Monday, August 25, 2008
Monday Night Prediction -- Week 1
The inaugural match of the USCL season is always by nature one of the most interesting, treating us to a display by players generally unknown to us (at least in the league aspect). This match is a strangely unbalanced one rating-wise, with most past expansion teams looking to get a good jump off the starting blocks to help ease any initial butterflies and signify that they are for real. Nevertheless, this match is what it is. While one team has a distinct rating advantage, there are nevertheless two things which I really feel to be true:
(1) Never take anything for granted in the USCL
(2) A player's OTB strength can definitely vary quite a bit (either higher or lower) in comparison to their internet strength.
Of course, taking these considerations together might suggest that guessing match results in general is a fair crap shoot, and in a league as balanced as this, it probably is! But me and the other predictors (Bioniclime and OrangeKing) don't get paid to not try. However, given as I said these players are completely unfamiliar in the league, I'll simply go with the purely mathematical approach for guessing the board results for this match.
Board 1: Slight Edge AZ
Board 2: Even
Board 3: Edge AZ
Board 4: Slight Edge AZ
So I suppose it won't be hard to guess who I'll be picking to win from that. But given the variance I think is involved with expansion teams in general, you simply can never know how people will react in their first ever match, I'll go with the variance happy approach of the smallest victory margin and pick Arizona 2.5 – 1.5
(FM Ron Young predicts Arizona to win 3 – 1).