis that I actually moved this game off my Top Three pedastal, and down to where I have it now. Julio played well throughout, but Boskovic hung in there and kept the game unbalanced. Although Julio missed several wins, I was impressed with Boskovic keeping the game goinge. I struggled with this game as I said before. If Boskovic had not been worse for much of the game, it would have ended up higher. I award this game thirteen points.


Total Score of Becerra vs Boskovic: (2nd Place, 84 Points)

Game of the Year Final Two Game Breakdown

Well I could delve into all the statistics of how wrong I was about where these games would wind up, but you've all had a large enough dosage of that to really be required to listen to more of it so I'll instead (for better or worse) try to give a bit of insight/guess which of the two remaining games will finally come out on top. For reference these are the games and their articles:


Semifinals: GM Julio Becerra (MIA) vs IM Drasko Boskovic (DAL) 0-1 Article

Finals: SM Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) vs IM Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) 1-0 Article


To try to figure out which game will actually win let's list a few pros and cons of each game.


Becerra vs Boskovic:

Pros:

1. Boskovic was obviously the underdog and provided an impressive defensive effort to fight back from a position which had seemed a bit worse for him for the majority of the game

2. Becerra doesn't lose very often in the league and even less often when he has White.

3. Being from the Semifinals, the game obviously was much more important than your average game, and the match seemed to be trending in Miami's favor early on.


Cons:

1. As mentioned, Boskovic was worse for most of the game so he obviously couldn't win this without some cooperation from his opponent.

2. Even though the match seemed close early on, by the time the truly exciting portions of this game started, Dallas had actually already clinched a match win.



Sammour-Hasbun vs Kuljasevic

Pros:

1. Very atypical game with some unique rook maneuvering by Sammour-Hasbun.

2. A reasonably deep, quite tricky, and aesthetically pleasing tactic in time pressure was the route to White's victory.

3. White's position seemed like such a mess for most of the game, and it clearly was a stellar defensive effort by Sammour-Hasbun to give himself any chance.

4. Without this win, Boston would have been unable to force the blitz tiebreaker.


Cons:

1. Like the above game, Sammour-Hasbun was worse for a good portion of the game and without some cooperation would obviously not have been able to pull off the win.

2. This win did force the blitz tiebreaker, but didn't wind up changing the match result.



In several aspects these games seem very similar (i.e. in both a nice defensive effort helped the winner fight back from a worse position). Although I hadn't anticipated either game getting a first place ranking, these two games did collectively manage to garner two of them, and I feel the Sammour-Hasbun game is much more likely to have gotten those than the Boskovic game as I simply don't get that first place vibe from the latter game. That, along with the fact that I think the Sammour game really was more interesting (albeit much shorter) due to the very unusual White piece configuration and opening, I think it's the more likely game to come out on top. As such I think Sammour-Hasbun vs Kuljasevic wins 65% of the time.

Tune in the next few days, to see if I can at least end this contest with a correct prediction (after all I certainly didn't get any predictions correct in the middle!).

Judges' Contest 3rd Place

So as I hinted, with a week left in the contest, pretty much everything is determined as FM Monokroussos is guaranteed to take the top spot, WGM Shahade and GM Shabalov are forced to take second and third (with Shahade almost certain to get second except for one circumstance where they will be tied), FM Young will take fourth, and FM Adamson will bring up the rear. Unfortunately, for myself not only did I not manage to win, I didn't even manage to beat out the other non-judge as FM Bournival is guaranteed to finish one point ahead of me. Here are the exact standings.


1st Place: Dennis Monokroussos (20, 13, 19, 18, 12, 17, 7, 11, 16, 14, 10, 9, 6, 3, 15, 2, 5, 1): 51 Points (Rankings Left: 4, 8; Guaranteed to finish with 60 Points)

2nd Place: Jennifer Shahade (18, 20, 8, 12, 17, 19, 5, 14, 16, 7, 10, 15, 11, 13, 9, 6, 4, 2): 61 Points (Rankings Left: 1, 3)

3rd Place: Alex Shabalov (20, 12, 16, 15, 17, 10, 18, 9, 13, 19, 4, 14, 11, 8, 3, 2, 7, 6): 61 Points (Rankings Left: 1, 5)

4th Place: Ron Young (20, 19, 13, 9, 7, 18, 14, 17, 11, 12, 15, 10, 1, 2, 8, 16, 6, 5): 66 Points (Rankings Left: 3, 4; Guaranteed to finish with 70 Points)

5th Place: Robby Adamson (20, 12, 19, 16, 17, 6, 18, 10, 5, 4, 14, 3, 15, 13, 1, 9, 7, 11): 83 Points (Rankings Left: 2, 8; Guaranteed to finish with 90 Points)


and the two non-judges,


Arun Sharma (20, 19, 18, 11, 12, 15, 5, 9, 13, 17, 16, 4, 6, 3, 2, 10, 7, 1): 61 Points (Rankings Left: 8, 14; Guaranteed to finish with 80 Points)

Braden Bournival (19, 20, 9, 17, 7, 4, 18, 14, 15, 16, 12, 11, 8, 13, 2, 1, 3, 10): 71 Points (Rankings Left: 5, 6; Guaranteed to finish with 79 Points)


Be sure not to miss the long awaited announcement of the Game of the Year winner!

Game of the Year 3rd Place Critique

Another big surprise to me as I'd really been anticipating (and hoping frankly, given that I felt it was clearly the most deserving) that this game was going to take the top spot. Even though I turned out to be wrong (I did cut my losses though by retiring from the predicting business in this contest a few weeks ago), this once again was basically what I had expected from this game all along -- that it would get some very high rankings but that some number of the judges would be turned off by the fact that this game was nearly all preparation and would give it a non-stellar ranking. While I disagree with the rational behind why they did so, it's clear that many others seem to share that basic opinion (which naturally severely hinders my ability to denounce it!) so it will have to fall into the category of agreeing to disagree. The main reason I disagree with that assessment is mainly due to something WGM Shahade basically stated below. That is, in the USCL with awards like Game of the Week, Game of the Year, All Stars, MVP, etc. which mostly seem to recognize players for individual efforts, we might often forget that the USCL is, at heart, a team event. As such, a game such as this which was really in some sense more of a "team effort" (and by transition the overall match), than any other USCL game that I know of (obviously preparation has likely paid off in several games, but I doubt it has to the degree it seemed to in this game) really epitomizes a large part of what the USCL really is (and should be) about. Add to the fact that this game was in the playoffs against the defending champions while being faced with draw odds and happened to be the key to the match victory, it only seems to point to a very high ranking for this game to me. In any case, let's examine what the judges actually said.


Dennis Monokroussos: Well I think the comment is basically dead on, and I agree with the ranking so not much to say here.


Jennifer Shahade: As I stated above, I really like her inference about how she felt the team aspect of this game could be viewed as a positive in many ways rather than as a negative like most seemed to, and I basically agree with her ranking also so not much to complain about here.


Ron Young: A very salient point that many prize-winning games are largely the result of preparation. Since he admits that, and infers that he "won't teach" Martinez to not reveal things of that nature, it surprises me that he didn't rank this game higher.


Alex Shabalov: Since everyone is gushing about how beautiful/strong the 22. Bh6 shot was, I'm surprised that he would use the word "unusual" for it. I'm also not really sure about his claim that 25... Re8 was the cause of Black's downfall as my thought had always been that Black was already busted after the Bh6 shot.


Robby Adamson: As I stated above, I don't really agree with his rational for giving this game a mediocre ranking, but again I certainly can understand it.


Be sure to tune in to the final article as the 2007 Game of the Year Contest finally reaches its conclusion!